A different sort of stats question

[OrigamiSensei]

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are you still playing by the book?

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I doubt you'd find anything seriously out of line with my stats. Pretty much running the SSHE tight chart with adjustments for reads. 16/9/2.25, 29%WTSD, 53%W$SD. Pre-flop play is pretty solid. My stealing is good, blind defense not quite so good but I try and stay out of trouble. I know I could stand some improvement post-flop. I tend to call down too much when I have a good hand that's beat and my river play could stand some improvement; my river aggression number is too low (about 1.3). At .05/.10 I was 18/9/2.6, 33WTSD and 54W$SD. I'm not some complete weak-tight nit and I'm not a LAGtard. But the only stat that means anything are the red and green numbers and those aren't looking good.

[Ampelmann]

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16/9

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This is a little too tight imo. I play at 18/11 and I wish I'd play a bit more. Although 16/9 is not terribly timid.

[Smurph64]

If you want a lag's perspective on this here it is:

Get semi-drunk drop to the penny tables and have a lag fest. Go with gut instinct, don't think and make decisions in under two seconds. If you drop below 35% VPIP raise five hands in a row. Play raise or fold for infinity aggression. When you are down $5 dollars stop.

The next day look at what happened. You will probably have been involved in multiway pots quite a bit. Take a look at those hands in a sober state and think about what hand ranges the players could be playing you against with. Calculate your odds for continuing and see how many bad plays you made and how many good plays you made.

I did this when I first started and it made a huge difference in understanding how to manipulate pots and control the board.

This is not standard 2+2 protocol but its money well spent.

I have done it a few times, sometimes its a huge winning session but the results are irrelevant, its more a test of your subconcious poker mind than anything and really hones home what areas of weakness you may have.

[OziBattler]

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I always send out my worst sessions for review and nobody ever says "hey Origami, you're tilting".

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at the next review session I am going to pair you up with the roughest, toughest hardass I can find who's sole purpose for the review will be to rip you a new one if you screw up. seriously.

also I have a suggestion (it is something ive been meaning to do but havent yet myself). Go over each review you have had done and be really critical with the feedback you had. Every time you see "I think you should fold the turn" translate it to "FOLD FOLD FOLD YOU FREAKIN MORON, I WONT TELL YOU AGAIN". Look for common comments and make a compliation. you might not see the common comments until you collate.

you might even want to make a count of common mistakes and how much they cost you.

Housecalls and Str8 also do self reviews where they try and
a. count mistakes per 100 hands
b. calculate losses per hundred

all these are ideas that might be worth thinking about.

also i can tell you that you get great review feedback so you can review well. It is also possible that you might not be doing the things that you recommend....I know that I have this problem on occasions. I mean look at the self review I posted.....some terrible play in there that I would totally berate if someone else did it.

gl and c u next review session

ozi

ps Smurfs idea is a good one. He is doing a good job of bringing out the lag in many of us here on the forums. nh sir.

[OrigamiSensei]

Heh. Smurph's idea IS a good one. Maybe I can get in touch with my inner LAG.

And Ozi, bring on the badass review. I have actually done the "calculate what the mistakes have cost me" thing any number of times. It usually winds up being somewhere between 10 and 25 percent of my losses.

[Jaran]

Hey Orgami,
I have a couple of things that might address this issue from your session review (which I am diligently working on to the exclusion of eating and sleeping), but I want to go over them with you in the review and on specific hands.

-Jaran

[davelin]

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a) I am winning less than my share of the pots which would be 10% in a full ring game

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This is a common logical mistake. In a 10-handed game, you won't win 10% of hands.

[Aaron W.]

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I doubt you'd find anything seriously out of line with my stats. Pretty much running the SSHE tight chart with adjustments for reads. 16/9/2.25, 29%WTSD, 53%W$SD. Pre-flop play is pretty solid. My stealing is good, blind defense not quite so good but I try and stay out of trouble.

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I'm curious what makes you think "Pre-flop play is pretty solid". How do you mean solid? What are your stats for "Chance to steal and raised/folded/called" under the filters?

[OrigamiSensei]

Solid simply means that relative to my stakes and newbie status I'm not doing a lot of super stupid things to cost myself money pre-flop. My stats are reasonable - can 16/9 be that far out of line? I rarely get bitched at in reviews except for missing an occasional situation or playing occasional hands from the loose chart in EP. I'm not doing a lot of cold-calling, I'm playing off a decent chart, etc. One thing that does worry me about my pre-flop play is that there's not enough variation in VPIP from early to late position. My button VPIP is just over 14% and that sucks. I think it was over 20 at .05/.10. Yet when I review my hands (and I review every single hand I play) I'm not seeing how to increase it without getting myself into a lot of marginal post-flop situations I'm not ready for.

I steal roughly 30% of the time, a number that's a little lower than I'd like it to be. However, I've been trying to table select better so I'm hitting more situations where steals won't be all that successful. Also I've been doing a little more stealing from MP2/MP3 and that's not accounted for in the stats.

Not sure what you're looking for on the chance to steal thing. Chance to steal and raised is definitely profitable to the tune of 23BB/100 (maybe you're thinking it's a little TOO "profitable" in BB/100 terms from not enough stealing?). Chance to steal and call is positive but basically break even, chance to steal and folded is a small loss from folding dreck in the small blind.

Jaran, thanks - unload on me, bud, since I need it.

I apologize to all for this turning into a whine-fest on my part but I gotta tell you right now my confidence is completely shattered. I thought I'd hit this wall at 2/4 or 3/6 or 5/10, not .25/.50.

[Shillx]

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a) I am winning less than my share of the pots which would be 10% in a full ring game

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This is a common logical mistake. In a 10-handed game, you won't win 10% of hands.

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Yeah the more pots you win the worse off you are (or you are just hot). I don't know what the best possible win% is in a 10-handed game but if I had to guess I'd say something like 7.5%.

I had a sample of 43k hands at 5/10 (two years ago) where I won just 5.8% of the time yet still booked a small profit. IMO this stat is an okay indicator of how well you are running (obviously w/ a correlation to VPIP). Other then that I wouldn't really read much into it.