Pooh-Bah post: Level 0 exploitation NLTRN

[daveT]

These concepts are applicable to 2,5,6,10,11 level SNG.

In order to attain the maximum win-rate in all forms of poker, one must be able to master hand reading and how to react to her opponent's tendencies when playing those hands. One of the basic problems with this is that several players may be able to make a great read, but not know the best solution to the problems their opponents present to them. In this post, I would like to step back and take a look at some of the proper procedures of playing versus the normal small stakes SNG player, discounting exact hand values, image, or meta-game.

As a player moves up, she must be able to evaluate the standard thinking and counter-strategies that are typical in each level. The vast majority of players are losing players. What happens here is that these bad players are playing other bad players. Two typical opponents playing each other are not winning, but there are strategies that are developed that they use to play each other. When this kind of opponent is playing a good player, he unlikely to identify her as strong, and he is unlikely to make adjustments.

Situation #1: The calling station.

A calling station in No Limit has a different definition than Limit. A calling station in Limit will generally call down until the river, where he will either fold or call, depending whether or not he hit. In otherwords, the good player must be willing to pummel the station with constant bets. Here, we are looking to build equity.

A calling station in No Limit does not make a habbit of calling all bets until the river. For the most part, the caller will call if he hits, or fold if he misses.

I created a simple game:

We are dealt the hand 97 on the button.
The flop is only going to have one card: A king. We know this going in.
To represent a full calling station, that plays every single hand, I decided to reduce his calling range to 33.3%. His play is that if he has a king in his hand, he will call. If he does not, he will fold.

I assign villain the following hands:
Any pocket pair.
any two suited cards, both 8+
A8o +
Any two cards, both 9+
98 o/s
87 o/s
76 o/s
65 o/s
54s

We make a standard raise of 60. Because I had to make the math easy, I assumed that he would simply call with AK, AKs, and KK 50% of the time.

He has a total of 12 kings, 9 of which he will never raise, and 3, which he will raise with 50% of the time. In essence, we know that he has a king in 10 of his possible holdings.

We get a break-even bet of 105. (thank you jay_shark for checking the math)

In english: If we continue to bet 105 into the 120 pot, and the villain calls: the villain makes no money on the call and we expect to make no money on the bet. If we bet less than 105, the villain is not able to extract the most from us, and he loses money. If we bet more, he is actually getting the best of us, no matter if we continue the hand or not.

The conclusion:
Against a calling station that will fold on all flops he misses, you should NOT stop bluffing. The reason players are having difficulty beating constant callers is not because they are betting to often, but they are betting too much money.

Situation #2: The first hand.

Typical opponent: overplays the first hand.
Typical opponent adjustment: Play any pair strongly.

When you are playing your first hand, these kind of players are easy to identify. If you open for a raise and are faced with a small re-raise, the chances that this game can be over in one hand is dramatically increased.

Hand example:

Stacks are 1500 each, you have the button.

Hero holds A8

Hero raises to 60, villain reraises to 200.

Perhaps later in the game, we would not be happy to call, but here we probably have decent equity.

Pot = 400

Flop A46

Villain bets 250, hero calls.

Turn: J

Pot 900

Stacks are now 1050. This is important to note. The reason why I called on the flop is because I want to get all of the money in before the river. Remember that this is the first hand of the game, and that your opponent has a very large range of hands, including bluffs. In order for your opponent to make a decent bet, he must be willing to get most of his chips in here and now. Many players eyes are bigger than their brains.

Villain bets 600

Look at the entire situation here. The main thing to consider is how much is left in front of your opponent (450). He is probably not going to be pleased to fight back from this number of chips. This bet more often than not, reps some kind of hand, but almost never an actual ace. Perhaps a middling pocket pair. At this point you can be guaranteed that he will call lightly.

Hero raises all-in
Villain calls and shows QJ.

Hand example:

Hero has T9 on the button.
Hero raises to 80, villain raises to 200. Hero calls.

Pot: 400
Flop A96

Villain bet 200. Hero calls.

Pot: 800
Turn 9

Villain bets 200. This is an unusual continuation bet. It smells of a trap. I can be sure that he has an ace now and wants me to raise.

Pot: 1000
River: 4

Villain bets 250, hero raises to 600, villain shoves all-in, hero calls.

Villain shows A7

This hand needs further examination. Although the concept was applied, I made an error in applying it. On the flop, I assumed that I could stack the guy off. I was layed 7.5-1 odds (real+ implied) and I had 5 outs. This is a losing call, and it becomes worse when I consider that my opponent could have already had two pair, or redrew on me. In the heat of the moment, I erred.

Situation #3: The check-raise trap.

A common situation that can be encountered is when you raise on the button and face a three-bet. In most cases, our villain will want to c-bet the flop. Once in a while, your opponent will check. Buyer beware, this stinks of a check-raise. This strategy works because people think that a check means a wiffed AK and many opponents will bet. More often than not, the check-raise is minimum or very small. It never fails that when this trap is executed, the villain will be willing to go all-in.

Stacks
hero: 1500
villain: 1500

Hero holds 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] on the button.

Hero raises to 60, villain re-raises to 240.

We are not thrilled with the raise, but we call.

If we miss, we are done with the hand.

flop: 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

We flopped top pair with an open-ened straight-flush draw. Our equity versus QQ is approx 64% on the flop.

Villain checks.

