Turning a -EV draw into a +EV lead (micro theory)

[Oblivious]

I was thinking about a principle that I stumbled across a few years ago in my initial micro days. I dont recall ever reading about this principle in any books, but I'd be surprised if it isnt out there somewhere. For some of you this will be old news, but for others it might help your play out of position.

So we can most easily understand this principle, I'll set a very small stage: a 9 handed micro limit holdem game where hero is in the big blind. Often times in this sort of situation, some unfamiliar player from early or middle position will open limp (this occurs less frequently in tougher games). Also, imagine that all other players after the limper fold to you in the BB and you check. You are now heads up, out of position, with a preflop limper and a 2.5SB pot.

Say you have a hand like J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] and the flop is Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. Whats your line?

1) check/call
2) check/fold
3) lead
4) check/raise

In this example lets assume that your opponent will always (correctly) bet when checked to, and the two of you are otherwise unfamiliar with each other.

Option 1 (check/call) is obviously wrong, since we will be getting 3.5:1 on an inside straight draw where we need 10.5:1 to call. Even if we count a Jack as a partial out we're not getting the proper odds to call. So we have a -EV draw.

Option 2 (check/fold) at 0 EV is a better option than the -EV option 1, but we're getting bluffed or giving up a pot that could be ours far too often. Our opponent will bet with a lot of hands that we beat currently or have odds to draw against. 56o, A3s, and 44 are examples.

Option 3 (lead) I claim is better than option 2. In the cases that we are ahead or actually have +EV draw we are spending the same amount of money as option 2, but we are adding fold equity to the value of option 2. Now our opponent folds all of his bluffs (which we cant profitably call) and might even fold hands like A3s and 44 which have us beat.

Option 4 (check/raise) is worse than option 3 for two reasons. First, it offers our opponent better odds to call, thus reducing our fold equity. Second, it's easier to fold after leading than it is to fold to our opponent's 3bet because of the increased pot size.

So... thats how to turn a -EV draw into a +EV lead. Im not sure if I've chosen the best example or circumstance to illustrate this principle, but hopefully the micro gurus can fine tune the idea. Also, some might have a problem with my proof, because I say the draw is -EV, when it might be slightly +EV depending on our opponents hand. I cant really think of an elegant way to explain this problem, but since our J8 isnt really a bluff catcher, we have to consider our hand to be a straight draw when we check/call, when it might be stronger. Obviously calling all the way down to see if he really has 56 is horrible. So any critiques or suggestions to make this explanation better are much appreciated.

If youre inspired, let me know cuz my ego needs a boost... naturally.