200NL - valuetown?

[moldman]

Villian is 6/3/1.2 over 100 hands...

Poker Stars - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $1/$2 Blinds - 9 Players - (LegoPoker HH Converter)

<font color="black">SB: $192.05</font>
<font color="black">BB: $212.85</font>
<font color="black">UTG: $346.95</font>
UTG+1: $130.85
<font color="black">MP1: $119.25</font>
<font color="black">Hero (MP2): $199</font>
MP3: $149.70
CO: $114.85
<font color="black">BTN: $48.80</font>

<font color="black">Preflop:</font> Hero is dealt 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7 (9 Players)
UTG calls $2, UTG+1 folds, MP1 calls $2, Hero calls $2, MP3 folds, CO folds, BTN calls $2, SB calls $1, BB checks

<font color="black">Flop:</font> ($12) 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (6 Players)
SB checks, BB checks, <font color="red">UTG bets $8</font>, MP1 folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $22</font>, BTN folds, SB folds, BB folds, UTG calls $14

<font color="black">Turn:</font> ($56) 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J (2 Players)
UTG checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $46</font>, UTG calls $46

<font color="black">River:</font> ($148) 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players)
UTG checks, <font color="red">Hero ??
<font color="black">
Is there reason to be scared here with a 6/3? Or am I just paranoid?

[pterodactyl_]

Value push. Scary stats but its only over 100 and id still be pushing even if it was over 1000 hands.

[RiverMustelid]

AJ shows up almost never here as an UTG call.

Out of Position this would be a very tricky, and not very sensible way to play JJ/AA,

AK is by far the most likely hand here IMO. The problem with shoving is that on a paired board I think you might fold out AK. Then again, given 6/3s get to play so few hands, I think they are more sticky with the hands they do connect with. So overall, I push.

[IFeltYourRack]

Are you kidding me? Arrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr eeeeeeeeeeeeeeeennnnn!

[BlueBear]

PFR=3% is likely to mean JJ+, AK from early position. Would AK call a push? Way more hands that call a push beat OP.

[free card]

I believe it's a push here. He can AQ-AK or a flush draw. You're full house here should be best most of the time.

[MataWispar]

I bet he had AA

[chriz300]

[ QUOTE ]
I bet he had AA

[/ QUOTE ]

he would have played it horrible. just calling UTG with AA is stupid

back 2 topic: shove!

[crunny]

Pushing is bad IMO because i don't think AK or AQ will call

[binions]

[ QUOTE ]
just calling UTG with AA is stupid



[/ QUOTE ]

I guess I am stupid because I do it occasionally.

There is 1-way to make JJ on this board, and 3 ways to make AA. There are 12 ways to make AK, 3 ways to make AQs and 1 ways to make AJs. Based on his stats, I don't see any other hand showing up here unless he plays AQo or KK-QQ bad.

So, 5 hands have you crushed, and you are ahead of 15 hands. How many of the 15 hands call a push? I am guessing AK calls a push most of the time. The push would be 137 into a 145 pot. He gets 2:1 on the call. He needs 33% equity. I can see AK thinking hero has AQ/AT/A7 or a busted flush draw in this spot often enough to justify a call.

Hell, even if AK folded 7/12 times here, you still get 5 calls. Assuming AA, JJ, AJs also call, 5/10 or 50% of the time you get a call you win. You need to win 50% of the time to breakeven on the bet.

I think you have to value bet it. If he has AA, JJ, AJs, then there is nothing you can do.