[PLO8] I play retarded, comments on river?

[garcia1000]

Hey guys,

This is a home game. So, yes, I know 9987ss is a horrible starting hand and should be folded, etc. etc.

Blinds are $1/2, effective stacks are $200, 6 handed.
My image is the second-tightest player at the table (there is one guy who is so tight, he folded AA46 preflop UTG+1 when UTG straddled to $10 because 'the side cards didn't fit the aces well enough). Anyway, I am getting lots of respect.

Villian in this hand is a smart player, playing on the loose side (this is standard since it's a home game and all). He hasn't gotten too out of line.

I'm on the button with 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].

UTG straddles to $4. UTG+1 calls, CO folds, and I raise to $16. SB folds, BB folds, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls.


Flop: J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (Pot: $51)
(This flop is not a good fit for my hand, but it's a good one to C-bet)

UTG checks, UTG+1 checks, I bet $40. UTG calls, UTG+1 folds.


Turn: 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (Pot: $131)

UTG checks, I check.


River: 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (Pot: $131)
Now, I have the nut straight on a paired board.

UTG bets $131 which is effectively all-in.

What do I do?

[Gar Pike]

If you're going to play like that, call on the river and show 'em your nut str8. this would be solely for meta-game purposes, so that they'll be more inclined not to give you so much respect in the future.

I mean, really...even I know better, and I suck horribly.

Why didn't you pot the turn?

regards

Gar

[Buzz]

Hi Garcia - Keep in mind that pot-limit is not my primary game.

1-C(43,8)/C(45,8) = 0.673 so that it's about two to one that neither of your two opponents has a jack after this flop, assuming no bias for or against jacks.

But when you bet and UTG calls, regardless of his loose gambling tendencies, that has to be a bit scary. However, UTG did not bet and then did not check-raise.

My guess is UTG wants to create the illusion of loose, fearless play, and he hopes to out-play you by being more fearless than you on the river.

I don't think he has a jack - but if you don't bet the turn he won't think you have a jack either - and then he'll bet the river, playing you for weak/tight.

So the question is, how much does it take to convince him that you have a good hand and will not be scared away.

If you both started with about 200 bucks, you both should have roughly a pot sized bet left. Might that do it? I'd give it a shot.

Bet the pot ($131) on the turn.

Once you check, he's probably going to bet the river, regardless of what it is, hoping to out-play you. (You won't know for certain why he is betting and might fold a better hand - or if low becomes possible on the river, he probably will have a better low than you).

So I think you should take that play (of his betting the pot on the river) away from him, instead putting him under pressure by betting the pot on the turn.

At any rate, what do you do now that you checked the turn and UTG bet the river?

First of all, hate yourself for letting UTG sneak in there with a low. Then hate yourself some more for letting UTG steal your thunder.

But finally, bite the bullet and call. (1) He probably has low and thus you're betting two to win one, but I think you'll win the one often enough to counterbalance the times you lose two.
(2) And you might get lucky and scoop.
(3) Finally, by calling on the river, you might make him less likely to put you under pressure in the future.

Buzz

[garcia1000]

Thanks for the replies!
Reading through them made me realise what my intuition was telling me: that I should call the river.

My thought process was like this:

1) He bet pot and a low is possible! I'm only playing for half the pot, so I need a great chance of winning half to call.

2) A full house is possible. He wouldn't be betting a worse hand for value.

3) Therefore, fold.


When playing, I did think of the following piece of information:

4) What possible full house could he have, given that he checked the turn? The only likely one is 66. His most likely hand for high is trip jacks.


Your comments made me realise number 5:

5) He would need all four cards to work together to scoop, since my 78 also gives me an emergency low. So if he did have a freak holding like JJ or 44 or J4, he would need two other low cards to scoop, or otherwise I would win low.


At the table, my thinking progressed to #4, and I folded, going against my gut feeling. If I managed to go to #5 I would have called.

Agreed on potting turn.

[prodonkey]

fold preflop 7899 is gross