Two Plus Two Newer Archives A tough variance problem (at least for me)
 FAQ Members List Calendar Search Today's Posts Mark Forums Read

 Thread Tools Display Modes
#21
11-01-2007, 11:32 PM
 TNixon Senior Member Join Date: Apr 2007 Posts: 616
Re: A tough variance problem (at least for me)

[ QUOTE ]
I read your example. It was a confused mess, and the method does not work.

[/ QUOTE ]
Wow. On the drive home, I realized what a true maroon I was being here.

std. deviation is a measure of the variation of individual results around the mean, but for my comparison to work, I would have had to be able to compare against the variation of *accumulated* results around the "accumulated" mean, or average expectation.

There's probably a way to do that, but my brain hurts, and it's definitely not as simple as I was trying to make it.

Which is exactly what pzhon was saying here:

[ QUOTE ]
Having a downswing of a particular size is very different from losing that amount in a fixed number of hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

He just said it far too simply for me to actually understand.

You can all stop laughing now. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Ah well. I told you all I was over my head here, and the easiest way to gain understanding is through massive bouts of stupidity, right?

...

RIGHT?

[img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]
#22
11-03-2007, 12:33 AM
 rufus Senior Member Join Date: Aug 2005 Posts: 425
Re: A tough variance problem (at least for me)

[ QUOTE ]
Ah well. I told you all I was over my head here, and the easiest way to gain understanding is through massive bouts of stupidity, right?

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not sure if it's the easiest, but it's certainly a popular route. Struggling puts you in good company.

'Problems worthy of attack, prove their worth by hitting back' - Piet Hein
#23
11-04-2007, 01:57 PM
 pococurante Senior Member Join Date: Jul 2007 Location: VA Posts: 138
Re: A tough variance problem (at least for me)

I think this can be simplified to some extent, and still get numbers that are semi accurate.

In your average pot, you either gain \$1 or lose \$1. Over 100 hands, you average a \$16 profit. Therefore, you win 58% of the hands and lose 42% of them.

So to find the odds for 1000 hands...

sqrt{(1000*.58*(.42)}
sqrt(243.6)
standard deviation = 15.61
expected wins = 580
actual wins (for a \$500 loss) = 250
# of deviations = 14.7

Something that's 7 deviations away from the EV has odds of about 1 in 385,000,000,000 of happening... so you can imagine what 14.7 deviations means.

So anyway, according to these numbers:

68% chance to be within \$15.60 of your expected \$160 profit
95% chance to be within \$31.20
99% chance to be within \$46.80

Now that I see the results... those are too consistent for how poker really works. I realize now it's because I didn't count the variance on your 58% winrate, and the variance on the \$1 pot size. If I had to guess... just double the above numbers (65% to be within \$31, for instance) and that sounds reasonable.

Bottom line: no way in hell are you going to lose \$500 in 1000 hands. Unless you're the type to tilt and then move way up in stakes so you can win it back faster... then it's all but guaranteed to happen.

It's pretty obvious when you look at the basic facts, too. With those kinds of pots, what are you playing? Probably 10nl. Who the hell has a 50 buyin downswing in 1000 hands? Unless you're tuff_fish, losing a buyin every 20 hands is pretty hard to do.
#24
11-04-2007, 02:05 PM
 pococurante Senior Member Join Date: Jul 2007 Location: VA Posts: 138
Re: A tough variance problem (at least for me)

BTW given your example of WLLWLWLLW in the original post, I was assuming this is a heads up game.

 Thread Tools Display Modes Linear Mode

 Posting Rules You may not post new threads You may not post replies You may not post attachments You may not edit your posts BB code is On Smilies are On [IMG] code is On HTML code is Off Forum Rules
 Forum Jump User Control Panel Private Messages Subscriptions Who's Online Search Forums Forums Home Two Plus Two     Two Plus Two Internet Magazine     The Two Plus Two Bonus Program     Special Sklansky Forum     About the Forums     MOD DISCUSSION     Test General Poker Discussion     Beginners Questions     Books and Publications     Televised Poker     News, Views, and Gossip     Brick and Mortar     Home Poker     Poker Beats, Brags, and Variance     Poker Theory     Poker Legislation Coaching/Training     Stoxpoker.com     DeucesCracked.com German Forums     Poker Allgemein: Poker in general     Strategie: Holdem NL cash [German]     Strategie: Sonstige     Internet/Online [German]     BBV [German]     Small Talk [German] French Forums     Forum Francophone     Strategie [French]     BBV [French] Limit Texas Hold'em     Texas Hold'em     High Stakes Limit     Medium Stakes Limit     Small Stakes Limit     Micro Stakes Limit     Mid-High Stakes Shorthanded     Small Stakes Shorthanded     Limit-->NL PL/NL Texas Hold'em     High Stakes     Medium Stakes     Small Stakes     Micro Stakes     Full Ring Tournament Poker     MTT Strategy     High Stakes MTT     MTT Community     STT Strategy     Tournament Circuit/WSOP Other Poker     Omaha/8     Omaha High     Stud     Heads Up Poker     Other Poker Games General Gambling     Probability     Psychology     Sports Betting     Other Gambling Games     Entertainment Betting     Money Making and Other Business Discussion Internet Gambling     Internet Gambling     Internet Bonuses     Affiliates/RakeBack     Software     Poker Site Software, Skins, & Networks 2+2 Communities     Other Other Topics     The Lounge: Discussion+Review     EDF     BBV4Life Other Topics     Sporting Events     Politics     Business, Finance, and Investing     Travel     Science, Math, and Philosophy     Health and Fitness     Student Life     Golf     Video Games     Puzzles and Other Games     Laughs or Links!     Computer Technical Help     Bin Sponsored Support Forums     RakebackNetwork     RakeBackDepot     RakeReduction.com Rakeback     PokerSavvy

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 08:30 AM.

 Contact Us - www.twoplustwo.com - Archive - Top