NL25 - Good call down or spew?

[greggg230]

lol math. it's late.

I'm just getting back into playing NLHE full-time, but from what I recall--and from my experience over the past day and a half--people here like never give up on bluffs if you just call them down.

[whyherro]

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Prolly Spew - think about his calling range preflop. The hands you are hoping for, basically AT or A9 type hands, never reraise this flop. You raised preflop, they are probably worried about their kicker. This is at a minimum 2 pair and more likely a set IMO as low PP's make up a lot of his range here.

I will say though, once you get to the river, the shove looks pretty bluffy.

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BTW, you really don't think Ax hands raise this flop?

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I mean I wouldn't rule it out, as occasionally you run into weak ex-tourny players at this level who would raise a weak ace on this flop.

This is an incredibly dry board, raising a weak ace here is pretty terrible because given relative preflop ranges you are only getting called by better.

Its kind of like someone who thinks "Hey, I have an ace with a 9 kicker, I am going to raise to see where I am at" - you don't raise to find out where you are at, you raise because you want more value out of your hand, and in this situation there is a reasonable likelihood that you have the worst hand.

Hands that might raise this board: sets, two pair (makes sense since Axs (where x is low) is a reasonable % of his preflop calling range), or a flush draw looking to get tricky. Raising a flush draw here is a reasonably tricky semi-bluff since it splits your range b/w monster and draw.

Nevertheless, you don't have much equity against this range, even against a flush draw you aren't a big enough favorite to compensate for the times where you are effectively drawing dead.

[Numfar]

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fold the flop??? thats like burning money. You have to atleast see the turn and see what he does, I agree with OP that villain could be c/r flush draw, but you just don't fold top pair and medium kicker on that board.

[/ QUOTE ]You can't call because he might be doing it with a FD - you call because you think we are still ahead of his range. What else do we beat that he check raises the flop with? We are hoping that he's doing it with a medium A or its a pure bluff and I think that's unlikely without reads. And don't forget that we haven't exactly got a FD crushed here.

Having said that, I'd probably call about half the time I think - with better reads it could be a lot more or less often.

[vixticator]

No "real" reads but any way he's holding some hand with a 3 in it here? A3, 23, 34, 35? All of those hands got there on the turn. I probably wouldn't put many of those in any range readless. Something to think about against a loose player. If you call turn I don't think you can fold river unless it's a club.

[kroeliewoelie]

I definitely fold turn, might even fold flop against unknown. You have just been taken to valuetown in my opinion. The only thing you beat is AT-A6 or KcQc, which I find very, very unlikely. This line is just way too strong for those hands. I think TPMK is just not good enough to find out if villain likes to bluff for stacks. I want to get stats and reads first.