5.5: Maniac goes all in at the beginning, call justified?

[BradleyT]

Those saying fold 60/40s are funny.

If you have KK and are up against a nit you're worse than a 60/40.

KK = 57.19%
{AA,KK,QQ,AKs,AKo} = 42.8%

And none of you saying fold 60/40's are ever going to fold KK the first hand.

[Deewhizzle]

with a guy like that im calling with any pair 8 or higher,kj,kq,a-10,aj,aq,ak. other than that i fold until the blinds get larger.

[dfan]

See http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showfl...ue#Post10805034

This has been discussed and debated several times over the years, both for sngs and mtts. In addition to the arguments made above, I've also noticed that when top pros are asked this question they almost invariably agree that passing up edges like this is a very -$EV play.

Remember there is no such thing as a "safe" way to accumulate chips in sngs. Even the very best players are able to accumulate enough chips to make the money only about 40% of the time in stt's. That means the cumulative risk of the decisions and moves they have to make, playing optimally, puts them at a 60% risk of going broke before even reaching the low payout of 3rd place. No skill edge can eliminate the randomness due to incomplete information and random cards to come determining outcomes. That is your edge- recognizing these significantly +$EV gambles and then taking them.

[jschell]

1.) Hero has better than a 60/40 on average here. Villian would have to have a top 10% hand for that to be the case. Take Villian down to a top 25% hand and Hero is 65/35 to win, which is more realistic given that Villian seems to be a bit laggy.
2.) Everyone is forgetting about the pot odds. Hero is getting about 1.6:1 to call.

Ok, it's early, but you're going to fold getting 1.6:1 as a 65/35 favorite?

[simonpoker]

dbling up early on is very profitable the profit decreases as the ammount of players decreases.That said you jsut gotta call it.

[AMT]

if hes shoved the last few hands, folding this would be terrible.

[FuriousD]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Taking 60/40s early on is actually bad, and you should avoid them. You get your edge from play during the higher blinds, not from flipping with a slight lead early on. You can easily find better spots than a 60/40 if you just wait.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think this is correct.

Assume 1st hand of sng, opponent pushes and you know you are a 60/40 favorite.

Your fold equity is .1111 x $45 = $5.00.
If you call and win your ICM equity is .2028.
Your overall prize equity for calling=.60x.2028=.122 ICM equity x $45 = $5.48. So calling is worth 48 cents on average.

In general, if you fold the first hand as a 60% favorite you are throwing away an expected increase of .1222-.1111=.0111=1.1 percentage points of ICM equity. Or looked at another way, you are passing up an expected percentage increase in your equity of 9.4% (.122/.1111). That's quite a bit.

In this particular case AKs vs QJs is a 63.5% favorite. So if you could somehow know your opponent had QJs then your call equity is .635*.2028=.129 x $45 = $5.80, so your call is worth 80 cents, or roi=14.5% of your buy-in (including rake).

[/ QUOTE ]

And that doesn't even account for the money already in the pot, right?

[dfan]

[ QUOTE ]

And that doesn't even account for the money already in the pot, right?

[/ QUOTE ]
Correct. I did my calculations assuming no dead money in the pot because I was addressing the misguided notion that a player should pass up 60/40 chances to double up early in a sng. When you are that much of a favorite AND are getting pot odds, it isn't even close. A fold is just giving away money.

[shbball7]

i would call quickly

[j_step]

call, hes all in everyhand.