HSNL prop bet

palman · #1 01-13-2007, 06:17 AM

currently we're an hour and thirty minutes into a 5 hour prop bet.

The bet is this:

a HSNL player (10/20 regular) has to play no more than 5 tables of .5/1 6 max on FT. If at any time he is up $400, he wins $400. If he fails to reach the target, he owes the $400. He has 5 hours to play.

Who's got the best side of the bet? Realize that the participant is obviously drinking, and not going to take it all that seriously. Furthermore, the games are significantly tougher than you'd imagine a .5/1 game being. Most of the opponents won't donk off a stack with any QJ,KJ type top pair hand.

What's the EV for all participants?

This all started because I found out I had $48 in my FT account and ran it up to 2k. I decided I'd run it up to 10k but I'm having problems at the low stakes. Obviously I'm thinking I'm making a grand a day and my roommates are snickering at me when I complain about the games.

Kala1928 · #2 01-13-2007, 07:22 AM

I dont think its possible to win 4(four) buyins multitabling 6max .5/1NL in just 5(five) hours, sorry but nobody is going to go for this bet.

Post-Oak · #3 01-13-2007, 07:25 AM

[ QUOTE ]
currently we're an hour and thirty minutes into a 5 hour prop bet.

The bet is this:

a HSNL player (10/20 regular) has to play no more than 5 tables of .5/1 6 max on FT. If at any time he is up $400, he wins $400. If he fails to reach the target, he owes the $400. He has 5 hours to play.

Who's got the best side of the bet? Realize that the participant is obviously drinking, and not going to take it all that seriously. Furthermore, the games are significantly tougher than you'd imagine a .5/1 game being. Most of the opponents won't donk off a stack with any QJ,KJ type top pair hand.

What's the EV for all participants?

This all started because I found out I had $48 in my FT account and ran it up to 2k. I decided I'd run it up to 10k but I'm having problems at the low stakes. Obviously I'm thinking I'm making a grand a day and my roommates are snickering at me when I complain about the games.

[/ QUOTE ]

You have way the best of it.

Let's say his winrate is 10 Poker Tracker Big Blinds (PTBB) per 100 hands. This means 20 BBs, which is $20. He can play 5 tables at most, so let's say he play 350 hands per hour. That means his expected profit in one hour of play is $70, and $350 for his full 5 hours. Of course, I was very generous to assume a win rate as high as 10 PTBB and a hands played rate of 350/hour.

Now obviously variance means he definitely could win $400 or more in 5 hours, but I think it's clear that his chances are less than 50%.

Apathy · #4 01-13-2007, 08:55 AM

P-Oak,

Ill bet any amount you want (4k minimum-25k max) that I can do this. Ill even give you even money.

ahnuld · #5 01-13-2007, 10:51 AM

Worst bet ever. Any competent HSNL player can easily do this without even focusing.

MDMA · #6 01-13-2007, 11:03 AM

Uhm, is it only me or does those calculations that Post-Oak presented do seem reasonable, if so I just can't see how you can expect to run at 10ptbb for 5 hours, I just don't get what you are saying ahnuld, how this is "easily doable without even concentrating", sounds like total BS to me.

Obviously this is doable, just can't figure out how you can ever EXPECT to do it more than 50%.

ahnuld · #7 01-13-2007, 11:09 AM

I have 4k swings at 1000$ nl every day, and I never play more than 4 hours a day, normally 8 tabling. I dont need to finish up that amount after 4 hours, just hit it once. Im sure ill catch some sort of + variance by sheer fluke.

Ill prop bet it myself with you MDMA if you want, although I admit it will be hard to verify and basically if we do make a bet you would just have to trust my honest.

MDMA · #8 01-13-2007, 11:15 AM

Uh, you do realize that the fact that variance causes you to swing doesn't really make THAT big of a difference? You could just as well start out losing as winning and then all those swings up and down will still obviously not get you ahead by 400. Those 4k swings you are talking about doesn't necessarily mean you are at +4k all too often.

wtfsvi · #9 01-13-2007, 11:40 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Uhm, is it only me or does those calculations that Post-Oak presented do seem reasonable, if so I just can't see how you can expect to run at 10ptbb for 5 hours, I just don't get what you are saying ahnuld, how this is "easily doable without even concentrating", sounds like total BS to me.

Obviously this is doable, just can't figure out how you can ever EXPECT to do it more than 50%.

[/ QUOTE ] If the bet is for enough money it makes sense to alter your play to increase variance after X hours if you are not close to your goal. And you can quit whenver you reach it. I think a good strategy for this bet and an excellent player should put the chances over 50%.

UncatchableFish · #10 01-13-2007, 12:50 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Uh, you do realize that the fact that variance causes you to swing doesn't really make THAT big of a difference? You could just as well start out losing as winning and then all those swings up and down will still obviously not get you ahead by 400. Those 4k swings you are talking about doesn't necessarily mean you are at +4k all too often.

[/ QUOTE ]

Variance helps you're bet nicely here. You can control the variance when and if you need to. If you just played in the highest variance style w/ 0EV in the game and good timing of when to quit it's +EV for the bet.

Think of just doing constant $50 coinflips for 5 hours on w/ this bet, if i make $400 i quit and win the bet, if i drop below -$400 (equal chance on the other side of the situation) then i just continue. So i never 'bottom out'.

If you put a bottom limit on at which point i have to quit then variance doesn't matter.