P5's top donk-n-go player is going pro (modnote: Awesome hand inside)

[TheNoodleMan]

[ QUOTE ]
I guess I just don't get all the hating/flaming? What is there to gain from refuting whether someone is a winning (or losing) player? Time will tell; and long term results speak. I know the vast majority of you guys see a "P5 Regular" and think donkey (I'll admit I have done the same before and it's generally correct), but I guess I just really don't see why everyone is getting all worked up.

If she's good she'll start making a name for herself and move out of micro stakes. If she's not, she becomes old news after a few months?

Live and let live. Some of these posts seems like they were beginning to get personal with each other. There's no need to be all 2P2 PR1DE about this - successful going Pro stories make good inspirations for the next generation.

~andy

[/ QUOTE ]

Andy,
You play limit, correct?

Imagine someone came along and said they had played 500,000 hands of .50-1 LHE online and that they had a winrate of 12bb/100.

I would guess that you would want to know:

1. How the hell they had a winrate that was many times higher than anyone else has ever sustained.
2. Why the hell they hadn't moved up.

Jennafear's numbers are basically the SNG equivalent, which means one of the following is true:

a. She is the greatest low stakes SNG player in the world and yet was somehow too dumb to move up.
b. That she is greatly exaggerating her results.
c. That she is on a heater from hell over a limited sample size.

[Josem]

Noodleman is right.


In addition:
[ QUOTE ]
b. That she is greatly exaggerating her results.


[/ QUOTE ]
might not be deliberate. I've met people at live poker games who genuinely claim to have a 70% ROI at online SNGs.

Their mind simply does not work correctly when it comes to estimating this stuff.

[fightingcoward]

this is quickly becoming my favorite thread ever

[cbnz]

sorry but noodle wins this thread

[AceCR9]

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this is quickly becoming my favorite thread ever

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm so happy I finally started a BBV thread that went somewhere [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

[Jennifear]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I guess I just don't get all the hating/flaming? What is there to gain from refuting whether someone is a winning (or losing) player? Time will tell; and long term results speak. I know the vast majority of you guys see a "P5 Regular" and think donkey (I'll admit I have done the same before and it's generally correct), but I guess I just really don't see why everyone is getting all worked up.

If she's good she'll start making a name for herself and move out of micro stakes. If she's not, she becomes old news after a few months?

Live and let live. Some of these posts seems like they were beginning to get personal with each other. There's no need to be all 2P2 PR1DE about this - successful going Pro stories make good inspirations for the next generation.

~andy

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm sure she's a good SNG player.

Heck, she could even be the best SNG player in the whole world.

The fact is that a sustained 39% ROI over 11K 1-table tournaments is mathematically impossible, no matter the stakes/quality of play by opponents.

I'm sure she's a great player, and I have no problem with her teaching or anything, but why lie about results? Sooooo many holes in the story too...

[/ QUOTE ]

Geez, sneaky, you've been all over me for two days about my results.
My explanation of my stats makes perfect sense. There are zero holes in my "story".
If it were mathematically impossible, I could not have acheived it.
Get over yourself. Seriously man, why would I have to lie about my results when my documented results are more than decent enough to merit consideration on their own?

[The Venetian]

OK, whatever. I posted this back in STT back in May when some other random Jennifear thread came up. Enjoy...

She does have a 100% ITM and 182% ROI in the Stars $114's (5 played). Also, 41% ITM and 54% ROI in 17 $60's. That's almost 75% of her total profits in Stars 9-man turbos right there. Sustainable?

Also, yay 1-tabling!

LOL at me for wasting most of my Sharkscope searches today on this.

In case anyone's interested, I found this hand in my database, showing you how experts extract value with weak top pair in position.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t50 (8 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

SB (t1540)
BB (t1255)
UTG (t1655)
UTG+1 (t3300)
Hero (t1570)
MP2 (t1425)
CO (t1415)
Button PunkinBear (t1340)

Preflop:
1 fold, UTG+1 calls t50, 3 folds, Button :#A500AF(PunkinBear)/ raises to t200, 1 fold, BB calls t150, UTG+1 folds.

Flop: (t475) Q, A, 2 (2 players)
BB checks, PunkinBear bets t225, BB calls t225.

Turn: (t925) 5 (2 players)
BB checks, PunkinBear bets t57, BB calls t57.

River: (t1039) 7 (2 players)
BB checks, PunkinBear bets t56, BB calls t56.

Final Pot: t1151

BB has Ks Qh (one pair, queens).
PunkinBear has Ac 8c (one pair, aces).
Outcome: PunkinBear wins t1151.

[Weir]

how was the weather in valuetown?

[AndyatSD]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I guess I just don't get all the hating/flaming? What is there to gain from refuting whether someone is a winning (or losing) player? Time will tell; and long term results speak. I know the vast majority of you guys see a "P5 Regular" and think donkey (I'll admit I have done the same before and it's generally correct), but I guess I just really don't see why everyone is getting all worked up.

If she's good she'll start making a name for herself and move out of micro stakes. If she's not, she becomes old news after a few months?

Live and let live. Some of these posts seems like they were beginning to get personal with each other. There's no need to be all 2P2 PR1DE about this - successful going Pro stories make good inspirations for the next generation.

~andy

[/ QUOTE ]

Andy,
You play limit, correct?

Imagine someone came along and said they had played 500,000 hands of .50-1 LHE online and that they had a winrate of 12bb/100.

I would guess that you would want to know:

1. How the hell they had a winrate that was many times higher than anyone else has ever sustained.
2. Why the hell they hadn't moved up.

Jennafear's numbers are basically the SNG equivalent, which means one of the following is true:

a. She is the greatest low stakes SNG player in the world and yet was somehow too dumb to move up.
b. That she is greatly exaggerating her results.
c. That she is on a heater from hell over a limited sample size.

[/ QUOTE ]

I see your point, and actually I had a vague idea of the magnitude of how the #s she posted would have been equivalent statistical outbounds for LHE - but your example made it much more clear cut. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

And while I would wonder those things that you stated - it was nonetheless my point that even if I wonder these things I wouldn't really be bothered by her claims. If I think the claims are total BS - then pretty soon math will catch up and the #s will be straightened out.

I think it's a certain part of human nature to want to be proud of accomplishments - and she clearly views these accomplishments as noteworthy (and if they are true then of course it is, like you said, no one else has been able to sustain such a rate before). I don't see any reason to not let people wallow in their glory. =)

Oh and on a side note - I too wonder why with such astonishing results she didn't move higher. But I think I've long accepted to just not worry about why people do things - too much of a headache for too little good.

I do enjoy this thread very much though, which is why I posted. I was actually just trying to stir up some trouble but then you posted a serious reply so out of respect I had too. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

~andy

[Jennifear]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]


I would guess that you would want to know:

1. How the hell they had a winrate that was many times higher than anyone else has ever sustained.
2. Why the hell they hadn't moved up.

Jennafear's numbers are basically the SNG equivalent, which means one of the following is true:

a. She is the greatest low stakes SNG player in the world and yet was somehow too dumb to move up.
b. That she is greatly exaggerating her results.
c. That she is on a heater from hell over a limited sample size.

[/ QUOTE ]

Noodle does indeed win this thread. The answer is "A" (though I am probably not THE greatest long-term low limit player around, this answer was close enough).
I decided long ago that I was not going to play any game that I didn't have 150 buyins for. My bankroll management used to be waaaaaaaaaaaaay too nitty. I would have certainly made more money moving up. These days, the only reason I play so low is because I'm teaching. When I play on my own, which has been seldom, I play higher.