Question about variance

[gholizad]

Alright, this is not one of those donkey bad beat brag posts but I have lately been through unreasonable downswing which is really annoying. I have been a winning player with relatively high ROI and I dont think my play has changed a lot and pretty sure is improving everyday.

Now, are the games getting tougher? Maybe. At least the bubble stage is not as easy as before, that I can say.

OK, I have read the Anthology about the variance stuff which basically says you can run very very bad and still be normal. But what's the most downswing you guys have had? Is 40 buy-in downswing normal in 100 games or so?

[PinkMartini]

I've lost 25 out of 30 buyins once, and that was definitely my worst. A lot of the time I'd be seeing maybe two decent hands (AQ+, 66+, KQs) out of my first 30 - 35 hands, and I wasn't doing anything differently. So yes, variance can be sick and make you want to throw up, but I'm sure these downsings happen to everyone.

[DevinLake]

Here's something I wrote for the new FAQ...please critique.

Variance and Downswings

Sit N Go’s can be a very frustrating game. With the escalating blind structures, it turns into a showdown game very quickly. A large part of your short term success depends on your ability to win these show downs.

It is inevitable that you will go on hot streaks were you win the majority of these showdowns. You will win most your coinflips, 60/40s, and even 30/70s. You’ll be on top of the world, thinking you are the best Sit N Go player in the world. You’ll expect every session to be a winning one. But, disaster will strike.

You will begin to lose all those showdowns you were previously winning. Every time you shove, you’ll be called. Someone will always have a top 5% hand in the blinds. The times you have one of those top 5% hands, it’ll still lose the showdown. Now, you’ll be feeling like you’ve forgotten how to win at Sit N Go’s and you’ll feel that every session will be a losing one.

The key is to keep playing you’re A-game and continue to study and strive to get better. People will often start making bad adjustments when they are running bad. Every one is different. Some will push to wide, others will call to tight or some combination of those. But, if you continue to make good decisions, good long term results should follow.

You can use the following resources to better understand variance and whether your current downswing is in the realm of normality.

- A small FAQ on Variance.
- RVG's ROI Simulator.

[cokkblock]

Nicely written, Devin. In the past few months I have felt all the emotions that you have explained and to see it written down really puts everything into perspective. Of course I'm not always playing my A game, and I'm not perfect at ICM, but those are definitely good points as to what I should be focusing on to help improve the chances of getting out of my downswing.

[Kevin8423]

[ QUOTE ]
People will often start making bad adjustments when they are running bad.

[/ QUOTE ]

All of it sounds good, but you might want to stress this line more. You can go from a winning player to a player on a downswing to a losing player when you start changing things, and it could be devastating to a player who doesn't realize this.

[luthar]

[ QUOTE ]
I have been a winning player with relatively high ROI

[/ QUOTE ]
I'm sure you know it implies you have alot of SnG done! (1000+)

[ QUOTE ]

But what's the most downswing you guys have had? Is 40 buy-in downswing normal in 100 games or so?

[/ QUOTE ]

No, not if you play lower limits. Usually when i have an OOTM set (4 loses), I check every HH and find out what happened. If all my chips went in with a 60/40 favorite, tought luck it happens.

Worst swing ever was 10buyin and happenned twice in last 900 games.

Might wanna consider putting hands up here [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[gholizad]

Yes I have 1000+ sng's played. Well, the way I play is super tight until bubble then apply ICM. So basically all my downswings come from bubbling since I rarely bust out early unless it is a bad beat.

One more question, how should the "SitnGos finish position" curve look like on sharkscope? Mine looks like a gaussian with peak at 3rd place.

[zacd]

[ QUOTE ]
Yes I have 1000+ sng's played. Well, the way I play is super tight until bubble then apply ICM. So basically all my downswings come from bubbling since I rarely bust out early unless it is a bad beat.

One more question, how should the "SitnGos finish position" curve look like on sharkscope? Mine looks like a gaussian with peak at 3rd place.

[/ QUOTE ]

i think a 4th place peak w/ 3rd and 1st the next highest is optimal but I'm not sure. 99% sure 4th place needs to be ur highest

[luthar]

[ QUOTE ]
Yes I have 1000+ sng's played. Well, the way I play is super tight until bubble then apply ICM. So basically all my downswings come from bubbling since I rarely bust out early unless it is a bad beat.

One more question, how should the "SitnGos finish position" curve look like on sharkscope? Mine looks like a gaussian with peak at 3rd place.

[/ QUOTE ]

Might wanna get a lil bit loose at beginning then.

For info, here are graphs from my TM:

[jafeather]

[ QUOTE ]
It is inevitable that you will go on hot streaks where you win the majority of these showdowns.

[/ QUOTE ]

<----nit