Big hand, HU, 220bbs deep

[jbird]

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out of interest what hand did you put him on that you felt you could call the turn and fold the river to a relative blank?

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I was 90% sure he had AAxx and AAxx only and would still stack off if i hit a diamond.

[RoundTower]

the fact that he didn't 3 bet the flop earlier with a monster top 2 + flush draw isn't really good news for you. But I think I shove the turn anyway, hope he has some worse hand or combo draw that you crush.

Also, if you are 90% sure he has AA then I wouldn't call the turn, it's just too likely he has diamonds when he bets so small, otherwise he would worry about giving you a cheap card.

[grizy]

Shove flop for reasons wazz and many others already went into.

Turn bet reeks value bet with flush draw OR just blocking with what he believes to be best (AA, AT, 33, all possible here). As played I rather shove the turn. Only thing that really crushes you is AA with better flush draw.

Of course, as roundtower said, if you're 90% sure he's got AA, just bail on the turn. Although heads up, that really does seem weak.

As played, opponent's betting range is just too wide (AK, 33, and possibly AT) for me to fold on river. Of course, this is with the information given.

[Elrazor]

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I was 90% sure he had AAxx and AAxx only and would still stack off if i hit a diamond.

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ok one final point as i think this is an interesting hand - whats would your line have been on the river if he had checked?? i think if you were planning to bluff any broadway card then i think a call is a reasonable play, if your only line is to bet a diamond on the river then i think you have to fold the turn given your read - for me the times he has a higher flush with his AAxx (i think its around 15-20% maybe someone knows the correct odds here??) mean that the call is very marginal at best

rather than do the seperate maths for with/without diamonds if you just stove a random AAxx against your hand it dosent look good

Omaha Hi Simulation
600,000 trials (Randomized)
board: 3dTdAh4c
Hand Pot equity Wins Ties
Th2d9dTc 15.43% 92,600 0
AA** 84.57% 507,400 0

you need to win at least $130 on the river to make this play =ev, but you only have around $127 left