Jameser <3 's porn

[Str8Fish]

I see 3 outs to overs, 0.5 outs for BDSD = 3.5 outs = 12:1 hand odds. I think we might need to improve in this situation, since we have two opponents that like their hands. The pot odds are currently 14.4:1, so it's an obvious call, at least. The question is, what would a raise do for us? Will a raise bump out UTG+2? Only hands we have to worry about him having are AQ, QQ, KQ. I think AQ or KQ bet out on this flop, or they go for a c/r. These guys are aggressive to do either. Also, if we raise, we could also get 3-bet by MP1. The raise drops our pot odds to 14.4:2 = 7.2:1, which is less than our hand odds. If 3-bet, we could be facing 15.4:3 = 5.1:1, which would be awful.

Pluses about calling are the following:
1) we have pot odds to do so, while we don't for a raise.
2) if we call, we get to see what UTG+2's action is. If he c/r we could put him on AQ or QQ+, and also see how MP1 thinks about the c/r. We'd give ourselves relative position by calling in such a situation.

I can't think of any other reasons. I like the call option better though.

[SeaEagle]

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IMO MP3's aggression factor looks more like fit-or-fold TAG than LAG.

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This has gotten to be a bit of a pet peeve with me, but villian has only VPIP'd 17 hands. The 5+ PFA over this period doesn't mean a whole lot. You can probably surmise that villian isn't a calling station, but you can't put him on maniac aggression yet.

This is a fold and it's not very close. If villian still had his 5+ PFA after 300-400 hands, then I'd start to think about raising.

(Not picking on you Xhad, but yours was a convenient post to respond to).

[Str8Fish]

I've read everyone else's posts, and I do not agree that this is a raise/fold only situation. Can someone please challenge my arguments? I call for information, and I think it's the best move.

[Xhad]

SeaEagle, I don't think you quite realized what I was saying with that statement. Even if that 5 PAF was over a respectable sample size, I know guys that are like 15/12/5 that I would turbomuck this flop against. That "5" means that they fold on the late streets a lot, and overplay their big pairs/top pairs even when they get cracked, not that they're total maniacs. In this case if one of those types donked this board he has almost exactly AQ/KQ/QQ and we're boned.

[SeaEagle]

[ QUOTE ]
I see 3 outs to overs, 0.5 outs for BDSD = 3.5 outs = 12:1 hand odds. I think we might need to improve in this situation, since we have two opponents that like their hands. The pot odds are currently 14.4:1, so it's an obvious call, at least.

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Let's say you have 12:1 immediate odds and are getting 14.4:1 pot odds. This is still not a clear call because you have serious reverse implied odds. The is no card that can come on the turn that makes you feel good about your hand. Given that you barely have odds to call a single flop bet, that you are risking having to call a 2nd bet if UTG c/rs, and that you may lose multiple more BBs if any non-Q broadway turns, this is a pretty easy fold.

[Str8Fish]

We do not need to call the c/r bet. We obviously worry about reverse domination, that is why we discount our outs to 1.5 for our overs. Essentially, my standing is to call for information.

[SeaEagle]

Agree with your logic. Just disagreed with this statement:

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That "5" means that they fold on the late streets a lot, and overplay their big pairs/top pairs even when they get cracked, not that they're total maniacs

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My point was that, due to such a small sampling, that "5" means pretty much nothing. You don't know that he's fit or fold, or a maniac, or someone who flopped 3 sets in 17 hands and bet the hell out of them, or somebody who missed 16 flops in a row and folded each time, or...well I'm sure you get my drift.

Basically, I agree with your logic: Absent of a solid read, someone who 3-bets PF and then bets into the capper, with a 3rd person still in the hand, most likely has a real hand. Not the type of hand you want to pay money to keep playing if you're only drawing to top pair.

[Mr. GQ]

The check from the UTG+2 shows weakness, likely two high cards, and underpair to the Q or two big cards. AA or KK is unlikely since you've got an A and K in your hand. When the MP player bets he's laying you the right immediate odds to draw to your A or K (13.4 to 1 on a 7 to 1 draw). However, the preflop action combined with reverse implied odds both really cut your outs down to partial one's, say maybe 3 in total (the backdoor straight is also there, it might be worth one). Now you're about 14 to 1 hit, but the pot is only laying 13.4 to 1. The UTG player also has yet to act (he checked), and you could be facing more bets. This looks like a fold to me.