calling preflop 4bets

[cmyr]

so i'm pretty sure he's got AA and he's stacking off if I hit. Given that i'm putting in half my stack PF, and can play well on the flop, is this an easy call?

Pot Limit Omaha Ring game
Blinds: $5/$10
6 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $1734.47
UTG+1: $3935.48
CO: $2220.25
Button: $910.00
SB: $1119.50
Hero: $1052.00

Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is BB with 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
2 folds, <font color="#cc0000">CO raises to $35</font>, Button folds, SB calls, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $130</font>, <font color="#cc0000">CO raises to $455</font>, SB folds, Hero ???

[chucky]

Will hero fold any hand other than set on flop? You hit set 27% of time on flop, so as long as you dont mind losing half your stack the times when you dont hit, you make a slight profit.

[VTNC]

Easy fold

[donkeykong2]

ok, you call 320 $ to win the pot (900) and the remaining 650, so 1550 in total. this has to work around 20% of the time to be good. chucky said u hit a set 27% of the time, the problem here is that u don t always win when you have hit a set. i would guess u lose around 20% of the time if u hit a set which means u win 27%-5%=22% and lose everything 5% of the time. net 17%.
only set mining probably isnt profitable here but if you can play the straight and flush draws at least a bit profitable this is a breakeven call.

[Silent A]

As a starter, the pot will be $942 and you'll have $597 left behind. So, you'll need 597/(942+597+597) = 0.28 equity to call. You'll get this equity or more about 50% of the time, and when you have it you'll average about 65% equity. Therefore, the EV of a call here is:

EV = (0.5)(-325) + (0.325)(+1214) + (0.175)(-922) = +70.7

So it should be profitable, if he has random AAxx and (more importantly) you can correctly determine when you have odds to call. I think it's fairly likely that you will sometimes be calling when you don't actually have the odds, but it's hard to imagine a scenario where you will fold when you actually have sufficient odds - unless your opponent doesn't really have AAxx.

Let's say you call 60% of the flops, and on the extra 10% your average equity is 20%. Now, the EV of a call is:

EV = (0.4)(-325) + (0.325)(+1214) + (0.175)(-922) + (0.02)(+1214) + (0.08)(-922) = +53.72

In fact, to get this down to negative numbers you have to make bad calls 12% of the time when drawing absolutely dead. Even then, the total EV is only -$1.

I think the math is clear on this one, easy call.

[Silent A]

I should further point out that there are a lot of flops (about 30%) that will give hero 20 to 25%. Even if he calls all these flops (meaning he calls a full 80% of the time) he will still realize a small +EV (about $10).

Oh, and upon further review, Hero's equity when he can make a call is actually closer to 62% (not 65%). This lowers the equity of perfect flop play to about +$50, but not enough to lower it less than zero unless Hero calls virtually every flop, or folds all his straight and flush draws.

The reason for this is that Hero only needs 43% equity to push pre-flop and break even. He actually has about 40%, so he doesn't have to be anywhere near perfect on the flop to make money with a call.

That said, no matter how well Hero plays post flop, there is no way he can realize enough profit to compensate for his inital raise (though I'm not saying this to criticize this play - I'm sure AAxx wasn't villains only raising hand).

[donkeykong2]

alright, but given his ev of a call is 53.72, he has already lost around 80 in ev which seems to make the preflop raise kind of spewy or not?

[Silent A]

[ QUOTE ]
alright, but given his ev of a call is 53.72, he has already lost around 80 in ev which seems to make the preflop raise kind of spewy or not?

[/ QUOTE ]

Only if AAxx was villain's only raising hand, which is not very likely at this level.

[fnord_too]

I think your 3-bet is a big mistake. If I 3-bet here I usually make it like 70-80, so that I don't price myself out if they repot. Here I think you have to fold since you will have to call a lot of flops where you may or may not be getting the right price. For instance, are you calling if two diamonds come? What about 562r? You are going to flop a set just under 25% here (assuming two aces are dead). Also, you don't have 100% equity there and assuming you hit a 7 or 8, he will hit an ace by the river about 18% of the time (sometimes on the flop, slightly more than half of that 18%). If we assume the side cards are a wash, that is the times you flop a straight are negated by the times he flops something to beat your made hands with his sides, I just don't see there being a positive expectation here.

Unless...
at least one of the three big stacks is really bad, and increasing your stack is worth more than just the immediate money. For instance, if everyone is racing to bust the 4k stack because he is spewing, maybe it is a good idea to gamble it up here so you have a better chance of getting more of his chips before he busto's.

But, I still think if you are going to three bet even in that scenario you should raise less making a call a much more attractive option.

[donkeykong2]

yeah, but if villain raises here like 15 % of the time and has aces about 3% of the time, he will be reraised 20% of the time and has to gain a lot of equity in case he isnt reraised.