NLTRN - $20 reg - Preflop decision (sorry)

[bbbushu]

Seat 1: BlownSpeakers (1,400)
Seat 2: <font color="blue">badtimingaments</font> (1,600)
<font color="blue">badtimingaments</font> posts the small blind of 25
BlownSpeakers posts the big blind of 50
The button is in seat #2
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to <font color="blue">badtimingaments</font> [T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]]
<font color="blue">badtimingaments </font>raises to 125
BlownSpeakers raises to 1,400, and is all in
<font color="blue">badtimingaments </font>

have you ever played a villain who raised a few times preflop over the course of the match (maybe like 50 hands) but who was so passive you made this fold? usually i double-fist pump call with TT here bc villains at my level have already lost their minds by the time 25/50 rolls around ESPECIALLY if they have shown some activity preflop but here i really had to think about it. i could be GENERALLY overvaluing TT in this spot bc i'm a limit player or stupid or whatever. i also am thinking afterwards that this player was *so* passive that it might be better to just run the bastard over now that the blinds are higher. also villain's raise is very large and i am pretty confident i'll be flipping or behind most of the time making me think it's a fold in a vacuum, too.

anyhow thanks,
bbbushu

[jay_shark]

Don't fold .

There are 6 pairs of j's, q's,k's and a's out of 1225 possible combinations of hands (6*4/1225 ~ 1.9%)

This means that if his range only consisted of these cards , then he's raising about 1 hand out of every 50 hands . Since he's raised a few hands out of 50 , must mean that his range may be ~ the top 6 or 8 % of hands . Pokerstove the top 6 or 8 % of hands against pocket 10's and it should be a clear call .

[waxhax0rs]

[ QUOTE ]
Don't fold .

There are 6 pairs of j's, q's,k's and a's out of 1225 possible combinations of hands .

This is 6*4/1225 ~ 1.9% . This means that if his range only consisted of these cards , then he's raising about 1 hand out of every 50 hands . Since he's raised a few hands out of 50 , must mean that his range may be ~ the top 6 or 8 % of hands .

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lol, simply raising is different than 3betting allin. I would think about it for a while and probably not be able to bring myself to fold even though a fold might be correct here. Also we're almost a deadeven flip against the top 8.1% of hands.

[jay_shark]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Don't fold .

There are 6 pairs of j's, q's,k's and a's out of 1225 possible combinations of hands .

This is 6*4/1225 ~ 1.9% . This means that if his range only consisted of these cards , then he's raising about 1 hand out of every 50 hands . Since he's raised a few hands out of 50 , must mean that his range may be ~ the top 6 or 8 % of hands .

[/ QUOTE ]
lol, simply raising is different than 3betting allin. I would think about it for a while and probably not be able to bring myself to fold even though a fold might be correct here.

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Of course it's different but there is a significant overlay . Many players tend to play tight in the opening rounds and open up considerably . Don't be fooled as I know many players who play this way . Nicho?

I couldn't possibly fold pocket 10's here given the pot odds you're receiving .

[jay_shark]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Don't fold .

There are 6 pairs of j's, q's,k's and a's out of 1225 possible combinations of hands .

This is 6*4/1225 ~ 1.9% . This means that if his range only consisted of these cards , then he's raising about 1 hand out of every 50 hands . Since he's raised a few hands out of 50 , must mean that his range may be ~ the top 6 or 8 % of hands .

[/ QUOTE ]
lol, simply raising is different than 3betting allin. I would think about it for a while and probably not be able to bring myself to fold even though a fold might be correct here. Also we're almost a deadeven flip against the top 8.1% of hands.

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Yes we're dead even against the top 8 % but that doesn't mean that a call is bad . There is dead money in the pot and you don't need to be a favorite to make a profitable call .

[waxhax0rs]

8% is probably too wide was my point. It's definitely close, but I'm just saying if the opponent is as nitty as the OP makes him seem then then it might be more like the top 4%, against which we have about 41.3% equity, which would make it a marginally bad call.

[jay_shark]

I think the call is very very thin . I don't think you profit very much or lose very much from calling or folding .

[soop]

The fact that he's a nit at the early blind levels means NOTHING once the blinds hit 25-50. I think there's plenty of people who play tight at the early levels but push all sorts of crap once the blinds go up.

I don't really think it's close at all. I might limit myself to one fist pump though.

[Deewhizzle]

Well, i wouldnt limit this to a single fist pump. there are only 4 hands that are beating you at this moment, and if hes really a nit, he isnt shoving any of them, he will want to try and extract as much money from you as possible, and the odds of you calling his random looking shove are thin so it would in many peoples eyes ,be a waste to shove here. so this is i jump out of my seat and hope that my tens can run faster than his ak-a10. i suppose due to the math that SOMETIMES you are gonna see jj-aa, but i think that yor are gonna get your money in as a favorite 80% of the time or so. i guess you can check the math in jaysharks post, i didnt read it, though im sure the math is in favor of calling by a small margin....

[bbbushu]

thanks guys - i did call but it's the first time in awhile where i actually thought about folding a hand this strong preflop. nice to know that its not totally nutso [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]