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  #81  
Old 11-22-2005, 11:19 PM
Bullet_Dodger Bullet_Dodger is offline
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Default Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #3 Flop B

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I can call this miniraise with a wide range of hands, not just JJ or 57. A call is in no way giving him information.


[/ QUOTE ]

You don't think the opponent will put you on "probable over pair"?

What range do you think the opponent will put you on after you
-bet preflop
-make a standard continuation bet on a very ragged board
-call a raise

What range does the opponent have you on?

[/ QUOTE ]

Once again, we are applying our own thought processes to our opponents. There are plenty of people out there who don't even try to figure out your potential holdings. All they see is their own cards (I've got a pair of 9's, woo-hoo!)

There are also plenty of terrible players who see on the flop that they have a "straight draw" or "flush draw" (when in actuality they need to catch running cards to make such a hand)

[/ QUOTE ]

Beat me to it, Grand.
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  #82  
Old 11-22-2005, 11:23 PM
jon_1van jon_1van is offline
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Default Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #3 Flop B

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I can call this miniraise with a wide range of hands, not just JJ or 57. A call is in no way giving him information.


[/ QUOTE ]

You don't think the opponent will put you on "probable over pair"?

What range do you think the opponent will put you on after you
-bet preflop
-make a standard continuation bet on a very ragged board
-call a raise

What range does the opponent have you on?

[/ QUOTE ]

Once again, we are applying our own thought processes to our opponents. There are plenty of people out there who don't even try to figure out your potential holdings. All they see is their own cards (I've got a pair of 9's, woo-hoo!)

There are also plenty of terrible players who see on the flop that they have a "straight draw" or "flush draw" (when in actuality they need to catch running cards to make such a hand)

[/ QUOTE ]


Very true, point taken.
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  #83  
Old 11-23-2005, 01:50 AM
Paul Thomson Paul Thomson is offline
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Default Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #3 Flop B

Alright I finally got a hold of Pokerstove and have been playing with some numbers. Here's what I found:

I had to take some liberty in making assumptions for our opponents range of hands...sorry if you disagree.

PREFLOP--Opponents range of hand:Preflop: Any pocket pair, any suited connectors (45 and above--throws away 23s etc), any one-gap suited connectors (46 and above), AJ+.

FLOP: 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

FLOP--POT EQUITY (no betting):
Hero's Equity= 75% of the pot or $127.50
Villian's Equity= 25% of the pot or $42.50
The pot has $170

We could discuss the implications of this, but it gets much more interesting if we limit the range of our opponents hand after the flop betting.

Action: BB checks. Hero bets t140. BB raises to t300. The pot has $610

FLOP--Opponents range of hand--post action (Caveat...I did not take into account that he could be on a total bluff. Sorry...I'll redo the numbers later if I have time):
Any pocket pair 55+ (55,66,77, etc),
Any flush draw
Any straight draw
Any made straight (68)
Any pair with a gut draw (56s,67s,78s,89s,9Ts...not hearts)
Any 9Js (not hearts).


FLOP POT EQUITY--Opponents Limited Range:

Hero's Equity= 65% of the pot
Villian's Equity= 35% of the pot

Then I figured the pot equity for the Hero and Villian based upon different Turn cards:

POT EQUITY--Based on various turn cards and Villian's limited range of hands as stated above:

Turn: 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
Hero's Equity= 77%
Villian's Equity= 23%

Turn: T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
Hero's Equity= 65%
Villian's Equity= 35%

Turn: J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
Hero's Equity= 60%
Villian's Equity= 40%

Turn: 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
Hero's Equity= 66%
Villian's Equity= 34%

Turn: J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
Hero's Equity= 50%
Villian's Equity= 50%

Turn: 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
Hero's Equity= 50%
Villian's Equity= 50%

Below Hero has less equity:

Turn: 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
Hero's Equity= 42%
Villian's Equity= 58%

Turn: 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
Hero's Equity= 42%
Villian's Equity= 58%

Turn: 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
Hero's Equity= 35%
Villian's Equity= 65%

Turn: 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
Hero's Equity= 38%
Villian's Equity= 42%

Thoughts: It was more or less what I expected, but I thought that it was interesting that the 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] reduced the Hero's equity almost as much as an 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. I guess being counterfeited has a large influence.

Implications: So I grouped every possible card that could come on the turn into a set based upon how significantly it effected Hero's pot equity.

