3+1 NFL Challenge - 2006: Week 12

[Lori]

405/406 u43
411/412 u47.5
415/416 o36.5
419/420 u43

Well, picking sides seemed useless this week, everything was how I'd capped it, give or take 2 pts and although that says that my capping has improved (or got luckier more likely), it doesn't help me pick.
So here are some totals:

$400 Bengals/Browns under 43

I put this into my super 8-ball and this is what it told me would happen:

1st Quarter

15:00 Bengals kickoff out of endzone, Touchback to CLE 20

14:54 1 10 CLE 20 <font color="blue"> 34 Droughns </font> run to right side for 3 yards.

14:24 2 7 CLE 23 <font color="blue"> 34 Droughns </font> run to left side for 4 yards.

13:50 3 3 CLE 27 <font color="blue"> 34 Droughns </font> run through center for 3 yards.

13:19 1 10 CLE 30 <font color="blue"> 34 Droughns </font> run to right side for 5 yards.

12:44 2 5 CLE 35 <font color="blue">34 Droughns </font> run to right side for 4 yards.

12:12 3 1 CLE 39 <font color="blue"> 34 Droughns </font> run through center for 1 yard.
..........
5:03 1 GOAL CIN 4 <font color="blue"> 34 Droughns </font> run to left side, for 3 yards. <font color="red"> 34 Droughns </font> was injured on the play his return is probable.

4:49 2 GOAL CIN 1 <font color="blue"> 9 Frye </font> pass intendend for <font color="blue"> unknown </font> was intercepted in endzone. Not run back.

4:39 1 10 CIN 1 <font color="blue"> 9 Palmer </font> pass complete long center to <font color="blue"> 85 C.Johnson </font> for 99 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Well, you get the idea. I don't think the Brown's, er, limited playbook is going to help them score, even less so if "34 Droughns " is out.


$300 Saints/Falcons under 47.5

Last week it was based on a hunch, but I'm happier this time. The Saints game was headed well under until some 4th quarter silliness put it in danger. I believe that Saints games are over-pointed.

$200 Bears/Pats over 36.5

I think some people/books/whatever are still living with last season's Bears. This season they have produced a lot more offense, although recent weeks have shown that they're certainly capable of struggling. I think this line is a bit of an overreaction to last week.

$100 Giants/Titans under 43

Seems a sensible enough pick. Either the Giants stuff the Titans by 30 pts early on and ease down, or they dont stuff the Titans by 30 pts early on (The Titans have shown resistance at times) and win 17-7.

Lori

[VarlosZ]

401/402o
413/414o
308
407/408u


Jets/Texans OVER 39.5 -- This is the Lock of the Year as far as I'm concerned (which means I like it to go over, say, 62% of the time). Both teams are considerably better on offense than defense, the weather is clear, and even their special teams favor offensive production. Granted, both teams have averaged almost exactly 39.5 total points points per game this year, but that's mostly to do with the fact they've both played very defense-oriented schedules so far. This line is based on first-level thinking -- use second level thinking and put yourself in a strongly +EV spot.

Panther/Redskins OVER 36 -- Jason Campbell is better than the average backup, and is probably an immediate upgrade over Brunell. As such, Washington is still a strongly offense-oriented team, while Carolina is much closer to neutral than most people probably realize. This line is six or seven points too low.

Chiefs -1 over Broncos -- The Chiefs, like the Broncos, are monsters at home, and Jay Cutler will be starting for Denver. Even though Plummer has been very mediocre this year, and Cutler should have a succesful career, Jay Cutler is still a rookie, in his first start, against a very good defense on the road. Besides, KC and Denver haven basically played at the same level so far this year, so even if Plummer were starting a one point spread would be pretty ridiculous.

Vikings/Cardinals UNDER 38.5 -- Arizona is somewhat defense-oriented, Minnesota is very defense-oriented. Line should be more like 36.5.

[Lori]

[ QUOTE ]
Vikings/Cardinals UNDER 38.5 -- Arizona is somewhat defense-oriented, Minnesota is very defense-oriented. Line should be more like 36.5.

[/ QUOTE ]

I overlooked this game entirely somehow, I'm not changing my picks because I don't do that stuff, but I'll probably bet it.

Lori

[VarlosZ]

Thanks for the vote of confidence. Incidentally, I like all of your picks this week. Not as much as I like my four, obviously, but I think they're winners. Cleveland, in particular, has a defense that's really coming together, and Quarterback that's looking like a lost cause.

[iuschmeltz]

410
420
400
411

[VarlosZ]

[ QUOTE ]
Chiefs -1 over Broncos -- The Chiefs, like the Broncos, are monsters at home, and Jay Cutler will be starting for Denver. Even though Plummer has been very mediocre this year, and Cutler should have a succesful career, Jay Cutler is still a rookie, in his first start, against a very good defense on the road. Besides, KC and Denver haven basically played at the same level so far this year, so even if Plummer were starting a one point spread would be pretty ridiculous.

[/ QUOTE ]

Oops, apparently Cutler is probably going to get the start next week, not today. My bad. Still, I like the pick.

[mmbt0ne]

304
400
414
420

[34TheTruth34]

[ QUOTE ]
4:49 2 GOAL CIN 1 9 Frye pass intendend for unknown was intercepted in endzone. Not run back.

4:39 1 10 CIN 1 9 Palmer pass complete long center to 85 C.Johnson for 99 yards, TOUCHDOWN.



[/ QUOTE ]

-19 yard sack at 4:45 that took 6 seconds?

[Kevmath]

418
422
307
409

[chev9]

418
over 306/307
402
411