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#21
11-10-2007, 05:56 PM
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Re: His Range that beats me should be small
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] But the problem is you're equating getting max value to him betting one street and then just completely giving up and checking it down. Against an ABC tagfish, that may well happen with a decent number of hands. [/ QUOTE ] not what I'm doing [/ QUOTE ] Then what are you doing? That Q doesn't make a ton of difference in this hand. 
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#22
11-10-2007, 06:05 PM
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Re: His Range that beats me should be small
[ QUOTE ]
villain is 26/21/3 thru 100 hands. My image should be solid. Poker Stars, $1/$2 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 5 Players LeggoPoker Hand History Converter BB: $47.35 UTG: $209 CO: $449.65 BTN: $232.80 Hero (SB): $524.05 Pre-Flop: A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (SB) 2 folds, <font color="red">BTN raises to $7</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises to $26</font>, BB folds, BTN calls $19 Flop: ($54) T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players) [/ QUOTE ] I'm trying to maximize value from worse hands. This is almost always WA/WB.
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#23
11-10-2007, 06:13 PM
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Re: His Range that beats me should be small
Well let's give him a range for betting the flop:
TT/33/air(including like 88 etc)/AK/AQ/AT I think AA would check this back and AK might as well. QQ is never betting this flop, 33 might not really be in his range but I'm not sure. What about hearts like KQ/KJ/QJ/Ax of hearts? I think Ax hearts would prob check the flop but the other combo draws might bet. I think I'd have to call the turn again, or should we be shoving here instead? I guess I'm just saying I wouldn't fold the turn.
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#24
11-10-2007, 06:16 PM
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Re: His Range that beats me should be small
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] villain is 26/21/3 thru 100 hands. My image should be solid. Poker Stars, $1/$2 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 5 Players LeggoPoker Hand History Converter BB: $47.35 UTG: $209 CO: $449.65 BTN: $232.80 Hero (SB): $524.05 Pre-Flop: A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (SB) 2 folds, <font color="red">BTN raises to $7</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises to $26</font>, BB folds, BTN calls $19 Flop: ($54) T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players) [/ QUOTE ] I'm trying to maximize value from worse hands. This is almost always WA/WB. [/ QUOTE ] I'd agree with you much more if this were A9x instead of ATx. This is just a tough spot to be in. My own personal tendency if I take a line like this is to go all the way with it. C/C all three streets. I'm not sure if that's good or bad, but I know I wouldn't take that line with so many draws possible to beat me. soda
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#25
11-10-2007, 06:17 PM
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Re: His Range that beats me should be small
[ QUOTE ]
I'm trying to maximize value from worse hands. This is almost always WA/WB. [/ QUOTE ] I really don't mean to come off dickish, but that's not what you're DOING. You're coming up with some less weak sounding phrase for hoping he bets one street then completely gives up. You do minimize the amount you lose when behind here (well check/folding the flop saves even more but I hope nobody honestly considers that), but you're most definitely not extracting the most from worse hands by check/calling the flop and then check/folding the turn. An average 26/21 is more than capable of double barreling you here with a relatively wide range, especially since so many people play these spots exactly like you're doing. It's just massively +EV since hero is usually either trapping with a monster or sitting on a hand he's folding to a turn bet, and the vast majority of the time it's the latter. And if hero is capable of making marginal calls here then villain can adjust pretty quickly and easily.
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#26
11-10-2007, 06:24 PM
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Re: His Range that beats me should be small
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] I'm trying to maximize value from worse hands. This is almost always WA/WB. [/ QUOTE ] I really don't mean to come off dickish, but that's not what you're DOING. You're coming up with some less weak sounding phrase for hoping he bets one street then completely gives up. You do minimize the amount you lose when behind here (well check/folding the flop saves even more but I hope nobody honestly considers that), but you're most definitely not extracting the most from worse hands by check/calling the flop and then check/folding the turn. An average 26/21 is more than capable of double barreling you here with a relatively wide range, especially since so many people play these spots exactly like you're doing. It's just massively +EV since hero is usually either trapping with a monster or sitting on a hand he's folding to a turn bet, and the vast majority of the time it's the latter. And if hero is capable of making marginal calls here then villain can adjust pretty quickly and easily. [/ QUOTE ] Oh, I see what the problem is...you assumed I was trying to fold. No way am I folding.
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#27
11-10-2007, 06:27 PM
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Re: His Range that beats me should be small
Ahhhhhhh!!! That clears some things up! [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]
In that case, as played I just c/c again. A good chunk of your value is coming from his bluffs here - and c/r pushes them out. And like you mentioned it's likely wa/wb. When he's behind he's usually drawing extremely thin.
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#28
11-10-2007, 06:34 PM
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Re: His Range that beats me should be small
[ QUOTE ]
Ahhhhhhh!!! That clears some things up! [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img] In that case, as played I just c/c again. A good chunk of your value is coming from his bluffs here - and c/r pushes them out. And like you mentioned it's likely wa/wb. When he's behind he's usually drawing extremely thin. [/ QUOTE ] you realize he has less than a minraise left?
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#29
11-10-2007, 06:42 PM
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Re: His Range that beats me should be small
Yip. But if he knows he's behind (which a check raise would pretty clearly tell him) and has 2 outs or whatever then it doesn't matter if he's getting 5:1. Although it would definitely depend alot on how often he's willing to go for one more try on the river.
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#30
11-10-2007, 06:58 PM
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Re: His Range that beats me should be small
You can do it by math. Assume he has 3 outs on average when behind since sometimes he'll have 0, sometimes he'll have 5, lots of times 2,etc - whereas I'm not certain he keeps bluffing with something like JQ that has showdown value + lots of outs.
So he's 14.4:1 to improve. If you c/r the turn then you have an EV of the potsize or 220. If you c/c the turn planning to c/c the river then he sucks out 6.5%. So your EV is .935 * x + .065 * -(90+78.8) = y solving for y = 220, your break even expectation compared to turn c/r, gives 247. $27 more than the turn check raise EV. So you need to earn $27 more on the river on average. Since a river shove from him is $78, he needs to shove 34% of the time to make calling the turn higher EV than c/r the turn. So it just comes down to read/feeling. If you think he's taking a third stab 1/3rd of the time then c/c, otherwise c/r.
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