OT - settle a bet

[Back In Black]

obv dont pay

[AMT]

1) dont pay obv
2) dont play obv

[wiggs73]

don't pay.

play your regular stakes.

[MikeMcQ1]

[ QUOTE ]
1) dont pay obv
2) dont play obv

[/ QUOTE ]

[cha59]

1. I was going to say that unless we know the specifics of the bet, how can we possibly make this decision? Then I read Newt's post and it makes complete sense. Don't pay.

2. Move up when you are ready and rolled to move up. Taking shots at higher limits is cool when you have some extra money, especially if you know the game is soft. Otherwise, why piss money away?

[BHokie1]

If I understand this correctly I think you should not count the $721 towards being properly rolled to play 10/20, and let the bet continue until one of you reach 10/20 (or 10/25) when you are properly rolled.

[microbet]

Ok, I guess I won't pay, yet, and probably won't play. This all goes to show how personal BR rules are though. Busting out would not be a huge deal for me now and would likely be the best thing for me. Assuming some things go as I hope, I'm about to start a new business and I'm confident that I could be successful at it, but only if I really work my ass off at first. Playing poker might be a costly distraction especially with poker not being what it used to be.

Newt, the under 1% thing is crazy. I can't understand how you can't be more confident. You are a first born aren't you? Yes, poker has a way of putting people in their places, but why in the world would your place be where you are now? When I was playing the $22s I was about 50% sure that I could have beaten the $215s at that time. In hindsight, I'm about 90% certain that I could have beaten them at that time. If someone gave you a roll for 10/25 and had you play it, I'd bet on you even money. I don't think it would be a slam dunk, but I'd make the bet. If someone wants to give me 100 to 1 on it, then I'll back you for 10/25 in order to make that bet.

[raptor517]

this bet seems kinda arbitrary.. i mean i think there should be some kind of guideline.. like first to hit 50k in their account and 20k hands of 10-20 or something.. also i really hate reverse bets.. unless ur both huge tilt monkeys that take lots of shots.. mainly because it discourages you to play higher when you might be ready or see a good game because u fear ull have to shell out 500 extra bones. i dno, i wouldnt pay him because again, u were taking a shot. if you bought in for 400 and ran it up to 900 would you pay him and break even?

[bigt439]

im saying that he doesnt owe you... it sounds pretty clear that the motivation behind the bet was to get you guys to become 10/20 regs and that it was not one of those prop bets that gets worded trickily to ones benefit. i mean if the bet was just to play in a 10/20 game, one of you could have sat in a 10/20 game for 1 hand the second you made the bet... doesnt sound like that would have been in the spirit of the agreement. this is a dumb bet to begin with because theres definitely a ton of situations where i would not know whether someone wins the bet or not (eg guy with 20 bi roll thinks thats enough to be 10/20 reg, etc.), but i think in this situation it is pretty clear you shouldnt get paid.

also, i dont entirely get why youre trying to busto an account, or at least play for your case 4K with so much variance... youre responsible though, so i doubt youd be doing this if bustoing the account was really a big deal, but make sure you at least think about this rationally... busto threads make me sad. [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

edit: obv i didnt realize it was a reverse bet... dont pay still stands...

and your logic behind bustoing your account is ridiculous... you think it would be best because poker would distract you... ummmm cash it out then?

[microbet]

It was just a fun bet. No one was going to not play a higher level to avoid $500. There is logic to either quickly playing a level where the money matters or going busto and doing something else and while I've generally been nitty on BR, I'm not allergic to a high RoR if I think I am +EV.

I'm definitely going to be more aggressive than the terms of our bet, which were moving up at 100 buyins and taking 30% of profits out of the BR each month. Either that or I'll get too busy and not worry about it.

Next time I get there, I'll pay for sure. I'd pay this time if the dude had said I should. I just wanted to make sure he wasn't being penalized for being nice.

Most people don't gamble, but for gamblers, poker players are generally very nitty and I've been no exception in poker. But as far as other gambles go, like starting a business or buying income property, which I've done before, people generally have much much higher risk of ruin and often a much lower expected return.