Reviewed hand, still confused with ATs

OrigamiSensei · #1 02-28-2006, 12:30 AM

I'm trying to reply a lot more than post, but...

I was doing a bunch of hand reviews, particularly to see what starting hands I'm having trouble with. It turns out that KQo and ATs are money losers for me so I focused on those. The KQo losses had quite a bit of atrocious stupidity and I simply need to work on my play with that hand. My ATs play did not look as bad, but this hand presented me with a bit of a problem because I'm still not entirely sure what the proper line of play is even after thinking about it.

Ultimate Bet 0.01/0.02 Hold'em (9 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: OrigamiSensei is Button with T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $0.01.
3 folds, MP2 calls, 2 folds, OrigamiSensei raises, SB (poster) calls, 1 fold, MP2 calls.

Flop: (7 SB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, MP2 bets, OrigamiSensei raises, SB calls, MP2 calls.

Turn: (6.50 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, MP2 checks, OrigamiSensei bets, SB calls, MP2 calls.

River: (9.50 BB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB bets, MP2 folds, OrigamiSensei raises, SB calls.

Final Pot: 13.50 BB

Pre-flop is completely standard.

I'm starting to question my flop raise. I know at the time I pretty much fell in love with that straight draw. However, when I went back and ran a bunch of Poker Stove numbers I was surprised to find that I did not have nearly as much pot equity as I thought I did and I'm not entirely sure why. I ran the numbers while I was on a plane, so don't have them to hand, sorry. I do know my calculations showed less than 33% equity with two opponents under several scenarios. In any case that seeming lack of equity makes me question the raise.

Whether I screwed up the flop or not the turn is a no-brainer.

Then on the river I find myself wondering if the raise wasn't spew. Granted I don't want to suffer from MUBS but when SB wakes up for the first time all hand I have to wonder whether simply calling is the best course of action.

My main interest is in the flop on this hand so that's where I'd like to focus discussion. In general I'm finding I have by far the most difficulty with flop play over and above any other aspect of my game.

ThunderEagle · #2 02-28-2006, 01:08 AM

Raising the OESD on the flop is standard.

Should have just called the river when SB wakes up with the 3rd heart hits. Sometimes you do the right things and still lose, your raise on the river was wrong IMO, but you were good until then.

VickreyAuction · #3 02-28-2006, 01:25 AM

Pre-flop is completely standard, I agree.

I like raising that flop, too. You're not raising for equity, you're raising for a free card on the turn, so if you miss your straight, you can check it through to see another card on the river.

Turn is obvious, jam it up.

River, at this level, you have to just call that donkbet. Very often, players will donkbet as soon as they make a hand. SB called 2 cold on the flop, and he wakes up when the third heart hits on a board with an easy straight...that's a huge problem. Just call, and hope he hit 2 pair or a set, or was "slowplaying" a 10.

But yeah, I think your flop play was fine. Free card plays are good stuff. Just play more hands, I bet ATs and KQo will even out for you over time.

OrianasDaad · #4 02-28-2006, 01:32 AM

Grunch

At .01/.02, a raise on the turn is OK if you are sure that you can take a freebie on the turn when you need it.

River raise is bad, I think. A flop cold-caller typically means that he's on a draw, or he's slowplaying a monster, or he's really, really weak. Any time a player like this wakes up on the river when an obvious draw card comes in, raising is probably suspect. The pot is big enough to call, though, but I'd expect to split or lose to a flush here maybe 70% of the time.

ThunderEagle · #5 02-28-2006, 01:38 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Pre-flop is completely standard, I agree.

You're not raising for equity, you're raising for a free card on the turn

[/ QUOTE ]

Are not we also raising for value here? I was looking for a specific example in SSH, but only found one for a nut flush draw. The free turn is part of it as well, but we are specifically raising for value here, with a potential for a free card if we want it. There is still the potential to win if we spike an ace, and the K gives us the nut straight.

bozlax · #6 02-28-2006, 01:45 AM

Here's the issue, Part I: you don't KNOW you're going to have 2 opponents, you can't even be "pretty sure" (a la having an OESD or four-flush where the flop action goes bet-call-you raise and you're pretty sure that having put one in the two in front of you will put in one more), so you can't raise for value, and without a read semi-bluff raising in nano limits really doesn't get you much of anywhere. It doesn't get you much of anywhere, usually, in micros, for that matter, but that's a different story.

Here's the issue, Part II: given that SB cold-called your silly flop play, he was likely on a draw or slow-playing a made hand. When he comes alive on the river, there are two possible draws he was on, and one made hand (unless he's a nutbag that would play like this with less than a straight with an obvious straight and flush on the board); you're TIED with one of the possible draws, and you LOSE to the other two hands. That makes the river raise definitional spew. This is where paying close attention to the action on previous streets becomes invaluable.

bozlax · #7 02-28-2006, 01:47 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Are not we also raising for value here?

[/ QUOTE ]

Define the highlighted term, and then explain how that's what Hero is doing.

VickreyAuction · #8 02-28-2006, 02:20 AM

Hmm...I'm thinking that MP2's flop donkbet means that we're behind to something. Even so, we may have more than the 33% equity we need for 3 people because of the OESD and overcard. The problem is, we have no guarentee that SB's going to come along for the ride (i.e. call 2 cold on the flop). If our raise folds SB out, then we (probably) don't have enough equity to be betting for value heads-up...the OESD + 1 clean overcard would give us 41% equity heads-up against a guy with a paired J or Q. If he's donkbetting with a paired 9, then we DO have 50% equity.

Heads-up with MP3, I do think we're behind on the flop...which is another reason I really like going for a free card. If we check behind on a blank turn, and then hit our straight on the river, he'll probably lead out on the river. We can then raise him, and extract 2 bets. If we miss on the river too, then it's an easy fold, and we only paid 1 SB to chase.

Pokerstove:

Board: Qh 9h Js
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 41.5152 % 40.91% 00.61% { AdTd }
Hand 2: 58.4848 % 57.88% 00.61% { Jc5d }

Board: Qh 9h Js
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 50.3030 % 49.70% 00.61% { AdTd }
Hand 2: 49.6970 % 49.09% 00.61% { 9c5d }

EDIT: I wrote this post before I saw Bozlax's responses (as unbelievable as that may seem, since he wrote his about a half hour ago). I still like the free card play. I think it does work enough in the micros, and if not (if MP3 fires again on the turn), you're still getting the odds to chase anyway.

OrigamiSensei · #9 02-28-2006, 02:52 AM

I'm thinking Boz has the best take on the situation. I mistakenly thought I was raising for value and not for a free card although that could have been a welcome side benefit. The problem is that against the made hand indicated by the donkbet I'm probably behind and if SB fails to call 2 cold this is probably not the greatest hand to be playing heads up. When SB does call two cold I'm probably up against a made hand and a draw. This does mean I have to go back to SSHE and review when it's appropriate to raise a draw for value.

KEW · #10 02-28-2006, 03:01 AM

I do not like the flop raise here...We only have a one card OESD against a with three cards in the playing zone and a flush draw on board...Only three non [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K's give us the nutz and even then opponents will often have redraws getting proper odds against us..The 8 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] completes the flush and the other 3 8's will often lead us to a split pot or even paying off the nut straight....It should also be noted that a free card raise here is also giving a free card to other draws that may have a higher equity then we do...We also can not count an Ace as a clean out..Maybe as low as counting an Ace as only 1/2-1 out...If we held the A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] I would think the flop raise would be clear...