GROUP A: Turn: 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img][img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img][img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] for a total of 4 cards.
Hero's Equity= 95%

GROUP B: Turn: A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img][img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img][img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img][img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img][img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img][img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img][img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img][img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img][img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img][img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img][img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img](in other words no heart) for a total of 15 different turn cards:
Hero's Equity= 75% of the pot.

GROUP C: Turn: J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img][img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img][img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img][img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img][img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img][img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img][img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img](in other words no hearts) or 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] for a total of 15 different turn cards.
Hero's Equity= 59%-68% of the pot.

GROUP D: Turn: 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img][img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img][img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] for a total of 5 cards.
Hero's Equity= 50-56% of the pot.

GROUP E: Turn: 9 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 6 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] for a total of 8 cards.
Hero's Equity= 35-42% of the pot.

SO WHAT ALL THIS MEANS IS:
Note that the above groupings account for all 47 unseen turn cards.

The pot has $610.00

On the turn:
Group A: Hero's Pot Equity 8% of the time will be $580 (95% of the pot)
Group B: Hero's Pot Equity 32% of the time will be $458 (75% of the pot)
Group C: Hero's Pot Equity 32% of the time will be $397 (65% of the pot)
Group D: Hero's Pot Equity 11% of the time will be $317 (52% of the pot)
Group E: Hero's Pot Equity 17% of the time will be $232 (38% of the pot)

TURN POT EQUITY:
The weighted sum of the Hero's Pot Equity on the Turn based upon the opponents range of hands is:

Pot Equity = (.08x580)+(.32x458)+(.32x397)+(.11x317)+(.17x232)
= ( 46.4 )+( 146.56 )+( 127.04 )+( 34.87 )+( 39.44 )
= $394.31

TURN POT EQUITY= $394.31 or 65% of the pot

Note that this is the exact same number that Poker Stove gave for our pot equity at the top of this post.

So how can you and I use this?
Dicuss what you'd do differently if a card from Group A vs Group B vs Group C vs Group D vs Group E came on the turn. And you can discuss it in terms of how it effects the Hero's pot equity!!


Or discuss why my range of hands for the Villian sucked and why I suck and why this post was a big waste of time. If people HATE that I didn't include any hands that would be a total bluff, I will redo the numbers with the villian bluffing 10% of the time which Harrington suggests is typical. Or if someone wants to start a post about what the Villian's range is, and there is some consensus then I'd be happy to use it.

And if you thought this post was useful and interesting, just wait until you start plugging in numbers for various river cards...check out my following post.
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  #84  
Old 11-23-2005, 02:01 AM
mts mts is offline
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Default nice post

this is really good information. ill communicate my thoughts when i'm not intoxicated.
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  #85  
Old 11-23-2005, 04:57 AM
beenben beenben is offline
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Default Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #3 Flop B

1) No I don't always assume monsters, but you have to think about it when you get check raised and the check raise is to an amount that invites a call (i.e. is not too big).
It's early in the tournament and I don't mind the image right now that they can push me around. I'll push back when I have something closer to the nuts.

2) he really could have any two cards and have defended his blinds with them, including 95o

3) If A-B, if C-D, etc. just gets too complicated at this early stage. But I should start thinking ahead more.
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  #86  
Old 11-23-2005, 03:56 PM
allenciox allenciox is offline
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Default Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #3 Flop B

Again, I am responding before seeing other responses...

1) I now read BB as an excellent player. This is a great bet designed to get us to think. He either a) already has a made hand, b) is on a draw, or c) is on a complete bluff. He is giving us pot odds to draw to anything --- overcards, a draw ourselves, whatever, so he wants a call. He is not afraid of us drawing out, so I doubt he has top pair, a set, or two pair (of course, he could be dumber than he appears). He either already has a made straight or has a good draw or is setting up a pure bluff on the turn. If we call this bet, he WILL bet the turn (if it is a semi-bluff he MIGHT check the turn and hope for a free card) trying to make us make a decision whether to pot-commit ourselves. If we re-re-raise, he can drop weak draws or pure bluffs and take all our chips if he does have the straight. If I call and he's on a pure bluff, I can get HIM to blow off chips on the next card, whereas if I re-re-raise I'll lose him. If he is on a semibluff, there are so many possible cards that can beat me I can't know for sure on the next card whether he is betting because he made his hand or is betting to scare me away (however I will have position). If he has the straight and I reraise all-in, he WILL call me but at least I have 4 outs twice to make the boat. This is a tough call. Due to the nature of survival in tournaments I can still accumulate chips if I reraise all-in and he folds, and if he calls my all-in bet on a decent draw, say a flush draw with overcards where he THINKS he has more outs than he does, then I am significantly +EV. So I reraise all-in.

