Value bet this river? - 55

[sharpie]

I have been betting here but it seems very thin and I wonder whether this is too thin of a spot. Even if we're ahead when called 55% of the time, we only have to be bluff raised a fraction of the time to lose all value (our bet shows .1BB expectation when we never get bluffraised, when we get bluffraised we lose 6.5BB vs checking behind, so we only need to be bluffraised 1/65 times to lose value).

Given the read it's debatable whether we're even ahead 55% of the time since he might even play a weak queen like this, and also while bluff check/raising the river is rare, this guy seems like the type who could be capable of it, at least a small fraction of the time.

[milesdyson]

i need an 8 with a kicker to bet against someone who fits this description. reminds me of the old days when you bet bet bet A5 on AT842, the guy calls down and pot ships to him

[Carmine]

Sharp the read is "timid about value betting and raising". So where does the concern about being bluff-raised even a small % from this player come from

[milesdyson]

Carmine,

[ QUOTE ]
I've seen him get out-of-line trying to steal a pot

[/ QUOTE ]

so he might try to steal the pot.