Full Tilt 6max .25-.50 best river line

[RobA]

Sorry, no reads; consider villains to be unknown .25-.50 6max online types.

2 limps. Hero raises T [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]T [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] in CO. SB folds. Others call. 4 to flop.

Flop (8.5 SB) J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 4 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].

Check to Hero. Hero bets. BB folds. UTG calls. HJ calls.

Turn (6.75 BB) 5 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].

Check to Hero. Hero bets. UTG folds. HJ calls.

River (8.75 BB) 9 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].

HJ checks.

What is my best line here? Please evaluate Check behind v. Bet/Call v. Bet/Fold.

Seasoned veteran/winners of 6max I really appreciate your comments.

[kross]

I check behind. If the river had been another J instead, then I'd bet.

[numbnuts007]

[ QUOTE ]
I check behind. If the river had been another J instead, then I'd bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with checking behind here. There are a couple hands that pay us off, but I think far more either fold or have us beat. kross, why do you think a J pairing makes this a bet? is it because his passive line up to this point looks much more like a 9 than a J?

[londomollari]

Fairly standard value bet for me, bet/fold probably. Way more combos of small pocket pairs, ace hi, 5s etc than jacks or nines.

[SuperUberBob]

Bet/fold seems like a good river line here. I think we see a lot of pocket pairs, ace highs and busted draws than a nine or jack. I think villain would raise at some point during the hand if he had top pair or better.

[kross]

I agree that small PPs are a big part of his range, and now I'm thinking maybe a bet here might be better. We need to be good at least 50% of the time when we're called for a bet to be profitable. Here's a quick stove with hands that he might have that he would probably call a river bet with (or check/raise):

Board: Jd 4d 9s 5h 9h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 61.583% 61.59% 00.00% 4566006 0.00 { TcTs }
Hand 1: 38.417% 38.42% 00.00% 2848482 0.00 { 88-22, A2s+, KJs, K9s, QJs, Q9s, J7s+, T9s, 96s+, 75s, 65s, 53s+, A2o+, KJo, K9o, QJo, Q9o, J8o+, T9o, 96o+, 65o }

I don't know how realistic that range is, but it appears we have enough equity to bet.

The problem is, sometimes he has a 9 and will c/r the river. He will also sometimes bluff c/r the river. Although most opponents at microstakes will donk as a bluff on the river in this spot. I hate having to make that decision, whether his c/r is a bluff or not, and just check behind.

[RobA]

[ QUOTE ]
I agree that small PPs are a big part of his range, and now I'm thinking maybe a bet here might be better. We need to be good at least 50% of the time when we're called for a bet to be profitable. Here's a quick stove with hands that he might have that he would probably call a river bet with (or check/raise):

Board: Jd 4d 9s 5h 9h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 61.583% 61.59% 00.00% 4566006 0.00 { TcTs }
Hand 1: 38.417% 38.42% 00.00% 2848482 0.00 { 88-22, A2s+, KJs, K9s, QJs, Q9s, J7s+, T9s, 96s+, 75s, 65s, 53s+, A2o+, KJo, K9o, QJo, Q9o, J8o+, T9o, 96o+, 65o }

I don't know how realistic that range is, but it appears we have enough equity to bet.

The problem is, sometimes he has a 9 and will c/r the river. He will also sometimes bluff c/r the river. Although most opponents at microstakes will donk as a bluff on the river in this spot. I hate having to make that decision, whether his c/r is a bluff or not, and just check behind.

[/ QUOTE ]

kross, i appreciate your analysis and thoughts. thank you for putting in the time on the pokerstove analysis, but i'm not sure how to use it. i think the best way to analyze this spot is to estimate (given all the action in that hand so far, and that the villain has already checked the river)

1.what % of the time an unknown villain will call here with a worse hand?

2.what % of the time an unknown villain will call here with a better hand?

3. what % of a time the unknown villain will CR with a better hand?

4. and what % of a time an unknown villain with CR with a worse hand?

(the times the villain just folds to the river bet are obsolete to the EV on the bet because no money changes hands)

can you give me your best intuitive estimate of 4 percentages, to answer these 4 questions, that add up to 100. (e.g. 40%, 30%, 20%, 10%)

(i have some estimates but am curious of your pure opinion 1st)

think hard [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img].

[inferno]

im betting

[SoMarginal]

easy bet

[thrasher789]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I check behind. If the river had been another J instead, then I'd bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with checking behind here. There are a couple hands that pay us off, but I think far more either fold or have us beat. kross, why do you think a J pairing makes this a bet? is it because his passive line up to this point looks much more like a 9 than a J?

[/ QUOTE ]

yes, another jack would be a bet for sure because any villain at .25/.50 is raising flop with top pair everytime, so you can eliminate the jack from his range. His passive line certainly displays that he either has a lower pocket pair or a piece of the flop (likely mid pair) which would make me inclined to check behind depending on how the villain has played in the past. Since he is never calling with the busted flush draw but is gonna c/r with the 9 I'd probably check behind.