2-4 live game, + or - EV?

marrek · #1 10-23-2007, 01:59 PM

Hi all

This is from a 2-4 live game ( $400 buy-in). I've got a decent read on most players, and some very reliable tells on 3.

I've been at the table about an hour, played one hand and am up ~100. I raised pre-flop on another hand and won the blinds.

I'm in middle position and raise with A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. Not for hand value but because big blind is a fish who 'flop stares' when he misses.

So i raise to 16, but the button calls ( short stacked ) as does the big blind. flop comes 7 8 K with 2 dimonds. BB flop stares ( so he missed) and the button does not look too happy, so I lead for 35. Button thinks, works himself up, and shoves in for $115 or $80 more.

BB folds.

I have a tell that the button is weak, so I strongly believe the button is pushing a drawing hand and is giving me 2-1 on my $$. I'm about 90% sure he is drawing, and 10% that he has a weak pair ( but better than my 7s).

So, is +EV to call against his range hands? What pot odds would make it +EV?

oyvindgee · #2 10-23-2007, 03:47 PM

If your read is correct which it probably isn't then this is an easy call. Also wrong forum.

marrek · #3 10-23-2007, 07:46 PM

So, what is the right forum?

How is this an easy call? If he has T9 Str8 draw, then he has 14 outs, with 2 cards to come, thats 67%, making it even money.

P.S. my read is dead on.

mark

pzhon · #4 10-23-2007, 10:19 PM

[ QUOTE ]
So, what is the right forum?

[/ QUOTE ]
One of the NL strategy forums, probably micro stakes, or the beginners forum.

[ QUOTE ]
How is this an easy call? If he has T9 Str8 draw, then he has 14 outs, with 2 cards to come, thats 67%, making it even money.

P.S. my read is dead on.

[/ QUOTE ]
A7 is a 67-33 underdog against T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], which gives your opponent a flush draw, an open-ended straight draw, and overcards to your pair, 20 outs. Draws with 14 outs are usually close to 50%, depending on the redraws and backdoor draws.

If your read is right, then this is a very easy call. However, if you don't know the odds, or how to handle this calculation, then I don't believe your read is dead on.