Maths Question.

[scallop]

awesome cheers guys

[Ringmaster]

[ QUOTE ]
when he calls we win -21$, when he folds we win 14$

[/ QUOTE ]

This is incorrect. When he folds we make 18, our original raise (4), plus the amount he 3-bet (14). We also need to account for the blinds, but ignoring that for now a 0EV push requires

p = [96 - E(200)] / [18 + 96 - E(200)]

where:
p = fold equity required
E = pot equity versus villain's calling range

So, if he's calling with TT+, our equity is about 38% as you mentioned. Plugging this in for E we get:

p = [96 - (.38)(200)] / [18 + 96 - (.38)(200)]
p = .526

So we need him to fold a little over half the time. This means he needs to be 3-betting more than twice as many hand combos as he's calling with.

[kaby]

thx for the correction ringmaster, i can't believed i forgot that :/

[Ringmaster]

No problem. Your calcs look sound aside from that.