AA turn spot

[scott2130]

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Second, he capped the flop. Then when you take into account how he did it, (you missed this) you should have pause. Villain made MP1 call 2 bets cold not once but twice, driving him out of the pot. If there was a flush draw, MP1 was on it and he is now gone.

Ummmmm... no.


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Ok, then what is your theory? As is, your post is worthless.


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I have to agree that a FD would not fold here in this big pot.

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I said IF there was a FD. I am not trying to put the button on a hand. As played I didn't put anyone on a FD.

[bravos1]

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Second, he capped the flop. Then when you take into account how he did it, (you missed this) you should have pause. Villain made MP1 call 2 bets cold not once but twice, driving him out of the pot. If there was a flush draw, MP1 was on it and he is now gone.

Ummmmm... no.


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Ok, then what is your theory? As is, your post is worthless.


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I have to agree that a FD would not fold here in this big pot.

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I said IF there was a FD. I am not trying to put the button on a hand. As played I didn't put anyone on a FD.

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But this makes no sense. IF there was a FD, it was not MP1... MP1 is NEVER folding a FD here.

[Harv72b]

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His 7.3 is based on 580-something hands. How do you know he's not really a 9-10? or a 5-6?

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580 hands is more than enough to get a pretty accurate fix on PFR percentage.

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Really? Margin of error for a sample of 580 is plus or minus 3.4% (90% confidence interval). This means that the actual PFR could be anywhere between 4.9% and 10.7% (pretty much exactly what Yerma said).

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Meh, I should've quoted rather than replying to the post based on memory. Dropping or adding a couple of percentage points from his PFR really doesn't matter for this hand, because:
A) 88 is going to be in his range almost regardless (unless we drop it to around 5%, which I think is unrealistic based on his other numbers).
2) The overall numbers correspond almost exactly to what you'd expect from a textbook, ABC TAG player, which after a 580 hand sample means he probably is.
C) There's always an amount of uncertainty surrounding any single action in an online poker game, what with the potential for misclicks, tilt-raises, etc.

So basically, I stand by my point that it's a big enough sample to get a pretty accurate fix on PFR. I retract my implication that the original point claimed it wasn't. [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

[scott2130]

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I said IF there was a FD. I am not trying to put the button on a hand. As played I didn't put anyone on a FD.


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But this makes no sense. IF there was a FD, it was not MP1... MP1 is NEVER folding a FD here.




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As played I didn't put anyone on a FD.


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Is reading comprehension a lost skill these days?

[bravos1]

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I said IF there was a FD. I am not trying to put the button on a hand. As played I didn't put anyone on a FD.


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But this makes no sense. IF there was a FD, it was not MP1... MP1 is NEVER folding a FD here.




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As played I didn't put anyone on a FD.


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Is reading comprehension a lost skill these days?

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No, but I think critical thinking probably is... Why bring it up if you never put anyone on a FD. It doesn't matter if you think there is one or not. You said IF there was one, MP1 just folded it... I just said having that thought is insane whether you actually put anyone on one or not.

I'm pretty much done w/ this thread if you don't want to address what I brought up in my response to your other post.

[bozlax]

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Boz, I have to disagree with you a bit regarding this hand getting too much attention. These hands are great examples of how we should be putting our opponents on reasonable ranges and acting accordingly. I did a post a while back talking about this same type of scenario and other scenarios such as getting raised on the river when you hold AA on a 66224 (or similar board) by someone who capped PF and why we should be 3betting and NEVER contemplating a fold in that scenario.

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My point is that anyone that's been on this forum for more than 15 posts that thinks this turn is a good opportunity for a c/r hasn't been paying much attention (I remember your earlier thread). The fact that the obligatory nOOb half-troll is hanging around arguing with you doesn't actually affect anything, tho.

Edited to take out action that wasn't there. Early, more coffee.

[scott2130]

I have printed the entire thread and will try to present my thoughts clearly. I didn’t mean to attack you bravos1 and I am sorry if you took it that way. I was trying to give another point of view and at the time only you and knockonwood responded and knockonwood seemed to take your opinion when he said;

“Bravos’ point was that the guy’s range is heavily skewed i.e. 95% likely to be big PP’s …” ”You are being results orientated playing the hand any other way than what has been suggested”

Then by editing multiple posts, knockonwood gave me the impression he was back peddling not you.

This thread has expanded beyond the OP question but I am enjoying and learning from the deeper thoughts and ideas in a micro limit forum. We could go off on the most obvious possibilities for all players in the hand but I think that is taking it too far. In fact, I want to try to reduce the scope already to just Hero and the Villain. I know I opened the door to a flush draw for the 3rd player but it doesn’t matter what he had, he folded. To help put it to bed I will agree that if he had a strong FD then he would not have folded.

