Two Plus Two Newer Archives  

Go Back   Two Plus Two Newer Archives > PL/NL Texas Hold'em > Small Stakes

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
  #1  
Old 11-18-2007, 05:47 AM
Nielsio Nielsio is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Aug 2005
Posts: 10,570
Default I flipped 100 coins

I flipped a 20 eurocent coin a hundred times, to see what happened to the variance.


=0= 0:0
0
1
1
1
1
1
0
1
0
1
=10= 3:7
1
1
1
1
0
1
1
0
1
1
=20= 5:15
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
=30= 11:19
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
1
1
1
=40= 17:23
0
1
1
0
1
0
0
1
0
1
=50= 22:28
0
0
1
0
1
0
1
0
0
0
=60= 29:31
1
0
0
0
1
0
1
1
1
1
=70= 33:37
1
1
0
0
0
1
0
1
0
0
=80= 39:41
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
1
1
0
=90= 46:44
0
0
0
0
1
0
1
0
0
0
=100= 54:46


Results:

Biggest difference is after flip #23 where the score is 5:18, a 13 point difference.

Longest string of the same side is 7 times 0 (flip 78 through 85).


If these numbers represent full stacked 60/40 through 40/60 flips then we should expect a lot of short-term variance. And that's only one aspect of the variance of the game.

It does seem to even out though. So keep trying to make good decisions and try to forget the results.
Reply With Quote
  #2  
Old 11-18-2007, 05:54 AM
holdme holdme is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: 100k in 20 days
Posts: 6,277
Default Re: I flipped 100 coins

k
Reply With Quote
  #3  
Old 11-18-2007, 05:56 AM
Dire Dire is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2005
Posts: 2,511
Default Re: I flipped 100 coins

I'm not sure if it's what you're implying or not, but you seem to be stating the gambler's fallacy. It doesn't even out, on average. At flip 23 where you're down 6.5 points off expectation, you should expect to be 6.5 points off expectation, on average, for the rest of eternity of flipping.

You approach your expected equity relative to your sample size, not in absolute terms. So say you're 5 flips off after 20 flips. That's a 25% difference! You should now expect to always be 5 flips off, but the percent will decrease as the sample size increases. So if you run at expectation for the next 80 flips, you'll still be down 5 flips but it will only be a 5% difference. As you increase your sample size you obviously get closer and closer to 0% difference (in other words running at expectation) but you'll always be down 5 flips.
Reply With Quote
  #4  
Old 11-18-2007, 05:59 AM
Irishman07 Irishman07 is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Jan 2007
Posts: 232
Default Re: I flipped 100 coins

true... but it also depends on the value of the coin. everyone knows that a 50 eurocent coin tends to come up heads more often than the 20 eurocent coin. then theres the whole exchange rate thing when you start flipping american coins. it can get complicated pretty fast.
Reply With Quote
  #5  
Old 11-18-2007, 06:00 AM
LearnedfromTV LearnedfromTV is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Coaching
Posts: 5,914
Default Re: I flipped 100 coins

adsdfasdfasdfgf
Reply With Quote
  #6  
Old 11-18-2007, 06:01 AM
Trikkur Trikkur is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Mar 2007
Posts: 202
Default Re: I flipped 100 coins

So if I lose my first ever coinflip, I'm bound to be below expectation forever????
Reply With Quote
  #7  
Old 11-18-2007, 06:02 AM
74o_Clownsuit 74o_Clownsuit is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: May 2006
Location: I FIGHT VAMPIRES
Posts: 1,557
Default Re: I flipped 100 coins

Thanks?
Reply With Quote
  #8  
Old 11-18-2007, 06:15 AM
pdoran10 pdoran10 is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: Minneapolis, MN, U.S.
Posts: 2,681
Default Re: I flipped 100 coins

I always thought my second grade math teacher was lying to me. Its a good thing you posted this and the results support her claims.
Reply With Quote
  #9  
Old 11-18-2007, 06:17 AM
Dire Dire is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2005
Posts: 2,511
Default Re: I flipped 100 coins

[ QUOTE ]
So if I lose my first ever coinflip, I'm bound to be below expectation forever????

[/ QUOTE ]

Past events have no bearing on future events. If you lose $10 on your first flip, then you will always be down $10 if you run at expectation for the rest of your flips.
Reply With Quote
  #10  
Old 11-18-2007, 06:18 AM
sputnik3000 sputnik3000 is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 288
Default Re: I flipped 100 coins

0_o
Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 03:55 AM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.11
Copyright ©2000 - 2021, vBulletin Solutions Inc.