66 SB Defense/River bluff 10/20 Motor City

[mwette]

I can see the flop re-raise to push people out.
I don't understand the flop play. If the flop
has two overcards to your 66 and the villian bets,
doesn't this indicate there is a good possibility
the 66 is beat?

[Bob T.]

[ QUOTE ]
If the flop
has two overcards to your 66 and the villian bets,
doesn't this indicate there is a good possibility
the 66 is beat?

[/ QUOTE ]

Not necessarily, he was the preflop raiser, and he might just have overcards to the board. There are two overcards to your hand, but they aren't in the range that would normally hit the preflop raiser's hand. You are representing a nine here, and that hand might be good, but it is susceptible to draws, so if that is your hand, then you need to play it fast. I think that once you make the preflop call, then you probably need to be able to win more often than when you flop a set, so this play is consistant with the preflop call.

[StrictlyStrategy]

Ok.


Why is betting the river good?

[TheCount212]

Agreed. But I really don't like the c/r on the flop holding 66 here, because the only person that flop should scare is you. I can see making this play if an A came on the flop... but it's not very easy to bluff someone off their hand in a live 3/6 game otherwise.

[Bob T.]

[ QUOTE ]
Ok.


Why is betting the river good?




[/ QUOTE ]

Um, I'm not sure it is. Usually I like the idea of betting if you are going to call, but given that our opponent is on the passive side, I think he might check behind more hands that beat us, than call with hands that we beat.

I think this hand is a good case of painting yourself in a corner, and then trying to figure a way out.

The checkraise on the river would have to be made against he right player in just the right state of mind. It might be a great play, or it might be chipspew if the CO just has to make a curiosity call. Some players would lay down AQ in this spot with this action, but you have to know who they are.

Given that he was characterized as passive, I don't think the chance that he is bluffing the river is very good, so I don't think the chance of getting a laydown here is very good either.

[shane88888]

[ QUOTE ]
but it's not very easy to bluff someone off their hand in a live 3/6 game otherwise.

[/ QUOTE ]

We're playing 10/20 live here.

[shane88888]

[ QUOTE ]
Some players would lay down AQ in this spot with this action, but you have to know who they are.


[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think he called the turn to fold his rivered TPTK.

[TheCount212]

Still don't like the c/r bluff holding 66 there.. and hate raising the river even more. This is one of those hands that's a poster-child for the danger of aggression simply for the sake of aggression.

[shane88888]

[ QUOTE ]
Ok.


Why is betting the river good?

[/ QUOTE ]

The pot is too big to fold (for me at least). We're going to call anyway.

The villain can be passive. He is probably more likely to call a whiffed AK than bet a whiffed AK. We've indicated we have a piece - I don't think he'll bluff A-high. A bet will give us value.

We've c/r flop, fired turn, and fired river. The fold equity we have is what makes bet/fold the play for me. If villain folds a better hand, then this is a friggin' coup. I think this is our best chance to get a fold.

After considering the c/r some more, I see some merit in the play. However, it is entirely opponent-specific. If we have been discipling villain with c/r's throughout the session, then I like the play. If villain is the type who doesn't want to look foolish by falling for two c/r's in one hand, then I like the play. But I would need serious, serious history with the villain to make this play. I would think that we would need to have used almost this exact line (successfully) on the villain before; it'll be hard to dodge a curiosity call getting 11:1. All in all, I find it hard to justify risking two bets here.

Since he can be passive, he'll probably only call w/ TT, JJ, or maybe AQ. So, if the villain raises here, we're obviously cooked. Safe fold.

[Bob T.]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't think he called the turn to fold his rivered TPTK.




[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think so either, that's why I don't like this line.

I also don't think that a passive player is going to bet/fold here on the river.