NL 100 AK - Best line for scary board?

[bilbo-san]

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i'd bet 15 and fold to anything more than a minraise against an unknown.

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Then you definitely should not bet.

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What is an unknown CR'ing on this flop that we are ahead of?

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An Ace? A gutshot + pair? A stone-cold bluff? Given that you are willing to fold TPTK, Villains should check-raise here a lot.

And ask yourself what worse hands he is calling three streets with? (The implication that you need to check the turn anyway, if you bet the flop and are called. So if you are checking at least one street no matter what, why not the flop?).

Also, if he c/rs, say, QT, you actually have a lot of equity on the flop. The bottom line is that you are going to be making FToP mistakes significantly often if you bet-fold here.

If you are ahead, Villain is drawing pretty thin. There is little need to protect your hand; there isn't a lot of danger in giving free cards. By bet-folding here you are making yourself very exploitable.

On the turn, Villain is a lot less likely to check-raise with any hand we are behind (like pair+gutshot), or indeed check at all with any hand that we are behind!

So if we check the flop, we gain

1) pot control
2) the possibility of getting calls and/or picking off bluffs from hands that we crush
3) more information if Villain checks the turn
4) a far lesser probability of being check-raised off the best hand.

I'll bet this flop often, but usually against Villains that I know are loose-passive and/or are loose-aggressive/bluffy. In the first case I'm happy to fold to a c/r, and in the second I am happy to call or push.

Against an unknown, it's more like 50/50. But if you are c/red by an unknown it is a very sticky spot.