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#1
10-11-2007, 03:29 AM
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($6) Bubble, all-in with FD.
Is this a marginal or terrible push? SB was pretty lag. I figured he would call.
PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t150 (4 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums) Button (t4405) SB (t5370) Hero (t1630) UTG (t2095) Preflop: Hero is BB with 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, SB completes, Hero checks. Flop: (t300) T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font> <font color="#CC3333">SB bets t150</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t1480</font>, SB calls t1330. 
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#3
10-11-2007, 12:43 PM
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Re: ($6) Bubble, all-in with FD.
You only have 9 spades + 3 queens = 12 outs at best which is like 48% chance to win, or you have just 9 outs and 36%.
Against a tight player that cbets a lot and probably has no ace I understand this move, but risking your whole 10BB stack on the bubble, most likely as an underdog when you know he is loose and will probably call makes no sense to me. I would just fold.
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#4
10-11-2007, 01:32 PM
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Re: ($6) Bubble, all-in with FD.
not horrible...just need more info on SB... has he completed from the small and led out frequently if so that I like the play. other wise just raise to 400 and fold to shove. or just call and see a turn card.
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#5
10-11-2007, 02:18 PM
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Re: ($6) Bubble, all-in with FD.
[ QUOTE ]
Is this a marginal or terrible push? SB was pretty lag. I figured he would call. [/ QUOTE ] He needs to fold here a significant % of the time for this to be correct. I'm sure someone here can come up with that % faster than I could but it's probably 45-50+%. That number'd be a little lower in a cash game vs here on the bubble. You don't gain much if he folds and bust more than 1/2 the time he calls. It's a little better if queens are outs but likely they arn't. I think I'd float the flop since you should get plenty of action when you hit.
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#6
10-11-2007, 02:53 PM
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Re: ($6) Bubble, all-in with FD.
If you think he will call almost always, then I think its best to call his min bet and get it in on any Q or club turn. I doubt he has an Ace here very often. You aren't far out of 3rd, and risking it all on a draw seems too risky. There should be better spots.
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