2) He has either a made straight (86), Ax of hearts (particularly if the x pairs the board or is an overcard), JT,J8,KQ,KJ,KT,QJ,QT,Q8,T8,87,76,64 of hearts (I doubt he would have called the preflop raise with other possible heart combinations), and the following hands without one or zero hearts: T8,86,98,76,65, or it is a "pure" bluff with a small pocket pair: 22,33,44,66,88. Again, this is not exhaustive but if he is the kind of player I am thinking about, these are a reasonable guess.

3) There are no future decisions with my raise all-in.
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  #87  
Old 11-23-2005, 05:53 PM
gergery gergery is offline
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Default Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #3 Flop B

[ QUOTE ]
Again, I am responding before seeing other responses...

1) I now read BB as an excellent player. This is a great bet designed to get us to think. He either a) already has a made hand, b) is on a draw, or c) is on a complete bluff. He is giving us pot odds to draw to anything --- overcards, a draw ourselves, whatever, so he wants a call. He is not afraid of us drawing out, so I doubt he has top pair, a set, or two pair (of course, he could be dumber than he appears). He either already has a made straight or has a good draw or is setting up a pure bluff on the turn. If we call this bet, he WILL bet the turn (if it is a semi-bluff he MIGHT check the turn and hope for a free card) trying to make us make a decision whether to pot-commit ourselves. If we re-re-raise, he can drop weak draws or pure bluffs and take all our chips if he does have the straight. If I call and he's on a pure bluff, I can get HIM to blow off chips on the next card, whereas if I re-re-raise I'll lose him. If he is on a semibluff, there are so many possible cards that can beat me I can't know for sure on the next card whether he is betting because he made his hand or is betting to scare me away (however I will have position). If he has the straight and I reraise all-in, he WILL call me but at least I have 4 outs twice to make the boat. This is a tough call. Due to the nature of survival in tournaments I can still accumulate chips if I reraise all-in and he folds, and if he calls my all-in bet on a decent draw, say a flush draw with overcards where he THINKS he has more outs than he does, then I am significantly +EV.

[/ QUOTE ]


Now, a clever BB would put the poison into his own goblet, because he would know that only a great fool would reach for what he was given. Hero is not a great fool, so can clearly not choose the wine in front of you. But BB must have known Hero was not a great fool, you would have counted on it, so he can clearly not choose the wine in front of me!

-g
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  #88  
Old 11-24-2005, 11:29 AM
Che Che is offline
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Default Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #3 Flop B

[ QUOTE ]
1. Many made hands will hang themselves on the turn, but will fold to a flop 3-bet. Hands like A9/K9/JJ will almost always put more money in on the turn but fold to the flop 3-bet. This is very important.

[/ QUOTE ]

Since when do these hands fold on this flop in online tourneys? I guess it's good that I don't ever play this particular event. [img]/images/graemlins/crazy.gif[/img]
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  #89  
Old 02-01-2007, 12:53 PM
mariachiinc mariachiinc is offline
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Default Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #3 Flop B

1) I raise here... he can't put you on much as you may just be trying to steal the pot, so he may just be testing you. If he actually has a hand, it's likely either an overpair (which is good 4 us) The only hand to be worried about is a set... in which case he's going to reraise and we've got a huge decision to make.
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  #90  
Old 02-02-2007, 07:08 PM
kingwood kid kingwood kid is offline
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Default Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #3 Flop B

These are the scariets 160 chips ever, eh? Safe to say villain has something he likes, as obviously 160 more won't chase us out. In putting him on a range, I think we more heavily weight something he would've called 3BB with OOP, such as A9 or 9-10. He could have 6h8h, I suppose, but it's unlikely.

Since it's hard to put him on something with any confidence, I think our play is determined by how we read ourself. If we think we're a very good player, call to keep it small and minimize variance. If we see ourself as an underdog, then variance is our friend, so we push, maybe even shove.
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