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#31
10-04-2006, 05:39 PM
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Re: nl600 vs. 2er
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] I also wouldn't hate a fold on this flop, but I don't think much of a call. I mean, what are you going to do on the turn when he bets again (which most opponents are going to do)? He could still be on the one-big-club draw, but I can't see calling any more in the hopes that he is firing several bullets. So calling is, to me, just a way of donating, since I don't plan to call again on the turn. [/ QUOTE ] I have to say I really hate this line of thinking. It's certainly not something that sounds like it's maximising EV, unless it's accepting making enough poor decisions later on. [/ QUOTE ] I'm not sure I understand your reasoning. My EV evaluation on the flop is this: If I just call, I expect he will fire again, whether for value or with a bluff/semi-bluff, and I will fold. Therefore, just calling is -EV. If I were able to say, with some reliability, 'I think that if I call this, one the turn he will bet he good hands but just check his bluff/semi-bluff most of the time,' then I would call. In this case, I didn't think so. Note that I was prepared to say: If I raise here, I think he will reraise the strong hands, call the draws, and fold the total bluffs. If he has a draw and it misses on the turn, I believe he will check to me, at which point I can choose either to check behind or continue to pressure. The line of reasoning has nothing to do with making poor decisions later on. It is recognizing that, later on, I'm going to be forced to make another decision without enough information, and I know how I will choose unless something unexpected happens. What I expect to happen in the future is a big part of my present EV calculation. 
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#32
10-04-2006, 08:48 PM
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Re: nl600 vs. 2er
[ QUOTE ]
In the first case I had KQ and after you called the reraise preflop I was concerned about an overpair. Calling the turn was probably a mistake. [/ QUOTE ] Probably?
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#33
10-04-2006, 10:29 PM
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Re: nl600 vs. 2er
[ QUOTE ]
HATE the flop raise a lot. Whats accomplished? [/ QUOTE ]
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#34
10-05-2006, 05:23 AM
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Re: nl600 vs. 2er
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] I also wouldn't hate a fold on this flop, but I don't think much of a call. I mean, what are you going to do on the turn when he bets again (which most opponents are going to do)? He could still be on the one-big-club draw, but I can't see calling any more in the hopes that he is firing several bullets. So calling is, to me, just a way of donating, since I don't plan to call again on the turn. [/ QUOTE ] I have to say I really hate this line of thinking. It's certainly not something that sounds like it's maximising EV, unless it's accepting making enough poor decisions later on. [/ QUOTE ] I'm not sure I understand your reasoning. My EV evaluation on the flop is this: If I just call, I expect he will fire again, whether for value or with a bluff/semi-bluff, and I will fold. Therefore, just calling is -EV. If I were able to say, with some reliability, 'I think that if I call this, one the turn he will bet he good hands but just check his bluff/semi-bluff most of the time,' then I would call. In this case, I didn't think so. Note that I was prepared to say: If I raise here, I think he will reraise the strong hands, call the draws, and fold the total bluffs. If he has a draw and it misses on the turn, I believe he will check to me, at which point I can choose either to check behind or continue to pressure. The line of reasoning has nothing to do with making poor decisions later on. It is recognizing that, later on, I'm going to be forced to make another decision without enough information, and I know how I will choose unless something unexpected happens. What I expect to happen in the future is a big part of my present EV calculation. [/ QUOTE ] Well we have to disagree. For me calling>raising>>>>folding. I don't mind raising but calling is just fine. As for saying that villian will almost certainly fire again - with a made hand, a semi-bluff, or air - well, I don't know why you say that. With most decent-ish players how they react on the turn after being called gives a lot more info. I really don't see many players simply betting the turn strong just because the bet the flop OOP. Also, thinking that villian will simply push any really good hand if raised, cold call draws only, and fold bluffs seems slightly optimistic to say the least. Talk of extra "information" gained by raising is so often miss-placed.
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