Exploiting a Secret

[mojo42]

Suppose you uncovered a mathematical secret about poker that added an expected value of .25 BBs / 100 to your game. The gain would apply to any player who used it. You are certain the secret is mathematically correct. You are certain either a) you alone know the secret or b) others may know the secret but are unwilling t make it public knowledge (1/1M chance).

The secret is not cheating, however, if it became public knowledge any could use it, and the public rooms and online shops could make a simple one-time adjustment to prevent those who know it from having a small advantage against those who don't.

You realize that it may be possible to gain financially from selling the secret, but you are unwilling to place yourself in any danger.

What is the most +Ev way to exploit your knowledge?

[Cueballmania]

If everyone at your table knew, where does the extra .25BB/100 for each player come from?

[mojo42]

If everyone knew the secret then it would not be an advantage. Assume the .25 BB to be a maximum limit based on the number of people that know about it, such that when there is 1, the advantage is .25, but when everyone knows, the advantage is zero. When a large percentage of the people know, say 1/3, the advantage is still there .16 in an amount that the casinos could eliminate it.

The secret would not yield an exact .25 every 100 hands nor would it cash-out at every table, but like all things would be an average over the long term.

The question is not about arguing the practicality of such a proposition (it is obviously ficticious), but how to exploit such a secret *given* then inital conditions.

[eof]

Sell it for $99 a pop

[chief_]

[ QUOTE ]

What is the most +Ev way to exploit your knowledge?

[/ QUOTE ]

the knowledge itself is most valuable in a money sense in games of the highest limits, but it would only be most valuable to you there if you were already a winning player.

from a selling/marketing standpoint contact a trusted friend of yours who is a winning player at the highest limits possible. explain the secret to him, and work out an equity split of some sort between the two of you.

it may be more valuable to never tell anyone about it, and just work your way up to the best game you can use that added .25 bonus in. once people other than yourself know, you cant control what is done with that knowledge, eventually it may become worthless.

[mterry]

I think it would be important how you uncovered the secret. If you feel you got really lucky somehow, then you should be less likely to expose it. However, if it only required intelligence, then there will be someone as smart as you who will also figure it out. Therefore, you should be more apt to capitalize on what you know until it becomes public knowledge.

Also, once everyone else at your table knows it will be a very short time before it becomes public knowledge if it isn't already.