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  #21  
Old 11-03-2007, 02:26 PM
CASINOCASINO CASINOCASINO is offline
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Default Re: 25/50NL HU >300BB Deep Tough River Spot

i call
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  #22  
Old 11-03-2007, 02:48 PM
tcorbin16 tcorbin16 is offline
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Default Re: 25/50NL HU >300BB Deep Tough River Spot

with your image... i kinda like a call here, but like everyone else said you can be behind here a certain % of the time (by various hands obv) but i also think you can be ahead to... given how you play. i think villian is prob capable of turning hands into a bluff.
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  #23  
Old 11-04-2007, 10:39 PM
Dorothy Mantooth Dorothy Mantooth is offline
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Default Re: 25/50NL HU >300BB Deep Tough River Spot

Call. This is the bluff he's setting you up for.
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  #24  
Old 11-04-2007, 11:34 PM
gordo16 gordo16 is offline
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Default Re: 25/50NL HU >300BB Deep Tough River Spot

I know you said don't comment on other streets, but your flop/turn play really sets you up for this tough spot. I think 3betting the flop here and not continue-betting the turn is terrible. Your flop 3bet, turn check, and river bet when the A hits makes it look like you could just be value betting a big A here. Although your previous history with villain river c/raises would dictate a pretty much insta-fold, I would realllly have to think about it here, as he could be doing it 78 etc or even a 6 for value given how much your hand looks like it could be a rivered A. All that being said though, I still probably fold the river.
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  #25  
Old 11-04-2007, 11:53 PM
TxRedMan TxRedMan is offline
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Default Re: 25/50NL HU >300BB Deep Tough River Spot

this seems like a sort of insane spot for him to try a river crai bluff b/c your line looks pretty strong. i cant see calling with the way this hand went down, so i suppose i fold in a vacume but i'd be inclined to reconsider that if i knew the history between you two better, but wow, this would be a sick spot for a river crai bluff.

also, i like the flop re-raise but feel like you missed a bet on the turn, i.e., i'd like to bet the turn and then would most likely check behind on the river, but as played i think not betting this river would be a huge huge leak, and those posters who say otherwise are being results oriented after seeing the river crai and not considering all the times we get paid off by worse, which, is fairly often with a board like this.



-tex


edit: i'd like to see the HH's for the previous times he's crai the river and what his hands were strength wise, i'm still in the fold camp, but i'd like to see if he would ever crai this river w/ 8-high flush etc.
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  #26  
Old 11-05-2007, 05:57 AM
The_Earner The_Earner is offline
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Default Re: 25/50NL HU >300BB Deep Tough River Spot

[ QUOTE ]

To the guy who said he doesn't think Villian would check a hand that beats us twice, this is way, way, off. If villain has a full house here, I expect him to take this exact line a decent % of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think the really tricky part here is to decide how wide his C/R value range is.
I'm 100% with you that villain would check a full house 2 times to try to C/R you, witch he also would have done if he was setting you up for a big bluff on the river or if he had a hand with SD value if you checked the river but not if you bet. Seems somewhat std...
But how would he play a flush (or a st8)?
On this board given these stack sizes I would probably value bet the flush (and the st8)on the river, but C/R a boat (and maybe the nut flush), if I was Villain. Witch leads us to the old nuts or nothing argument. But if he is capable of doing this with a higher flush (maybe trips/st8, but it's seems like spew, but how knows) it get's much more tricky.

I would probably fold this anyway, I think when he tanks before making the river C/R, it tells us that he has a really big hand, but not the nuts. Most people will not make big bluffs when they tanked this long, because they fell that it looks suspicious (but this can obviously be wrong).
If you had the nut flush it would have been harder to b/f this if he's capable of C/R a wide range, but with a T-high I probably fold.

Given your history with this guy I hope you had a plan what to do if he C/R you after you bet. Seems pretty dumb to bet otherwise [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]
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  #27  
Old 11-05-2007, 07:37 AM
TheWorstPlayer TheWorstPlayer is offline
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Default Re: 25/50NL HU >300BB Deep Tough River Spot

Unless you're very good and he knows that, he probably never expects you to call this c/r. Not saying that you should definitely call it, just because of that, but just wanted to point out that most people will rarely call a c/r on the river after they have checked the turn back (which fairly well screams pot control).
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  #28  
Old 11-05-2007, 09:19 AM
FiSheYe FiSheYe is offline
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Default Re: 25/50NL HU >300BB Deep Tough River Spot

Well let's try to solve this with logic:
-You perceive him as a good player
-he might be bluffing here, definately not impressed by big number and/or deepish stacksizes
-he is solid -> wouldn't turn most hands with showdownvalue into bluffs for no apparent reasons and doesn't start weird plays on various streets.

