a hand vs PA, 200/400 HU

[Requin]

How often is he CRing paired flops, or unlikely-to-have-hit flops in general? Has it been your tendency to call alot or to reraise in those spots, when you have a hand/choose to play back?

Do you think he expects a fold or a play if you have a big ace?

[KRANTZ]

[ QUOTE ]
How often is he CRing paired flops, or unlikely-to-have-hit flops in general? Has it been your tendency to call alot or to reraise in those spots, when you have a hand/choose to play back?

Do you think he expects a fold or a play if you have a big ace?

[/ QUOTE ]

good questions. something i neglected to add is that he LOVES checkraising paired boards on the flop, way more so than any other type of board texture. i've been calling and folding a lot of turns in general, although i did call and jam a turn once and he folded (when we had shallower stacks, though).

two hands of note: the first time i 3-bet his c/r on a paired board with a flush draw i got 4-bet really small and thought about jamming Q high no draw but didn't. another hand i got c/red 200bb deep when i had a gutshot and BD nut flush draw. he bet the turn, which made the flush and gave me the NFD, i raised, and he thought for a long time and moved in and i folded.

i think based on the way i played flop and turn he does not think i'm as strong as a flush (which is why I just called and didn't raise the turn).

[btmagnetw]

in what instances has PA checked the turn after a c/r? very rarely?

[KRANTZ]

[ QUOTE ]
in what instances has PA checked the turn after a c/r? very rarely?

[/ QUOTE ]

not very often at all, and he checkraises a lot. fun, right? i changed up my c-betting frequency after awhile, though, but this hand occurred before i started getting tricky like that.

[btmagnetw]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
in what instances has PA checked the turn after a c/r? very rarely?

[/ QUOTE ]

not very often at all, and he checkraises a lot. fun, right? i changed up my c-betting frequency after awhile, though, but this hand occurred before i started getting tricky like that.

[/ QUOTE ]ugh in that case, i feel like you have to call.

if PA nearly always follows through on the turn after a flop c/r, then we can disregard the strength of the turn bet. furthermore, if he was bluffing and decided to give up on the turn after the strength you showed, he would certainly decide that the 4 was a perfect card to continue his bluff. thus, we can disregard the strength of his river bet.

so this hinges on his range to c/r the flop, which i must assume, is huge. call, but not happy about it.

[FlyingStart]

You didnt supply any reads of his betsizing, but his riverbetsize looks more like bluff/FH than a worse flush valuebetting, especially considering the sick price he would be getting if you shoved.

If your read is correct he will have pretty wide range after the flop. On the turn he probably follows through his entire range since the flush completes.

With this in mind you probably have the best hand a big % of the time. Since the river brings another scarecard he will probably fire the third barrel a decent amount too since you might lay down a flush or might have something like 8 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]8x.

So I vote for cry, then call

[KRANTZ]

[ QUOTE ]
You didnt supply any reads of his betsizing, but his riverbetsize looks more like bluff/FH than a worse flush valuebetting, especially considering the sick price he would be getting if you shoved.


[/ QUOTE ]

i couldn't figure out any bet-sizing tells

[Astyanax]

Can someone list their thoughts (i.e. detail percentages for each range) on the makeup of PA's bluffs his monsters and thin value-bets. This is a really great hand.

Bluffing:
Total Air (less than King High)/Underpair counterfeited
Overpair/Middle-pair/Ace High/10 turned into bluff

Thin/relatively thin Value Betting:
Ace high
Overpair
Lower flush
Higher Flush

Monsters:

Quads
Boat/Overboat
Nutflush

We need to hear Strasser's views on psbetting for value and bluffing and two-way bets on similar boards when there is metagame involved.

[Orlando Salazar]

VV cool post.
Simple: PA is not a spew monkey bluff tard. U have a bluff catcher by the river, so fold. Only thing he's vbetting is the full house or maybe better flush.

What hand range can u put him on given read?
PF: Anything suited, 22+, 67o+, Not AA/KK/QQ (i've seen him just defend HU with jacks).
Flop: AJ-AK,QKd,JTc+,45d, A(2-5)s, AXc,any 8+ out draw, 33-99, A4o,7c8x
Turn:AXc,TT,x6,7c8x,44,QJc+
River:AcTx (as a bluff), x6, TT, 44, QJc+

Obv the math against this range makes it a call vs the logic of the hand. But I think u need to call here for metagame.

[Lucky]

I call here for sure. He almost never has the six, and rarely the 4. More importantly, he thinks you never have it, so he bets. call