Not So Weird Pre-Flop Spot

[Entity]

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I folded. I hesitated a bit, which might well have telegraphed button that I didn't have a big hand.

Button raised and later told me that had I raised I was going to get 3-bet with just about anything he had--80% of time or more, even if I hadn't hesitated. I thought this would indeed be the case and I didn't want to be playing Q-6 out of position against a very tough opponent.

Michael Davis's limp-reraise proposal is intriguing. It still puts me in the position of playing Q-6 against a top opponent, but it sure would make him think he was up against a monster, especially given my image.

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One would think that if you were going to get 3-bet 80%+ of the time, you wouldn't limp-reraise, but you'd raise-intending to 4bet, yes? But if you thought you were getting 3bet 80% of the time, I don't hate a fold here.

Rob

[vmacosta]

the 2p2er is dumb for 3-betting 80% of his hands here. But the only way to exploit his monkey tendencies is by folding stuff that can't beat 80% of his range (q6s just barely is behind, q7s is borderline, and q8s is ahead).

In this rare instance, the dead money is significantly negated by the fact that the aggro monkey has position on you, the pot will tend to be big so the dead money will only be ~10% of the total pot anyhow, and the blinds can still pick up a monster.

[emerson]

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the 2p2er is dumb for 3-betting 80% of his hands here. But the only way to exploit his monkey tendencies is by folding stuff that can't beat 80% of his range (q6s just barely is behind, q7s is borderline, and q8s is ahead).

In this rare instance, the dead money is significantly negated by the fact that the aggro monkey has position on you, the pot will tend to be big so the dead money will only be ~10% of the total pot anyhow, and the blinds can still pick up a monster.

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I have to strongly disagree with this. If you raise and he 3 bets, the blinds fold and you call, the dead money makes up 2.5 bets of the 8.5 bet pot. Your investment is about 35.3%. You can add a little more to the requirement because you are out of position, but you should definately play any hand that has 38% equity or so against his range, which he says is 80%. You don't need to be a favorite against his range to have positive ev. Any two random cards have about 47% equity against a big range like this. You have to play anything other than complete garbage. Any two cards 6 or higher, any pair, any two suited should be a good range.

[Heisenb3rg]

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I folded. I hesitated a bit, which might well have telegraphed button that I didn't have a big hand.

Button raised and later told me that had I raised I was going to get 3-bet with just about anything he had--80% of time or more, even if I hadn't hesitated. I thought this would indeed be the case and I didn't want to be playing Q-6 out of position against a very tough opponent.

Michael Davis's limp-reraise proposal is intriguing. It still puts me in the position of playing Q-6 against a top opponent, but it sure would make him think he was up against a monster, especially given my image.

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One would think that if you were going to get 3-bet 80%+ of the time, you wouldn't limp-reraise, but you'd raise-intending to 4bet, yes? But if you thought you were getting 3bet 80% of the time, I don't hate a fold here.

Rob

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Glad im not the only one who sees clearly the right play if he 3-bets you with 80% of his hands [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

If you limp, the blinds are WAY more likely to call, so a limp re-raise is pretty crazy because not only is your equity worse, but your fold equity has gone down drastically by vitue of adding another player.
Any pair is calling you down because your LRR seems a little fishy.

Your not raise/capping for value, your raise capping for insane fold equity post flop. I doubt even most world class players would be convinced you were capable of doing this. ALso if BB/SB comes in, do not cap OBV.

[MitchL]

I honestly think folding is fine.

[vmacosta]

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the 2p2er is dumb for 3-betting 80% of his hands here. But the only way to exploit his monkey tendencies is by folding stuff that can't beat 80% of his range (q6s just barely is behind, q7s is borderline, and q8s is ahead).

In this rare instance, the dead money is significantly negated by the fact that the aggro monkey has position on you, the pot will tend to be big so the dead money will only be ~10% of the total pot anyhow, and the blinds can still pick up a monster.

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I have to strongly disagree with this. If you raise and he 3 bets, the blinds fold and you call, the dead money makes up 2.5 bets of the 8.5 bet pot. Your investment is about 35.3%. You can add a little more to the requirement because you are out of position, but you should definately play any hand that has 38% equity or so against his range, which he says is 80%. You don't need to be a favorite against his range to have positive ev. Any two random cards have about 47% equity against a big range like this. You have to play anything other than complete garbage. Any two cards 6 or higher, any pair, any two suited should be a good range.

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I'd love for a third party we both trust to work things out here but I strongly suspect that you can't play 62s or t6o profitably here.

look i dont know exactly how much to devalue our crappier hands due to poor RIOs, possibility blinds wake up with a monster, and bad position. My guess is you need to play somewhat less than 50% of your hands here though.

[cowboy billy]

if we give button a hand range of about 70-80% and stove it, we're about even money with Q6s

subtract some value for the times we're oop against a solid player and add some value for the times we get it HU with BB

we'll find ourselves more often in a -EV situation against button (70-80%) than in a +EV situation against BB, which means not a lot will be left from the dead money in the pot

otoh, I find it hard to believe that button would even raise 70% of the "top" hands, bc those include J3o and 62s as well

AND if he's indeed as good as you say he is, he should also know the same applies to you and I don't think he'd want to build a big pot against a solid player with a hand like J3o, but of course I might be wrong

there are also other scenario's possible, but let's keep it simple:
I think you'll find yourself at least 60% of the times in a -EV situation against button bc of his positional advantage, which is negated somewehat by the 3sb of dead money in the pot, allthough it will cost us more pre flop

I think you'll find yourself well under 40% of the times in a +EV situation against BB bc of your positional advantage and the 3sb of dead money in the pot

if you put it all together, I think it's a marginal situation at best and you should only raise if you feel confident about your skills in HU pots