$5.50, AK at bubble, 2 shortstacks

[Minos]

Button seems to be a little bit too tight considering his stack size. BB seems to be a solid player who has at least basic understanding of reasonable bubble play.

Easy call here?
While playing, I really considered folding this hand. I thought that BB would call very tight when i call, as he had to beat me and button. But I don't want to fold a strong hand here and watch BB doubling up, which would leave me in an very bad shape.
But SNGWizard tells me that this is a fold if BBs calling range is less than 55%. And I really can't imagine him calling this wide. Is this really a fold, is this a spot where ICM is not accurate or did I just misjudge BBs calling range? What should be a reasonable calling range for BB if I call?


Titan Poker 150.00/300.00, hand converted by the iPoker Converter at Talking-Poker

Button ($7970.00)
Hero ($770.00)
BB ($590.00)
UTG ($5670.00)

Preflop: Hero is in the SB with A K
1 fold, Button raises to 900.00, Hero?

[RexWoo]

[ QUOTE ]
But SNGWizard tells me that this is a fold if BBs calling range is less than 55%. And I really can't imagine him calling this wide.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well I don't know how your game are but even if BB is folding 1% here he sucks beyong imagination. He had less than 2BBs and one of them is now posted, giving him shipitholla odds to call with any 2.

For this reason fold > call

[Scotty_12]

This is a sick spot lol
I call here expecting most $5 + 0.5 donks to overcall in the BB with only 190 chips left, but I think it would be humerous if he mucked and you had to sweat it vs BTN. I highly doubt many players at that level are thinking "I have to beat both players"

If you fold and BB doubles to 1330 you are pretty screwed at 620. If you double + eliminate BB (or if BB just doesnt win that hand) you are guaranteed $, with the potential for a 2.1k stack and a chancethat your next doubleup will give you 4k and a better chance of $10 or even $15!

[CheeseMoney]

OP, Do you mean BBs overcalling range is 55%?

[Duerig]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
But SNGWizard tells me that this is a fold if BBs calling range is less than 55%. And I really can't imagine him calling this wide.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well I don't know how your game are but even if BB is folding 1% here he sucks beyong imagination.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think OP is referring to BB's overcalling range.

[hirschi]

i call this and try to win the tourney.
if my stack is healthy here i fold to his raise.

if its for my last 5 bucks and im out of money after it i would fold.

[Minos]

[ QUOTE ]
OP, Do you mean BBs overcalling range is 55%?

[/ QUOTE ]
Sorry for beeing unclear here. Yes, I meant his overcalling range. According to SNGWizard, it has to be at least 55% to make this a call.

[CheeseMoney]

If you call, a competent BB folds almost everything. Doubling up only helps you really almost guarantee third. Unless BB is a station, I think you fold and hate life.

[RexWoo]

Ok, I misunderstood.

BB overcalling range should probably be less than 5% here if he has a brain. If I'm BB and see you calling I'm so happy I time out, I think.