Overcards hand from review session

[OrigamiSensei]

I should include my reads here:

SB: Fishy stats, bad player, no clue how to handle a massive hand

BB: sLP-P stats, nothing outstanding to note

UTG+1: 38/8 LA-P stats

UTG+2: Fishy stats, otherwise nothing of note

MP3: Fishy, but watch out when he wakes up

CO: 50/6, has a habit of going off at inopportune times with air, his aggression gets greater with every street

Looking at the players in the hand it is fairly unlikely I'll get check-raised except if CO does one of his patented LAGtard moves but there is essentially zero chance of getting to the river with only a small bet now. No more than one or two will fold now (only the ones I don't want to fold) and one of them will bet the turn with almost 100% certainty. Also because their pre-flop standards are so low SOMEBODY hit that flop - I'm behind here.

We only have three solid outs to the gutshot (minus the diamond) and the following to improve the hand for drawing: any diamond, any king, queen or jack. So granted, roughly 21 turn cards do something to improve my chances of winning the hand but it's very speculative. Top pair bad kicker is unlikely to win here and if a person in early position bets I have a good chance to peel the river with proper drawing odds assuming lots of people call.

LATE EDIT: And forgot to mention the CO regularly takes overs to the river and the other fish have been known to occasionally as well if it's not too expensive.

[Hielko]

[ QUOTE ]
No more than one or two will fold now (only the ones I don't want to fold) and one of them will bet the turn with almost 100% certainty. Also because their pre-flop standards are so low SOMEBODY hit that flop - I'm behind here.

[/ QUOTE ]
Will they also bet the turn when you bet the flop? How often?

I think our equity in this hand is looking ok. versus a lot of loose limpers. When I throw some wide handranges in pokerstove i get the following result:

797,607 games 25.187 secs 31,667 games/sec

Board: 4h 8d Td
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 16.7389 % 15.42% 01.32% { QdJc }
Hand 2: 12.8438 % 12.14% 00.70% { 22+, A2s+, K2s+, Q2s+, J2s+, T2s+, 94s+, 84s+, 74s+, 64s+, 54s, A2o+, K2o+, Q4o+, J6o+, T6o+, 97o+, 86o+, 76o }
Hand 3: 12.8349 % 12.12% 00.71% { 22+, A2s+, K2s+, Q2s+, J2s+, T2s+, 94s+, 84s+, 74s+, 64s+, 54s, A2o+, K2o+, Q4o+, J6o+, T6o+, 97o+, 86o+, 76o }
Hand 4: 15.1165 % 14.17% 00.95% { 55+, A2s+, K5s+, Q7s+, J8s+, T8s+, 98s, A7o+, A5o, K9o+, Q9o+, J9o+, T9o }
Hand 5: 14.8761 % 14.02% 00.86% { 44+, A2s+, K2s+, Q4s+, J7s+, T7s+, 97s+, 87s, A3o+, K7o+, Q8o+, J8o+, T8o+ }
Hand 6: 13.3722 % 12.59% 00.78% { 33+, A2s+, K2s+, Q2s+, J4s+, T5s+, 96s+, 86s+, 75s+, 65s, A2o+, K4o+, Q7o+, J7o+, T7o+, 98o }
Hand 7: 14.2177 % 13.32% 00.90% { 55+, A2s+, K3s+, Q5s+, J7s+, T7s+, 97s+, 87s, A4o+, K7o+, Q9o+, J9o+, T9o }

[MrWookie]

So our equity is just barely good enough for betting to be +EV if they all call with exactly the same ranges as you put them on now. Big whoop. Once some call and some fold, the worst portions of their ranges drop out, our equity goes down, and our "fair share" equity goes up. Our edge dies a pointless death. Yeeehaw. More like Heeeehaw.

[tiltaholic]

[ QUOTE ]
So our equity is just barely good enough for betting to be +EV if they all call with exactly the same ranges as you put them on now. Big whoop. Once some call and some fold, the worst portions of their ranges drop out, our equity goes down, and our "fair share" equity goes up. Our edge dies a pointless death. Yeeehaw. More like Heeeehaw.

[/ QUOTE ]

yeah. i agree with this and should clarify that i would also rather check this flop than bet it. i just don't think that betting the fop is a crime against humanity if we're facing a bunch of mullets.

[Buzz-cp]

[ QUOTE ]
Our edge dies a pointless death.

[/ QUOTE ]

haha this is funny and true, but what about seeing the river for free (~), which some would have thought impossible

[Hielko]

[ QUOTE ]
So our equity is just barely good enough for betting to be +EV if they all call with exactly the same ranges as you put them on now. Big whoop. Once some call and some fold, the worst portions of their ranges drop out, our equity goes down, and our "fair share" equity goes up. Our edge dies a pointless death. Yeeehaw. More like Heeeehaw.

[/ QUOTE ]
I'm not a fan of a bet (see my first reply :P), but i'm trying to show it can't be very bad to bet even when you won't get a freecard most of the time. Also note that my pokerstove range includes everything from 78s to AA (I'm lazy, so I just select top 50% of hands or something like that...).

I don't think we have a real value edge here when we bet, but we are probably only losing a very very very small partial bet. If this bet will buy us a freecard that could win us the pot + give us some large bets on the river I think it is close between checking and betting.

[OrigamiSensei]

The equity in the hand IS ok as far as it goes. I recognize that there are an awful lot of cards in the deck that can hit the turn and improve my chances of winning. The reasons I don't care to bet:
1) My equity advantage, if I even have one, is very small
2) I'm taking the chance of getting check-raised. The maniac in CO to my right could very well raise or even 3-bet just to screw with everyone. This is not a happy result.
3) In general I'm not folding the fish for a single bet on the flop so I can't buy any outs.
4) At these levels you might be able to buy a free card if you're a raiser but a simple bet from the button on the flop won't scare any of these level 1 thinkers from simply playing their hand on the turn without regard for what I did on the last street. You will see someone else bet the turn 70-90% of the time even if I am the one who bet the flop - again, especially with the maniac CO.
5) I'm basically weak-tight at heart and with a hand like this I'm happily taking my free card now and re-evaluating for the turn.

One leak I think I have in my game is that I have been pushing marginal siutations like this too hard with the fish and getting killed for it. My BB/100 winrate has decreased by over 4 in the last few weeks and while it could just be that wench variance I'm looking straight at me first.

[writser]

In hindsight I have to agree with the general consensus in this thread, checking to take a freecard directly would be a better option. If any scarecard hits the turn (an ace, a king, a third diamond), most of the fish would donk anyway, so getting the freecard doesn't always work. Add to that the possibility of getting C/R-ed and the small equity I have. Yes, I should probably have checked. Thanks for the insights.

ps: OS, you've dropped 4BB / 100? That's insane, unless you've played very little (10.000-) hands. I would say it's just variance, you seem to play quite good.

[OrigamiSensei]

It's a small sample at this level (~5k hands) but I'm playing like crap. If you reviewed the session I just finished going over you wouldn't think much of my playing ability.