400NLHUCASH trip aces getting raised on the river

[Hoopster81]

fold

your hand is face up and he doesn't expect you to lay it down

[KexChoklad123]

1) You can discount some of the hands in your range because of how you got the to the river, mainly hands you lose to

2) He is almost never bluffing, so the question becomes how often is he value shoving worse. Not so often IMO, I would fold but not like

[Isura]

why did you bet river?

[Vinetou]

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why did you bet river?

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I expect him to call with a lone 9 or any other pair and weaker aces, because he knows I am capable of making crazy bluffs. It is a value bet and I would do it against unknown also. I understand arguments for checking though.

[Kharlog]

This is a close situation. I'd probably call (getting 1:3). Against a range I put him to: (99-77, AJ, A9s-A7s, JTs) I get equity of 21:78. You told the opponent could bluff sometimes and maybe even valuebet thin with AT (unlikely). If those consist more than 4% of time then calling is correct.

[Isura]

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why did you bet river?

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I expect him to call with a lone 9 or any other pair and weaker aces, because he knows I am capable of making crazy bluffs. It is a value bet and I would do it against unknown also. I understand arguments for checking though.

[/ QUOTE ]

When you bet this river your hand can beat all those hands. Does he think you can make a valuebet with KK here? I think its more likely he has nothing and might bluff. FWIW I'd snap call this all-in if I was betting since I think a bet is more likely to induce some stupid bluff than a weak call from this type of player.

[xSCWx]

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why did you bet river?

[/ QUOTE ]

I expect him to call with a lone 9 or any other pair and weaker aces, because he knows I am capable of making crazy bluffs. It is a value bet and I would do it against unknown also. I understand arguments for checking though.

[/ QUOTE ]

When you bet this river your hand can beat all those hands. Does he think you can make a valuebet with KK here? I think its more likely he has nothing and might bluff. FWIW I'd snap call this all-in if I was betting since I think a bet is more likely to induce some stupid bluff than a weak call from this type of player.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree that the liklihood of a stupid bluff here is more likely than people are giving credit for. The hero's hand is extremely underrepresented. The villain's hand looks to me like either JT, 88, A8 (maybe), or complete air. It also seems possible that the villain planned on firing at the turn but picked up a club draw and chose to take the free card.

Your read on the villain seems to support possibility that he could make a move here with air.

If you don't intend to call in this situation then you should be betting or raising earlier in the hand. There isn't any point in underrepresenting a hand like this if you plan on dropping when the villain fires back at you.

Edit: I also find that 77, 99, A7, A9 are all very unlikely in this scenario. His min raise on the flop shows quite a bit of strength while hardly raising the value of the pot. In my experience this line is either a set up for trying to bet you out on a later street or to start building the pot early.

It looks strongly to me like he either:

A) Picked up a draw on the turn and didn't want to risk getting shoved on if he fired a second barrel (I wouldn't dismiss 86c or 65c against a tricky villain, although 86c probably shoves the turn).
B) Hit the river big time.
C) Decided at the river that your hand looked weak enough to steal the pot from.

[muxplust]

hero calls and loses....

[Vinetou]

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hero calls and loses....

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Ty for being an idiot.

[Vinetou]

Nice post, xSCWx. You took time for this, ty. But you came up with some pretty strange holdings, like 86s? You think he minraised bluff on the turn? B and C option seems more likely than A, I think.