A different sort of stats question

OrigamiSensei · #1 09-29-2006, 01:58 AM

I have been looking at my hand win rates at .25/.50, a level I am simply getting killed at right now. I am winning 8.66 percent of my hands and while that doesn't seem so horrible it turns out that a full 30% of the hands I am winning I am winning without seeing a flop. I get the feeling that IS a problem. The way I interpret that stat is:

a) I am winning less than my share of the pots which would be 10% in a full ring game
b) I am winning small pots and losing big ones, a sure recipe for bleeding money

I'm guessing my stealing and raising on tight tables is fine but I obviously have no flippin' clue how to play when the pots get big, an issue that I notice non-statistically when I see big hands repeatedly get away from me. Or am I making a mountain out of a molehill?

MrWookie · #2 09-29-2006, 02:09 AM

We can't tell you anything w/o your sample size. Variance could well be the answer.

OrigamiSensei · #3 09-29-2006, 02:29 AM

I know it's way too small right now - a little over 5000 hands but honestly I don't think I need 10 or 20 or 30 or 50k hands to know something is wrong with my game. Unfortunately despite studying, reading, posting and doing session reviews I can't figure out what is screwed. All I know is I sit down and I bleed, but when I beg for beraducation during session reviews I'm not getting much. I know I have a leak of calling down too much when I've been sucked out on yet again but all that would do is slow the bleeding a little. That, and fixing it would encourage even more weak-tightness than I currently suffer from. It wouldn't turn me into a winner. When I do manage to grind out a winning session it's generally 5 BBs or less. When I lose it's often 10BBs or more. That would indicate severe tiltiness but I always send out my worst sessions for review and nobody ever says "hey Origami, you're tilting".

I know it's a real thing statistically but I think continually claiming variance is how poker players lie to themselves. The red numbers tell me I suck. I'm sick of it and I want to fix it. I'm just at a complete loss right now and in the middle of a -30BB session, which really isn't helping.

Ampelmann · #4 09-29-2006, 02:35 AM

[ QUOTE ]
a) I am winning less than my share of the pots which would be 10% in a full ring game

[/ QUOTE ]
If we are playing tight preflop and fold after the flop when we have only litte chance of winning, aren't we supposed to win less than our fair share of pots? Someone who playes every hand and sees the river no matter what should clearly win a lot more pots than we do.

Not long ago I had a streak of considerably more than 5k hands in which I won only small pots and lost all the big ones. Happens sometimes. Go on with the session reviews, it's hard to say something without looking at specifig hands.

Point Blank · #5 09-29-2006, 02:42 AM

are you still playing by the book?

engineer_mba · #6 09-29-2006, 02:51 AM

Hi OrigamiSensei,

First, don't worry about not winning 10% of the hands. If you are playing tight, you will often fold a potentially winning hand pre-flop. (ie 27o on a board that of 22277). At the 0.25/0.5 level, I remember some people would just about play any two cards and draw to anything. That strategy should lead to them winning more than 10% of the hands, but in the long term they will be hemoraging money since they lose chip so frequently.

Second, the thing that concerns me is that you win such a big percentage without seeing the flop. This obviously means you are not getting a lot of chips beyond the standard blinds.

Third, I grinded out several hundred bb at this level and your experience isn't what I remember. I rarely won any hands preflop because there was always some one willing to throw in a quarter to see the flop. You should definitely look for this in your table selection. A few overly loose players will do a world of good for your bankroll.

One last thing, session reviews are a big help. But you may also want to send some average and winning sessions as well. I have found some several big leaks on days where I was winning, and just got lucky a few times.

Just my two cents,

Leo

ps. Feel free to PM me. I have some time this weekend, and if you send me a session I will review it and give you some of my thoughts. But just remember, I am still learning myself.

Xhad · #7 09-29-2006, 02:53 AM

[ QUOTE ]

I know it's way too small right now - a little over 5000 hands but honestly I don't think I need 10 or 20 or 30 or 50k hands to know something is wrong with my game.

[/ QUOTE ]

The phenomenon you're describing can easily happen over that many hands by chance. It's called "running bad".

OrigamiSensei · #8 09-29-2006, 02:53 AM

I get that. It's really item b) that worries me. For instance, although the losses are bigger than usual tonight the profile is all too familiar. I have played 182 hands and won or split 13. Okay, that's about 7% of the hands and doesn't seem too bad. However, when you look at the winnings that's where the issue becomes obvious. I won one 12BB hand which netted me about 8BBs. I did not net more than 3BBs in any other hand. Now, yeah, I get it - it's just one session and who cares? But what I'm telling you is that this is absolutely 100% normal for my game and that simply has to be a problem.

Ah, screw it, who am I kidding here? I completely suck and it's time to move back to .05/.10. How pathetic is it when I can't even beat .25/.50?

Aaron W. · #9 09-29-2006, 02:58 AM

[ QUOTE ]
it turns out that a full 30% of the hands I am winning I am winning without seeing a flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

When I see that, my reflex is to think your VPIP is between 12 and 16.

Xhad · #10 09-29-2006, 03:03 AM

That part can also be an accident. It's really infuriating when half the time you get AA you get five callers and it gets cracked, and then the other half you steal the blinds, except that one time some lunatic capped you with A9o preflop and the flop came 99x. I'm not saying it automatically is variance but it is easily possible.