$400NL. AA.... fold river?!?!?

[DanJ.]

im pretty sure villain never has QQ here...
I think villains hand range is what jfish said it was but a little bit tighter (take out like J8dd, A8dd, etc...)

Also villain probably doesnt think we have set/76 because we're raising the flop with those a lot. I think villain puts us on 7x or 88+...its a good bluffing spot for him.

[FireStorm]

Villain puts us on 7x and it's a good bluffing spot for him?

[DanJ.]

yea, when 7x is small portion of our range.

[jfish]

also SUPER basic question, but this is how you convert odds to % right? we are getting 1.4:1 on river, meaning we have to be good (1-[(1.4)/(1+(1.4)]) = 42%. right?

[Unknown Soldier]

i do 1/[1.4+1] but that amounts to the same thing i think.

[AAismyfriend]

jfish, I agree with your line of thought in this thread, but given his preflop stats and his cold call from the SB I think his range is weighted a lot more towards small PPs, so I don't think this is a draw turned into a bluff as often as you think it might be.

[jfish]

yea hm you might be right. still a super narrow legitimate range for him. and we have the second strongest hand we can possibly have (after QQ). folding this seems exploitable.

[jfish]

and we've shown zero strength, 99% of our range cannot call this. it seems like a poor valueshove if he does have a FH.

[jfish]

my math sucks, 42% of his bluffing range is wrong.

[jfish]

friend: yeah I dont think thats how you do it when talking about the percent he has to bluff with his bluffing range
me: yea i realize its wrong
friend: well that would be I guess
friend: the amount he has to be bluffing with his entire range
friend: so the amount is smaller for just his bluffing range
friend: sine that is a smaller part of his total range
friend: dont know how to do it
me: so ok
friend: I mean if we make it really simple
friend: let me think here
me: we have to have 42% equity
me: vs his river betting range
friend: with the combos and giving them the same probability
me: we have 0% equity vs his made hands
me: and 100% vs his bluffs
friend: its about 70% bluffs 30% valuebets
me: so he has to be bluffing 42%
me: isnt that right?
friend: yeah
friend: didnt think thats what you meant
me: it wasnt
me: im reasoning it backwards now
friend: I mean the amount of time he bluffs river given he is on air
friend: that is what you mean right?
me: so 42% of the time he has to have a bluff, meaning he has to have x/y = .42 where x = bluffing combos, y = legit hand combos + bluffing combos
me: legit hand combos = 13
friend: uh I think that looks better hmm
me: so1-( x/13+x)= .42
me: does that look right?
friend: hold on
friend: yeah I guess that looks right but I dont know if that solves the problem of hiss bluffing frequency
friend: let me think
friend: what is X in that
me: 1 - (x/(x+13)) = 0.42

-x/(x+13) = -0.58

x/(x+13) = 0.58
x = 0.58(x+13)
x = 0.58x + 7.54
0.42x = 7.54
x = 17.9 = 18
me: so if he is bluffing with 18/(29+18) combos its +ev
friend: that sounds more right
me: he has to be bluffing with 38% of his bluffing range