Week 10 Early NCAA Lines

[Jim T]

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Here's the problem with taking VA Tech, they have shown no ability to throw the ball, which is where GA Techs defensive weakness lies. In addition GA Tech is better rested, at home, and not coming off a devastating loss with a team full of head cases and crappy QBs.

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Bingo. Georgia Tech's rush defense is one of the best in the country and their secondary is the big weakness on the defensive side of the ball. Matt Ryan lit them up, but Virginia Tech doesn't an accurate enough QB to burn them.

Also, you can't just look at Dwyer's two worst games and evaluate him that way. The game before that, he ran the ball 15 times for 75 yards against Virginia and he's a young back that's continually improving. He's no Tashard Choice, but the dropoff's a lot less than you're making it out to be. Also, Rashaun Grant is playing against Virginia Tech, he missed some practices, but he's expected to be ready to go by game day.

The way I'd cap this game is overall talent: +0.5 for Georgia Tech, home advantage on a Thursday night: +3.5, Choice injury: -1.5, matchups: +3, letdown for VT after losing last week +1.5. That would leave Georgia Tech as a 7 point favorite. I think you can bring that down a little bit, since it will be a low-scoring game, but I still think GT should be getting at least 4 points here and probably 5. All these people who are saying "the wrong team's getting the points" haven't followed ACC football closely at all this year.

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Sorry, but as of yesterday GT was saying Grant may be out the rest of the year. I've heard of someone coming back from injuries early, but ....

I didn't "take Dwyer's worst games of the year", I took the most recent games. How about just taking his record vs ACC teams: 28 rushes 96 yards (3.4 yards/carry) 2 TDs. Not exactly spectacular, and his coaches must have agreed: he didn't get any carries against Maryland or Miami earlier this month. Bottom line - he's a freshman 3rd stringer who has some potential ... but probably not ready for prime time until at least next year.

As for VT's QBs, while perhaps more erratic, Glennon has a higher QB rating than Matt Ryan this year. My breakdown:

GT passing game vs VT passing defense: Edge VT
GT rushing vs VT rushing def: Big VT edge
VT passing vs GT pass def: VT edge
VT rushing vs GT rush def: GT edge
Special teams: Even
Coaching: VT edge
Intangibles: GT edge

4-2 VT. How VT responds to the BC loss is the biggest concern. Fortunately, even though this is a thursday game VT is getting a full week to recover since they also played BC on Thursday.

We're clearly focusing on different things, which is of course fine and normal. However you don't seem to consider GT's offensive issues and how they will effect the game at all. You keep talking about GT's run defense (#8 in the nation), but how about the Hokie run defense (#9 in the nation) being able to play against the 3rd string?