Play a Hand With the Masters #1 River

[Lloyd]

This is part 4 of our first Play a Hand With the Masters. If you haven't already read, thought about, and posted in the pre-flop thread , flop thread , and turn thread you should do so first.

Here is the hand up until our next decision point:

Setup

$10,000 Buy-In Event
Day 1
Blinds 75/150 and will go up to 100/200 on the next hand
Hero has been at the table for about an hour with no unusual play. All players are unknown except for Miami John to his direct left. The CO in this hand has been playing pretty tight.

Relevant Stacks

CO 25,000
Hero 11,500
MJ 13,000
BB 9,800

Pre-Flop
Everyone folds to the CO who limps for T150. Hero is on the button with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] and raises to T600. MJ calls in the SB for T600, the BB folds, and the CO calls for T600.

Flop
Pot: T1950

T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

MJ checks, CO checks, Hero checks.

Turn
Pot: T1950

Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

MJ checks, CO bets T1500. Hero raises to T4000. MJ folds. CO thinks for over a minute before calling.

River
Pot: T9950

2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

Hero has approximately 7,000 left and villain has him covered by quite a bit.

Villain checks. Action is on hero.

Concluding range of hands for the villain? Check or bet (and if so how much)?

Question not posed to our panel but I think is interesting: If you were the CO, what range of hands would you put our hero on based on how the hand has played out through the turn?

[NoahSD]

Lol, was it really the 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]?

I don't see CO calling with many hands that fold this river. If he happened to be playing a draw this way (I doubt he would've been), we probably have him beat anyway, so there's little point in betting. I check and wish I played the hand more passively from the start.

[kuro]

Just check. You've still got a healthy stack and the only other real option is to push and you don't have enough folding equity without some strong physical read that villain is going to fold. Sometimes you play correctly and lose the pot thats the breaks.

[EverettKings]

I can't think of a single hand that calls the turn and folds the river to a push. I check behind here.

Everett

[nyc999]

Reluctantly check and live to play another hand.

[adanthar]

Well, we've taken the very aggro route all the way here, so now that the pot is bloated, we may as well push; given this read, he folds more than 7/17 of the time, etc.

I just don't like the fact that we've made the pot big at every opportunity and now have no real choice but to make this play.

edit: I think his range starts with a queen and includes a lot of 2 pair and pair + jack hands, but your raise confused him and now the question is whether he puts you on a really badly played set often enough to fold.

[Lloyd]

I edited the original post to include an additional question at the bottom.

[Stipe_fan]

Well, like I said, I would have raised on the turn to T3500. I am done with the hand. I don't think you opponent has much FE. I think any range of hands, he will not fold to a push. I think he is more apt to call you if you push and I can't see betting anything less into this pot b.c. he will again call.

He has you extremely covered and I don't think he will release his hand.

Range of hands now:

A,A-10, K,Q-10, QQ,JJ,1010,99 possibly 88, J10, QJ.

The hand that makes the most sense to me is QJ or maybe J10. I think he was hoping to take it down with the turn bet but the raise made him uncomfortable. He called because he had a good draw (str8). I doubt he is on a busted flsuh draw. Even if he does have the two hands, I still don't think he folds. My money is on J10s

Stipe

The hands I would put the hero on is either a made set and playing it weakly or the flush draw since he came alive when the second club hit. Possibly a turned str8, but I doubt he would reraise on the turn with the nut str8.

[Sluss]

I guess check. There is no way CO is laying down after that call. CO probably has a set though he could have played QJ or KQ this way. I would bet CO thought we had A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

[Goodie54]

The way I figure it, if the villian was not going to fold to a river push, then it's fairly likely that villian would put hero in on the turn.

I think there are many pair plus draw hands that fold to the river push. The villian has 20,400 left, how are there not hands that villian would fold for 7 thousand more? I don't understand that logic.

If you raise the turn (which of course hero did), I think you have to push river.

Peace

Goodie