Zeebo Theorem Hand

[Velocity]

For those of you who don't know, the Zeebo Theorem (ala CaptZeebo from HSNL) is that no one ever folds a full house when a board has trips showing.


PartyPoker Speed Tournament, Big Blind is t60 (10 handed) Converter on pregopoker.com

UTG (t2000)
Hero (t2000)
MP1 (t2000)
MP2 (t1166)
MP3 (t1782)
CO+1 (t1940)
CO (t1860)
Button (t939)
SB (t3099)
BB (t3214)

Preflop: Hero is in UTG+1 with 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
<font color="gray">UTG folds</font>, Hero calls t60, <font color="gray">MP1 folds</font>, <font color="gray">MP2 folds</font>, <font color="gray">MP3 folds</font>, <font color="gray">CO+1 folds</font>, CO calls t60, <font color="gray">Button folds</font>, SB calls t30, BB checks

Flop: (t240) 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB checks, BB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets t125</font>, CO calls t125, <font color="gray">SB folds</font>, <font color="gray">BB folds</font>

Turn: (t490) 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, CO checks

River: (t490) 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
<font color="red">Hero bets t1815</font>


Any thoughts? Mine are in white. <font color="white">
Preflop: I limp, which I don't like to do, but I don't like raising because that will often lead me to playing a big pot oop with a vulnerable hand. I also don't like folding, because 99 has some value to it. I might limp 88 here too, but 77 is probably getting mucked.

Flop: Apart from hitting my set, this is one of the best flops I could've hoped for. I bet thinking I will take the pot down. Plan is to fold if anyone raises me, instaprestomucking if SB or BB checkraises.

Turn: Well, he has something, or thinks I'm completely full of it. He will bet if he was floating the flop, but probably not if he has a small piece of it, as he'll want to see a cheap showdown. He could have just smooth called on the flop with a 2, but I don't see him limping anything but A2 at this point, and A2 would very likely raise the flop.

River: I apply the Zeebo Thm. I feel he likes the board a bit. Either has a smaller pocket pair than mine, or made a pair on the board. He will likely call, but not raise a regular size bet. Since he won't raise, if I want his stack I have to overbet push, which looks like a bluff, which is why the theorem probably works. I pooooosh.</font>