Reviewed hand, still confused with ATs

[VickreyAuction]

A full 9-card flush draw gives about 35% equity, so you need 3 people in the hand for your bets to be value bets. A full 8-card OESD gives about 31% equity, so you need 4 people in the hand for your bets to be value bets. And in general, if you flop a FD or an OESD, you're probably getting the right pot odds to chase even if you are heads-up.

[Zachass]

Grunch:
It seems to me that you're right about not having the equity for a flop raise to be profitable. I think it is profitable though, because it is a straightforward application of the free card play, though I'm not sure if that works it .01/.02 the raise looks good to me, especially because your opponents checked on the turn. Raising the river is probably a waste of a bet, just wince and call his probable flush.

[Leobzook]

Maybe I am wrong but I am raising the flop here, not for value but for a free card and maybe to get SB to fold something like A9.

[Str8Fish]

I don't like the river raise. When you have a straight that only uses 1 of your hole cards, it's not as strong as using both. Also, since a 3rd card to a flush hit, and SB wakes up, I'd just call here.

[ThunderEagle]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Are not we also raising for value here?

[/ QUOTE ]

Define the highlighted term, and then explain how that's what Hero is doing.

[/ QUOTE ]

In my intial pass at a reply to this I see a little more where you are coming from. My first thought was that we win this hand more than 1/3 of the time, but I think where the problem here is, since SB checked, our raise has a good chance to blow SB out of the hand, at witch time we don't win more than 50% of the time. Follow me here a minute, if SB had bet and MP called, then we would be raising for value, yes?

Also, that wasn't the only reason I like the raise on the flop. You have the free card play, and maybe this next point really isn't different from the free card play, but I want control of this hand again, I'm not going to just follow along behind MP. We also don't know for sure on the flop that MP has the flush draw, it is on radar. I believe have 2 A outs, 3 K outs, and 3 8 outs. After thinking about it overnight, 2 might be too many to assign to the A outs, but I don't know I would have come up with that in the hand as it played.

[Twitch1977]

I rarely disagree with boz but in this case I have to. As others have pointed out I think raising the flop is a clear cut text book shot at a free card.

There was no real aggression pre-flop except for the Hero, nothing from the preflop or flop action to give any reason to think that a free card play here won't be successful at least frequently enough to do quite a bit better than just breaking even.

Even though raising may not be for value alone, combining that with the chance for a free card, in my opinion, make his play on the flop correct. Even if it is a thin +/-EV play I think it is far from being something that can be classified as 'silly.'

T

Everything here down is an edit as I refine/add to my thoughts:

The flow raise def. won't be for value since there is a chance you will split the pot if you hit your flush.

However I still fully support the flop raise. If you just call you're giving the blinds 9:1 to make the call and they're probably justified calling with weird gutshot hands that they could hold. By facing them with two cold you're definetely cutting out their gutshot odds as well as possibly getting them to fold weak aces that will help clear up your ace outs. Combine this with the good chance you can score a free card I can't see any reason to not raise this flop with the bet coming from your immediate right.

T

[davelin]

Grunch...

Call the flop, call the river

[bozlax]

[ QUOTE ]
Follow me here a minute, if SB had bet and MP called, then we would be raising for value, yes?

[/ QUOTE ]

Right-o. Nice work.

As far as the free card play and "taking control of the hand" are concerned, those are valid suggestions (you, too, Twitch). I don't like it on a draw-heavy board like this, tho, as it too frequently works out that all we're doing is pumping somebody else's BETTER draw, if not a made hand (MP is betting into the pfr, after all). IMO your equity is also high enough in these cases that I'd rather not risk blowing a player out of the hand. A nice low-equity, top-pair type draw (AKo on Q63r, for instance) where you might be best UI, and I'm with you all day, every day.