Read this before starting a "Who Do I pick in Survivor" Thread

[Dudd]

It's the NFL, you can't really predict much deep in the season. Who predicted the Saints being good last year, and how many people saved Carolina based on preseason hype? Not to mention with all the injuries that happen in the NFL, a team in week 7 can be much different than in week 1. If Peyton goes down at some point before your saving game, don't you wish you had used him when you knew he was healthy? Use the separation concept to give yourself a better chance at going forward with a smaller group of people, but I just look at the lines on a week to week basis since I don't feel like I can accurate predict who will be the largest favorite 10+ weeks in the future.

Also, I pick more against bad teams than with good teams. Usually there will be a few teams who are so bad that good teams are double digit point favorites and mediocre teams are at least 5+ point favs. For example, last year Oakland was a 7+ point dog in 8 of their last 10 games, jump on the ship and hope it goes down with you.

[kyro]

Dudd,

I agree you can't predict too much, this early, but I plan on revising and tweaking my list every week, but I think it's safe to say we know who the top 6-7 teams will be and who the bottom 6-7 teams will be, and those are the games you should try to lean to.

[Caldarooni]

You're just overthinking. Planning ahead is fine, people just cringe at the notion of saving teams for later. The separation concept is important to maximize equity, but its only part of the puzzle which you seem to understand. Of course, it is the most important [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[chaseUdown]

anybody like JAC this week? 10.5 point favs at home against ATL.

[kyro]

[ QUOTE ]
You're just overthinking. Planning ahead is fine, people just cringe at the notion of saving teams for later. The separation concept is important to maximize equity, but its only part of the puzzle which you seem to understand. Of course, it is the most important [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

I meant to include this in my post, but I wouldn't say I necessarily "save" teams so much as I look for a week that I think they would be my best fit. If that is in Week 2, then I'll pick them for week 2, and if it's Week 10, then I'll "save" them for Week 10, but I try not to sacrifice too much if anything in the earlier weeks.

[kyro]

[ QUOTE ]
anybody like JAC this week? 10.5 point favs at home against ATL.

[/ QUOTE ]

That line kinda baffles me.

[chaseUdown]

ATL is just terrible.

[kyro]

[ QUOTE ]
ATL is just terrible.

[/ QUOTE ]

I know they are. I guess I don't understand why everyone seems to think Jacksonville is a really good team. I didn't understand the Tenn line either.

Picking Jax as a lock, ever, just really worries me. I felt this way before last week, too. They seem to like giving good teams a run for their money, and then looking like crap against bad teams.

[Nez477]

[ QUOTE ]
anybody like JAC this week? 10.5 point favs at home against ATL.

[/ QUOTE ]

I would except they scare me

There are two games better than this one, maybe 3 or 4

[kyro]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
anybody like JAC this week? 10.5 point favs at home against ATL.

[/ QUOTE ]

I would except they scare me

There are two games better than this one, maybe 3 or 4

[/ QUOTE ]

Word for word my thoughts. I'm pretty sure we are thinking of the same two games, and possibly the same 3 or 4.