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#1
11-09-2007, 01:45 PM
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$114 The hand that made me move to cashaments.
UTG isn't very good, but has a PXF or CashmanBrian avatar. I have his preflop stats and they are not standard tag, but not laggy.
9 handed 10/20 UTG raises t80, I call UTG+1 with T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], BTN overcalls. Flop is 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] He bets 160, I call, BTN folds. Turn is K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Check, check. River is a 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] He bet 300, I shove. 
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#3
11-09-2007, 02:11 PM
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Re: $114 The hand that made me move to cashaments.
well, c-betting into two opponents so JJ+ is pretyy likely.
turn check - AA would fire again, so take that out. river - value/block bet, so as manchild said, try to get QQ/JJ to fold, and most would fold, especially those with PFX avatars that have are decent. i could see someone playing AK/99/88 in a similar manner although a lot of players do not c-bet missed AK flops. i'm guessing this is pretty close to neutral EV.
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#4
11-09-2007, 02:22 PM
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Re: $114 The hand that made me move to cashaments.
Maybe he went for a c/r with AK on the turn, so Im not ruling it out. I think we get another bet from 99/88.
AK,QQ,JJ.
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#5
11-09-2007, 03:47 PM
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Re: $114 The hand that made me move to cashaments.
He has JJ-KK, probably KK. Seriously doubt he's folding river. Small possibility of AK/99/88.
But then again your Post subject puts him on 33.
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#6
11-09-2007, 04:35 PM
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Re: $114 The hand that made me move to cashaments.
Suzzer,
If he has a range of JJ-KK and he only calls river with KK river shove is +EV since he will fold 80% of the time. I think his turn check percentage with JJ-QQ is much higher than his turn check percentage with AK/99/88. I'm confused how you think I think he has 44? What is the worst hand I value shove here? AK? AA? 33? Edit: Also this thread has a lot of views, but very few replies. Commenting on difficult hands and being wrong is a lot better for your game than 904390423 posting LOLZ snap call or LOLZ can you believe this guy thinks he should play for first.
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#7
11-09-2007, 04:42 PM
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Re: $114 The hand that made me move to cashaments.
I don't think folding out QQ/JJ here is worth the risk of going broke when he does have AA/AK/99/88.
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#8
11-09-2007, 04:46 PM
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Re: $114 The hand that made me move to cashaments.
It might be ok in a vacuum (I think it's close at best), but I suspect if you played with the same people very often and made this play all the time, it'd become quite -EV.
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#10
11-09-2007, 06:11 PM
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Re: $114 The hand that made me move to cashaments.
I'm not shoving the river here. I would need to get him fold more than half of the time (he is not calling with anything that we beat). It sure looks like villain has QQ/JJ and he is folding those to a river shove most of the time. But his range includes a lot of other hands too (sometimes some very strangely played hands like KQo/33 ... too) + he is calling with QQ/JJ here sometimes too.
But the number one reason for not shoving here is that i like to avoid early on situations that are highly speculative to be +EV.
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