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  #11  
Old 10-23-2007, 01:00 AM
stereoman stereoman is offline
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Default Re: Dancing With the Stars 5

Ugh. Looks absolutely rigged for Sabrina Bryan at the moment with a few tweaks just to make it not so obvious. Helio's in danger of being eliminated despite Marie and Mark being ahead of him. [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

Week 5 - Judges' Scores:

29 -- Mel & Maks
28 -- Sabrina & Mark
26 -- Jane & Tony, Cameron & Edyta
25 -- Jennie & Derek
23 -- Helio & Julianne
21 -- Marie & Jonathan, Mark & Kym
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  #12  
Old 10-29-2007, 02:48 AM
darko3131 darko3131 is offline
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Default Re: Dancing With the Stars 5

I'm going to put my perfect season on the line. Marie Osmond to outlast Jane Seymour at +120. I bet the underdogs twice before and they both won so why not? Helio over Floyd at +150 and Cuban over Wayne at +200.

I wasn't going to touch this line but last week's results tempted me too much. Marie scored the lowest score and wasn't even in the bottom 2, Jane scored very high and was in the bottom 2 next to only Cuban-who's gone. Jane has no fan base and I have no doubt she's running 7th out of the final 7 in voting. There is a chance of Jane getting a 28-30 but anything short of that she's gone.

As for Helio I don't think he's in danger at all. I even bet some more on him with sites that increased his odds after last week. You can get +280 on oddsmaker. Fan vote is half of the total and Helio murders Sabrina in that, all he has to do is stay close with the scores. Sure he had a bad week but I'm betting he bounces back.
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  #13  
Old 10-29-2007, 09:48 AM
thing85 thing85 is offline
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Default Re: Dancing With the Stars 5

FWIW, you can get Helio on The Greek for +300.
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  #14  
Old 10-29-2007, 10:02 AM
thing85 thing85 is offline
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Default Re: Dancing With the Stars 5

If you don't watch the show like me and you're looking for a low risk wager, you can put money on Helio to win on The Greek at +300 and hedge it with female to win at -145 on Bodog.
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  #15  
Old 10-30-2007, 02:02 AM
stereoman stereoman is offline
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Default Re: Dancing With the Stars 5

Whatever it is you're doing to come up with these conclusions darko, it's working...

Week 6 - Judges' Scores:

30 -- Mel & Maks
28 -- Helio & Julianne
27 -- Jennie & Derek
25 -- Sabrina & Mark, Cameron & Edyta
23 -- Marie & Jonathon
22 -- Jane & Tony

Coinflip as to who goes tomorrow between Jane and Marie but one would favour Jane getting the boot (probably, one can't imagine that ABC will dismiss their two horses of Cameron and Sabrina at this stage).

Mark Cuban thinks Cameron's going to win. I think he's thinking of the ABC angle.
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  #16  
Old 11-04-2007, 05:28 AM
llabb llabb is offline
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Default Re: Dancing With the Stars 5

[ QUOTE ]


Coinflip as to who goes tomorrow between Jane and Marie but one would favour Jane getting the boot

[/ QUOTE ]

Could have said the same thing last week, but it was quite the shocker.

If you or anyone wants to back up their opinions, Matchbook has odds up on both who will win and who will get eliminated this week.
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  #17  
Old 11-04-2007, 07:46 AM
stereoman stereoman is offline
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Default Re: Dancing With the Stars 5

Yeah, yeah I got it wrong. Few people would have said Sabrina was going to be eliminated and for money.

I generally don't follow the odds on Matchbook but was there any odds movement last week on Sabrina being eliminated?

Just looking at the odds on who'll be eliminated this week and they're kinda stingy:

Will Helio be eliminated? Yes +1000, No n/a
Will Cameron be eliminated? Yes n/a, No -800
Will Marie be eliminated? Yes +200, No n/a
Will Jane be eliminated? Yes n/a, No -280
Will Melanie be eliminated? Yes n/a, No -800
Will Jennie be eliminated? Yes +400, No -1000

Ugh. I have no interest in betting or setting the odds at Matchbook even if the lines right now are goading me into thinking Jane's being set up to be eliminated this week.

You'd have to be a fan, an insider or someone who hates money to bet money on the eliminations.
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  #18  
Old 11-04-2007, 11:46 AM
llabb llabb is offline
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Default Re: Dancing With the Stars 5

Oh, for sure. Wasn't ragging on you about last week at all. No one serious anywhere was predicting Sabrina to go last week, including myself. Have had my share of hits and misses this season also.

But I disagree about Matchbook and the eliminations. There is money to be made there, it's just not a big market until show-day.

Those odds are simply a couple people's offers. By show-time Mon and Tues, there should be a lot more offers and better odds.

And if people think that Marie and Jane are a near coinflip to go, then they would be near +/-100 to go. You can get Marie for +200. That's a lot of room for edge/error already. Taking a near 50% prop (if that's your estimate) and getting an edge all the way down to 33%, a 17% margin for error.
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  #19  
Old 11-05-2007, 02:25 AM
darko3131 darko3131 is offline
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Default Re: Dancing With the Stars 5

Man I wish I could play at matchbook, I mop up on any reality shows. I refuse to deposit into an online sportsbook though, anyone know how I can get a couple of bucks on there maybe with a promo code or anything?

Just wanted to weigh in on the Sabrina elimination. I actually wasn't shocked she went. It was no secret her scores were carrying her, so scoring a 25 was trouble. I thought for sure the bottom 2 would have been Jane and Sabrina with Jane being the boot though. Oh well, the old food poisoning trick won't save the old bag this week hopefully- because I didn't envision my money being tied up for 2 weeks.
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  #20  
Old 11-05-2007, 01:40 PM
thing85 thing85 is offline
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Default Re: Dancing With the Stars 5

lol...Bodog has Helio to win at +100 and male to win at +130.
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