NL200$ Omaha8 turn play?

[cubaman]

http://www.pokerhand.org/?905563

in this hand i thought a few seconds on the turn! the reason was, that i was very sure that one of my opponents must have A2XX like me so i decided to flatcall, because i knew that tose fishy guys are capable of pushing a lot of topset type of hands on the river and i was sure that the money will go all in on the river anyway
--> if i raise the turn hard, i can play with open cards, because they will know what exactly i have A2XX and this might scare away any worser hands.

any thoughts?

[PorkPieHat]

You need to raise (in NL with enough of a bankroll and a healthy tolerance for variance you should push) this flop, and avoid such nasty turn decisions.

[bbartlog]

Raising anywhere with stacks this deep when all you have is the wheel would be a mistake (raising flop would have been good though). Your calldown line is OK, though I also think folding the turn would be acceptable, since you will often be in a situation where one of the others also has A2 and the third player has the high straight. I don't raise turn unless I have A26x. As it turned out opponents had about the best possible set of cards you could hope for, but I think you get quartered on the river a lot more often than coming out ahead like this.

[cubaman]

after reading your posts i think pushing the flop might be the best option in general, but after calling i think my line is o.k., even if pushing with 21outs seems to be the most valuable option.

i thought about quatering, but wasn´t able to laydown a wheel on the turn at NL200$.
at a higher limit let´s say NL600-1000$ folding would be o.k. i guess, but if you play NL100/200$ you really have to consider the "donkey factor" in every hand [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

[bbartlog]

Pushing the flop? I hope you mean *betting* the flop, because an all-in push seems like a bad move. Most of the time you would win $10, the rest of the time end up HU against some A2 hand with a made high (like A2Tx) that you're a 60/40 dog to. Of course if you had raised preflop and the pot were $30 or something then jamming would be much more correct.
To be fair though I've played very little NLO8. So my advice may be off.

[PorkPieHat]

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Most of the time you would win $10

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This is likely correct. That is fine, most folks like winning 5bb.

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the rest of the time end up HU against some A2 hand with a made high (like A2Tx) that you're a 60/40 dog to.

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You need to define 'rest of the time' because that is the key to the equation. If 'rest of the time' means 70% of the time it's one thing, but if it means '10% of the time' it means another. No offense meant by this, but do you see why?

You also are not taking into account the amount of times that you are called by a hand like top 2, or 67 with a raggy low side card.

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To be fair though I've played very little NLO8. So my advice may be off.

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This is a situation that is played much differently in NLO8 than PL (when played properly).

[bbartlog]

Yes, of course the frequency with which you end up against a better A2 hand is critical, as is evaluating how often you will be called by hands like TTxx (or far worse) that you have a significant edge on. Only the player sitting at the table can make a reasonable guess as to what sort of bad hands people might call with, but we can take a stab at answering the first part of the question. In general someone else will be holding A2xx about 30% of the time when we have A2 (in a situation with this many limpers we could bump up our estimate of the chance a little bit, but let's leave it). The odds that one of the remaining two cards in their hand paired the flop are about 30% as well, and to that we can add the chance they have a pair in hand (something like A266 or whatever). On the whole it looks like about a 10% chance that we get called by a hand that's 60/40 against us. Even if caller is as deepstacked as we are, expectation is only -$50 or so (x 10%), so it looks like you're right: pushing *is* +EV even without adding in calls by donk hands.