Week 3's lines that have not moved...

CutCreator · #1 09-21-2007, 10:43 AM

3 of the 5 BSP picks for the week (according to covers.com) have had lines that have not moved much.

78%+ is on Carolina -3.5 over ATLANTA. This line opened at -4 and then moved to -3.5?? What is going on with this line? Correct me if I am wrong, but it seems that the oddsmakers think that Atlanta will cover, so if that is the case then I should be looking to take Atlanta?

Next is DENVER -3 over Jacksonville with 70%+ in favor is Denver. This line has not moved since it has opened. Whats the deal here?

Next is Arizona +8.0 over BALTIMORE with 66%+ taking Arizona. This line if anything moved up (started at -7.5) even with the public on Arizona.

The other two games are the Colts -7 over TEXANS, with 70+% on the Colts, however this line has had some movement and with Andre Johnson out im staying away.

And then finally the Lions +6 over EAGLES with 65+% on the Lions. Are the oddsmakers begging you to take the Lions here?

David BB · #2 09-21-2007, 10:55 AM

I believe that the majority of the public money isn't being bet till sunday. A large % of the money bet at the moment is likely sharp money.

In my experience, if you like the underdog or you're looking to bet against public money, its best to hold your bet till just before the game starts.

zOrO2k6 · #3 09-21-2007, 04:49 PM

good advice. been there too.

zOrO2k6 · #4 09-22-2007, 08:33 AM

last week i hit 9 of 10 picks, here some of my week 3 picks. (not all) just my toughts.

Cards +9
Bills +16.5
Colts -6
Vikings +3
Chargers -5.5
49ers +9.5
Bengals +3.5
Raiders -3
Broncos -3
Panthers -3.5
Redskins -3.5
Cowboys +3

Rams, Saints and Dolphins tough ones, ain't gonna touch this games.

good luck ev1

BigD226 · #5 09-22-2007, 07:09 PM

I don't like most of the lines this week, but if I had to pick the five most attractive plays:

ATL +3.5
PIT -9.5
BUF +16.5
STL +4
DAL +3