We know the trap. Lets review our options:

We could check. The problem with this is that when we hit, there is either a flush or 4 to a straight on the board. Chances are, the villain will bet half the pot and be done with the hand if we raise on the turn.

Lets say that he does bet half the pot for 200, giving us a 800 pot on the river.

The argument can continue that if villain is willing to call a shove 17% of the time, it is better than going for a call if the villain is willing to call 400 45% of the time (7 in extra profit). Clearly, it is best to win 64% of the time if our villain is willing to call 100% of the time.

So, how much to bet? 300 sounds about right. Chances are, this will show our villain that we fell for his trick and he will re-raise a large amount because he wants to punish us for drawing. We will gladly shove or call all of our chips.

Equities for the following flops:

Hero: 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
Villain: Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

Two pair 973: 74%
Open-ended straight flush draw 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]: 56%
One pair + open ended straight flush 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 64%
One pair + gutshot straight flush: 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]: 59%
Trips: 91%
One pair + open ended straight draw: 47%
one pair + flush draw: 49%

Without a large triple-combo draw we are better off taking the free card because even if villain is willing to call a half-sized bet 30% of the time on later streets, we have a higher expectation.

Situation #4: The point of desperation.

The point of desperation is the part of the game where one player has between 700 and 950 chips. At this point, the villain realizes he either has to hit or make a move.

Typical opponent: Tries to trap and end the match.
Typical opponent adjustment: Starts bluffing with higher frequency.

Although it may appear that our villain is on a heater, he is not. At this point of the game, we must be willing to make marginal calls.

Hand example:

Preflop stack sizes:
hero: 2050
Villain: 950

Hero holds 99

Pot: 800

Stacks:
Hero: 1650
Villain: 550

Final board: J876Q

Villain shoves all in.

I am not entirely sure where I am in this hand. I know three things:

That my opponent is far more likely to be bluffing here.
That if I call and lose, I still have 1100 left. I feel that my edge is large enough that I can still win.
It is very unlikely that my opponent has a straight, since I hold two of the trumps in my hand.

The question is why is he betting? He most certainly does not want to be left with 550 chips. He may think I can't call, that I have AK or a weak Jack. All total, the pot is now 1350, I need to call with 550. A break even call of about 33.3. I know that he would be bluffing here quite often. He raised me before the flop, which could mean he has something good or that he is trying to push me off my hand.

I call, villain shows 43.

hand example:

I got this villain down to 700. I began mini-raising pre-flop because his new strategy, after playing tight was to press all-in on every flop. After 5 times:

Stacks:
Hero 1950
Villain 1150

Level 15/30

Hero holds T7
Hero raises to 60, villain calls

Flop: QT8

Villain shoves all-in.

Our villain is missing the flop about 60% of the time. Meaning that we are going to show up with the best hand about 60% of the time. Although I lost this hand, this is an easy call.

[Somekid]

Great post! I think a lot of this is definitely true with regard to players at the low-level NLTRNs. The first point about calling stations is a really important one. Even if it hurts, it's important to keep betting against these players.

[ghettointlectual]

Can this be stickied

It explains a lot of the situations that I am up against brilliantly and showed me 2 leaks that I need to plug.

Thank You!

[dboy23]

i'm so glad you decided to make a poohbah post.

Dealing with fishy play is a crucial part of husng strategy.

[jay_shark]

Good post Dave !

Poker is all about exploitation and you hit on some nice arguments .

[Landonfan]

Good post. One qualm, though:

In the A8 hand, how do we know villain is overplaying his hand? If he really is a psycho, we'll find out soon enough and won't have to risk a good bit of our stack with A8 to find out.

[daveT]

Landonfan, everything I wrote is up for micro-scoping. I am going to wait for more reviews and questions before I respond.

[alavet]

nice one

[abcjnich]

I think calling a 3bet w/ 97s and those stacks is a big mistake. If you knew he had QQ you would probably never call. And you're losing your whole stack if the flop is 9 or 7 high.

The villain was the stupidest ever on the A7 vs 9T hand. If he wants you to raise the turn, why don't you?

Calling a 3bet w/ A8 is bad. In fact, I would rather call later in the game than earlier, because later in the game when stacks are 10BB deep you're not even playing poker anymore and A8 is good enough to get it in.

[mjws00]

Glad to see someone else was puzzled by these examples. The points made are reasonable, but I was left thinking wtf on most of the hands.

We call a large three bet with 97s. Villian doesn't bet his over pair on this EXTREMELY WET BOARD....? I search for the villian that shoves A7 on a paired board to a huge river raise. I can't follow how we get to that river call with 99 when there are two overs and we can't see the action. WTF was villian doing in this hand with 43 for all his chips when he needs to double up and is short, trying to flop a wheel? I don't understand why suits don't matter in these examples. I don't undertand why villian stacks off with second pair on the first hand. There isn't much you are calling that flop bet with besides an ace after calling a large 3 bet.

How to beat calling stations is important.
Yes, some opponents play the first hand too aggressively.

Yes, Some times a 1/4 pot or weak bet after a 3bet pf is sometimes a trap (or a draw). (call and get thurr ???) [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Yes there is a point of desperation. But understand the primary method for villian to double up and for you to swap to the short stack is for you to make that light/marginal call while behind. Agreed at some point depending on the blinds (<~750) it is correct for villian to shove a far wider range, steal more, and correct for us to call with less.

Love the logic an premise, Dave. Some of the examples threw me.

Mike