Flopped A Flush But I Have My Doubts...

[Scarmiglio]

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You have to at least call the turn but I am 3-betting because I am far from convinced that I am behind. It isn't because one of them couldn't have also flopped a flush but because they most likely believe that you couldn't (~117:1).

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While it is true that your chances of flopping a flush when you hold 2 suited cards is less than 1%, this number no longer applies on a mono-suited flop. In other words, the reason why your chance of flopping a flush is only 1% is because one of the requirements of flopping a flush is a mono-suited flop and this doesn't happen very often. Once the flop comes out mono-suited, the chance that someone has flopped a flush is much higher than 1%.

That being said. Limp this preflop please. I would call the turn and call a non-spade, non-board pairing river. While it is very likely that one of your opponents has a flush, there's like a 30% chance that it's smaller than yours. With 20bb in the pot you have odds to call. It may not be worth much, but you also have an extra out to a nut hand where you will likely get payed off big time by the caller with the A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. FWIW - the likelihood that the caller has the A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] makes me feel better about playing against the other flopped flush.

[Hyperrrprank]

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Typical 4/8 live fullring game.
Hero raises 8 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] OTB after 4 limpers, blinds both call (7 handed).

Flop: 2 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (14 SB)
Checked to MP who bets, a caller or two, and Hero raises. Blind 3-bets, EP caps. 1 caller and Hero calls (4 handed).

Turn: 3 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (~17 BB)
Blind bets, EP raises, MP calls, Hero folds (3 handed).

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Really looking at this action, I can't see how we're good at this point. The real key is the blind/EP interaction. After the blind 3-bet the flop, EP capped it. If the blind had a set or 2-pair, or even a small flush, we'd expect him to check to EP a fair amount of the time, since no one sane is capping this flop without either a huge flush or at worst a draw to the nuts. When the blind bets into EP on the turn, we can limit his range further and come pretty close to putting him on a decent flush for sure. EP raising this confirms, for me, that we're facing at least one other made flush.

If either of these opponents has shown major aggression elsewhere, I think I try to call them down as cheaply as I can. If they are anywhere from standard to tight, I'd probably call the single raise on the turn and CONSIDER folding if it didn't slow down after that. When figuring whether the flush someone has could be smaller we need to remember that they are going to be afraid of the same hands we are.

[Fnord]

Pay more attention to your opponents and you'll feel better about either laying this down or taking it to the felt.

Also, the pre-flop raise is just GAMB00L.

[KitCloudkicker]

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Also, the pre-flop raise is just GAMB00L.

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i highly doubt its +EV or -EV either way.

[strategery]

it's -ev if you're considering folding here

[chesspain]

There is no way I'm folding this unless the board pairs or a fourth spade falls.

[Gap23Razor]

raising preflop is okay, you have position, enough callers and the raise throws out some misdirection about your holdings plus makes it harder for the others to lay down on later streets...

one gapped suited are hands that often take a lot of money to play, as your winner doesn't usually come in until the turn or river, unlike low pocket pairs the you can fold after the flop if they miss...and because one gapper suited are long shots, you need high payoffs to justify playing them...i look to win around 15-20 sb's when playing these hands

so i am struck by the inconsistency...no only do we play a long shot, but we double down by raising preflop...but then we back down when we get the action needed to justify playing the hand...play it all or nothing

[Fnord]

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Also, the pre-flop raise is just GAMB00L.

[/ QUOTE ]

i highly doubt its +EV or -EV either way.

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So in other words, you're saying that we're just GAMB00Ling without an edge here? [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[Ricks]

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[ QUOTE ]
You have to at least call the turn but I am 3-betting because I am far from convinced that I am behind. It isn't because one of them couldn't have also flopped a flush but because they most likely believe that you couldn't (~117:1).

[/ QUOTE ]

While it is true that your chances of flopping a flush when you hold 2 suited cards is less than 1%, this number no longer applies on a mono-suited flop. In other words, the reason why your chance of flopping a flush is only 1% is because one of the requirements of flopping a flush is a mono-suited flop and this doesn't happen very often. Once the flop comes out mono-suited, the chance that someone has flopped a flush is much higher than 1%.



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I think that you misunderstood my point here. The point I was trying to make is that your opponents are not likely to believe that anyone flopped a flush at this point.

[James.]

7handed raising pf def. shows profit. in this situation the blinds must be pretty loose for it to realize our edge 7handed.

6handed it's close to breakeven or slightly profitable. we certainly don't have a deficit against most live, loose limping ranges.

the true edge depends on the actual ranges of those that have limped. i would think at least 3 have close to random ranges.