Would he 3bet pf with hands such as 55-99 ? IP 100% this deep I guess but he is OOP here, so would he just call 55 or 66 ?
If he is solid deepish I would expect him to 3bet 99-55 and even hands such as 65s (96s).
After the given flop action and the huge river c/r I think it's fair to assume that his range is strongly polarised towards boat/bluff.
A flush doesn't make much sense with the given action, why would he overplay it that strongly, no hands that he has beat will call here all too often but most boats cannot fold in that spot..
I think it's fair to conclude he doesn't have a flush here all that often, neither a bare 6.
A straight with 78 is very unrealistically as well, it's quite bad to call the flop this deepish OOP if he could just jam and get it in with good equity and lots of dead monies.
Guess the key to this hand is how balanced his PF play is and if you ever saw him mixing it up pf this deepish.
If he is somewhat solid and straightforward pf then the chance of him showing up with AA is zero, 99, 66 and even 55 aren't really within that range. The way the hand played out there is a good chance this could be 56s but he only called pf while most normal regs would raise there.
Imho 96s seems to be the most likely holding which leaves us with a wide wide range of bluffs and only 1 real boat that he should have here.
He could be worried that his Twopair isn't good anymore on the flop and if he 4bets you, he would fold out worse hands and only get action by better ones (except for combodraws). So he calls the flop with the intention to see what the turn brings, then tries to c/r the turn, fails and with the given board gives it another try on the river.
My feeling is that he either has a boat with 2pair (wish is doubtful) or nothing /something realising he is beat, turning into a bluff.
The better he is and the more you would give him credit in that spot and fold flushs out, the more you should consider calling a certain amount of the time.
I really hate this spot because I can only estimate how he plays PF with these hands.
If you know his ranges and it doesn't make much sense I would call, otherwise just let it go and wait for a better spot /w more reads.
I like this hand cuz the board only leaves very few combinations and none of them really makes much sense imho. Definately need a good read here...
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  #29  
Old 11-05-2007, 09:33 AM
mc123 mc123 is offline
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Default Re: 25/50NL HU >300BB Deep Tough River Spot

interesting hand, been too lazy to post in forums but give my 2 cents.

from the villain's perspective your line on the flop screams a huge hand or a huge draw.

your line on the turn suggest you've either made your hand but want to control the pot size this deep or that was the worst card for your made hand.

his thoughts on the river is, well if he has either a or b (straight or flush) he will call if I bet since his hand is too strong to fold but not strong enough to raise this deep, but he will also bet 110% of the time for value since his hand is too strong to check behind with for all the times he will get value from lesser hands.

so 100% this is a fold even if he was bluffing give props to the villain for makin such a sick bluff and find someone else to play unless you like flipping coins


edit: seems like 56 95% of the time, and a bluff 5% of the time.
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  #30  
Old 11-05-2007, 11:21 AM
gman06 gman06 is offline
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Default Re: 25/50NL HU >300BB Deep Tough River Spot

[ QUOTE ]
Well let's try to solve this with logic:
-You perceive him as a good player
-he might be bluffing here, definately not impressed by big number and/or deepish stacksizes
-he is solid -> wouldn't turn most hands with showdownvalue into bluffs for no apparent reasons and doesn't start weird plays on various streets.

Would he 3bet pf with hands such as 55-99 ? IP 100% this deep I guess but he is OOP here, so would he just call 55 or 66 ?
If he is solid deepish I would expect him to 3bet 99-55 and even hands such as 65s (96s).
After the given flop action and the huge river c/r I think it's fair to assume that his range is strongly polarised towards boat/bluff.
A flush doesn't make much sense with the given action, why would he overplay it that strongly, no hands that he has beat will call here all too often but most boats cannot fold in that spot..
I think it's fair to conclude he doesn't have a flush here all that often, neither a bare 6.
A straight with 78 is very unrealistically as well, it's quite bad to call the flop this deepish OOP if he could just jam and get it in with good equity and lots of dead monies.
Guess the key to this hand is how balanced his PF play is and if you ever saw him mixing it up pf this deepish.
If he is somewhat solid and straightforward pf then the chance of him showing up with AA is zero, 99, 66 and even 55 aren't really within that range. The way the hand played out there is a good chance this could be 56s but he only called pf while most normal regs would raise there.
Imho 96s seems to be the most likely holding which leaves us with a wide wide range of bluffs and only 1 real boat that he should have here.
He could be worried that his Twopair isn't good anymore on the flop and if he 4bets you, he would fold out worse hands and only get action by better ones (except for combodraws). So he calls the flop with the intention to see what the turn brings, then tries to c/r the turn, fails and with the given board gives it another try on the river.
My feeling is that he either has a boat with 2pair (wish is doubtful) or nothing /something realising he is beat, turning into a bluff.
The better he is and the more you would give him credit in that spot and fold flushs out, the more you should consider calling a certain amount of the time.
I really hate this spot because I can only estimate how he plays PF with these hands.
If you know his ranges and it doesn't make much sense I would call, otherwise just let it go and wait for a better spot /w more reads.
I like this hand cuz the board only leaves very few combinations and none of them really makes much sense imho. Definately need a good read here...

[/ QUOTE ]

You make a lot of unwarranted assumptions in this post.

The only other thing I think is worth mentioning is that he is almost never making the river c/r w/ a hand weaker than mine (maybe 10% of the time) if it is indeed for value, so polarizing his range here is fine.
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