Puke. 1/2PLO8 HU.

[Shabamabam]

Party Poker
Pot Limit Omaha Ring game
Blinds: $1/$2
2 players
Converter

Pre-flop: (2 players) Hero is BB with K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
<font color="#cc0000">SB raises to $4</font>, Hero calls.

Flop: J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ($8, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">SB bets $6</font>, Hero calls.

Turn: T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ($20, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">SB bets $19</font>, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $76</font>, SB calls.

River: 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ($172, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">SB is all-in $107.3</font>, Hero pukes and ???

[rando]

Wow... how can you fold this HU, even though it is a potential doomsday river? The percentage play, independent of reads, is probably to call expecting to get half just over half the time, a scoop once in a blue moon only if he is counterfeited, and scooped maybe 30% of the time. If you didn't have so much in there it would be more likely you could fold. After mopping up the puke, I hate myself for calling and pray he has a straight, and have realistic hope he has something like KQwl and no Kc suited for a split. The chances he has both Awwx uncounterfeited and the nut flush ... or made low and second flush are just low enough that your previous investment lobbies successfully for a crying call. If I had to guess his hand, it's A2c6cJ.

[Assani Fisher]

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Party Poker


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I'm jealous

[thehempy]

so many hands you half with. With this much in the pot I have to snap call here.

[Buzz]

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Hero pukes and ???

[/ QUOTE ]Shabamabam – That’s the way I’d feel about it.

I think Villain has the Broadway plus two or three clubs. If so, Villain’s hand falls into one of the six following categories. (We’ll stipulate that Xc and Yc cannot be Ac, Kc, Qc, Jc, 8c, 7c, 5c)

AcKcQnXc
AcKcQnXn
AcKnQnXc
KcQnXcYc
KcQnXcYn
KnQnXcYc

Villain beats you with any hand in the first five categories, but loses if holding a hand in the sixth category.

AcKcQnXc...... 1*1*3*6 = 18 ways
AcKcQnXn...... 1*1*3*32+1*1*3*2/2 = 99 ways
AcKnQnXc...... 1*2*3*6 = 36 ways
KcQnXcYc...... 1*3*6*5/2 = 45 ways
KcQnXcYn...... 1*3*6*32+1*3*6*2/2 = 594 ways
KnQnXcYc...... 2*3*6*5/2 = 90 ways.

Thus if I am correct in the read (Broadway plus two or three clubs), Villain beats you 18+99+36+45+594 = 792 ways, while you only beat Villain 90 ways. In that case, you’re behind by a factor of 792/90 = 8.8. I’d expect you to lose almost nine times as often as you will win.

Meanwhile you’re getting great pot odds (~279 to ~107, or almost three to one). And there is a chance Villain simply puts you on a Broadway without clubs and wants to knock you off a tying hand. Or it’s even possible Villain is throwing a pure bluff at you.

So it’s a very tough decision. It’s terrible (in my humble opinion) for your table image if you fold here to the all-in raise on the river. I don’t know. You’re a good player. Maybe you can somehow turn the image around and use it in your favor. (I could not, or at least doing so would make the game unbearable for me). However, I think you have a loser, and I think it’s greater than three to one that you have a loser.

When I started calculating, I thought maybe you’d have favorable odds to call – but you don’t. You only can beat a bluff. If I was never going to play against any of these guys again, I’d fold here in a New York second and immediately quit the table. But I have the feeling you probably often play against some of these players (because that’s the way it is in my games).

Very tough decision. On the basis of this one hand and pot it’s a clear fold. But that is not all that is involved.

Buzz

[Kuso]

control pot-size on turn (includes calling or just raising less) if you can't stomach a big river bet when a scare card comes.

on the river, i think you call and chop more often than not while getting scooped more often than you scoop (not enough to justify a fold if you factor in strategic value).

hu plo8 is a variance nightmare compared to 6max or fr -- embrace the variance if you're going to play it.

[cjnst2]

[ QUOTE ]
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Hero pukes and ???

[/ QUOTE ]Shabamabam – That’s the way I’d feel about it.

I think Villain has the Broadway plus two or three clubs. If so, Villain’s hand falls into one of the six following categories. (We’ll stipulate that Xc and Yc cannot be Ac, Kc, Qc, Jc, 8c, 7c, 5c)

AcKcQnXc
AcKcQnXn
AcKnQnXc
KcQnXcYc
KcQnXcYn
KnQnXcYc

Villain beats you with any hand in the first five categories, but loses if holding a hand in the sixth category.

AcKcQnXc...... 1*1*3*6 = 18 ways
AcKcQnXn...... 1*1*3*32+1*1*3*2/2 = 99 ways
AcKnQnXc...... 1*2*3*6 = 36 ways
KcQnXcYc...... 1*3*6*5/2 = 45 ways
KcQnXcYn...... 1*3*6*32+1*3*6*2/2 = 594 ways
KnQnXcYc...... 2*3*6*5/2 = 90 ways.

Thus if I am correct in the read (Broadway plus two or three clubs), Villain beats you 18+99+36+45+594 = 792 ways, while you only beat Villain 90 ways. In that case, you’re behind by a factor of 792/90 = 8.8. I’d expect you to lose almost nine times as often as you will win.

Meanwhile you’re getting great pot odds (~279 to ~107, or almost three to one). And there is a chance Villain simply puts you on a Broadway without clubs and wants to knock you off a tying hand. Or it’s even possible Villain is throwing a pure bluff at you.

So it’s a very tough decision. It’s terrible (in my humble opinion) for your table image if you fold here to the all-in raise on the river. I don’t know. You’re a good player. Maybe you can somehow turn the image around and use it in your favor. (I could not, or at least doing so would make the game unbearable for me). However, I think you have a loser, and I think it’s greater than three to one that you have a loser.

When I started calculating, I thought maybe you’d have favorable odds to call – but you don’t. You only can beat a bluff. If I was never going to play against any of these guys again, I’d fold here in a New York second and immediately quit the table. But I have the feeling you probably often play against some of these players (because that’s the way it is in my games).

Very tough decision. On the basis of this one hand and pot it’s a clear fold. But that is not all that is involved.

Buzz

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Good insight but it seems to me like you are playing this like its Omaha and not PLO8. A low was made on the river here and you don't seem to factor that in.

[Buzz]

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it seems to me like you are playing this like its Omaha and not PLO8. A low was made on the river here and you don't seem to factor that in.

[/ QUOTE ]cjnst2 - You're right. Thanks for the correction.

The low factor makes it much more difficult for me to put Villain on cards.

I would feel even more nauseated than before I considered low. Because Hero has an emergency low, and because Villain could be raising with a Broadway plus a low, I'd lean towards calling. (I can understand why pot limit O-8 games evidently cannot sustain themselves in local casinos).

Buzz

[cero_z]

Snapcall he has the nuts one way, probably low with a mediocre hi hand.

[I dunno]

Call and hope he doesn't sit out after showing you the nuts.