To answer the original question I would bet/call the turn if raised and check/call the river. If the villain didn’t raise the turn then I would bet the river for value. IMO a c/r on the turn is not a good idea because of the aggression on the flop, the possibility of facing a third bet, and the possibility of giving a free card.

Now why I gave that advice is based on my experiences and thoughts, if yours differs, great, we have a discussion. When I first read the responses they were limited to two concepts, the villain has a 7.3PFR and he raised pre-flop. No other thoughts seemed forth coming, you made your read and you were sticking with it to the river. I took this as you missed, didn’t care about, didn’t think about, or didn’t want to waste anymore energy on this tread and the other information presented went out the window. I am pointing out that there is more information then those two things and put together you can come up with 88 or 77 enough to play it like I suggested.

I agree with you that his pre-flop raise puts his range on TT+ 95% of the time if that is all the information you have but you have more. He didn’t cap and hero has AA, so I can’t heavily weight it to AA or KK. My range is more weighted to AKs – ATs, and JJ – 88. On the flop he makes the 3rd player cold call two bets twice, driving him out the second time. IMO if he had AKs – ATs he would not have capped the flop, but would have called the 3-bet in an attempt to keep in the third player.

My reasoning was that if he had the FD his first raise would have been to build the pot. With 3 players and having 35% equity this is smart but the second raise risks driving out the 3rd player and him now putting in 50% of the money with the same 35% equity. I took this as a defensive raise. So I am now discounting AKs – ATs and bringing back JJ – 77. I am including 88 and 77 because of the defensive raise and the fact that his hand is now good enough to cap with on the flop but not pre flop. I muddied the waters with my 78 comment. He would protect two pair this way but the pre-flop raise eliminates it.

With 88 and 77 now possible, I want more information to see if I am behind so I would bet out on the turn not c/r. If he calls I put him on JJ – 99 but if he raises then 88 and 77 are tops on my list. Without further reads I check/call the river but if I had a read I may fold the river unimproved.

Again, IMO the responses were incomplete and failed to take the later information into account. My take on the hand lead me to put enough weight on 88 and 77 to not risk a c/r on the turn. I gave the OP my opinion and explained why.

[bozlax]

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To answer the original question I would bet/call the turn if raised and check/call the river. If the villain didn’t raise the turn then I would bet the river for value.
...

I am pointing out that there is more information then those two things and put together you can come up with 88 or 77 enough to play it like I suggested.

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Scott, the point is that you don't play it this way because you CAN put him on 88/77, you play it this way because you CAN'T take him off OCs + draw or 99-AA. You do realize that you're a 5:1 favorite if his range is JUST 77-KK, right? Add in AKs/AQs/KQs in hearts or spades (obv not AsKs, ldo) and it goes to like 6:1. If you're putting him on 88/77 enough to deviate from a bet/call line, you need to be calling down.

[knockonwood]

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I have printed the entire thread and will try to present my thoughts clearly. I didn’t mean to attack you bravos1 and I am sorry if you took it that way. I was trying to give another point of view and at the time only you and knockonwood responded and knockonwood seemed to take your opinion when he said;

“Bravos’ point was that the guy’s range is heavily skewed i.e. 95% likely to be big PP’s …” ”You are being results orientated playing the hand any other way than what has been suggested”

Then by editing multiple posts, knockonwood gave me the impression he was back peddling not you.

This thread has expanded beyond the OP question but I am enjoying and learning from the deeper thoughts and ideas in a micro limit forum. We could go off on the most obvious possibilities for all players in the hand but I think that is taking it too far. In fact, I want to try to reduce the scope already to just Hero and the Villain. I know I opened the door to a flush draw for the 3rd player but it doesn’t matter what he had, he folded. To help put it to bed I will agree that if he had a strong FD then he would not have folded.

To answer the original question I would bet/call the turn if raised and check/call the river. If the villain didn’t raise the turn then I would bet the river for value. IMO a c/r on the turn is not a good idea because of the aggression on the flop, the possibility of facing a third bet, and the possibility of giving a free card.

Now why I gave that advice is based on my experiences and thoughts, if yours differs, great, we have a discussion. When I first read the responses they were limited to two concepts, the villain has a 7.3PFR and he raised pre-flop. No other thoughts seemed forth coming, you made your read and you were sticking with it to the river. I took this as you missed, didn’t care about, didn’t think about, or didn’t want to waste anymore energy on this tread and the other information presented went out the window. I am pointing out that there is more information then those two things and put together you can come up with 88 or 77 enough to play it like I suggested.

I agree with you that his pre-flop raise puts his range on TT+ 95% of the time if that is all the information you have but you have more. He didn’t cap and hero has AA, so I can’t heavily weight it to AA or KK. My range is more weighted to AKs – ATs, and JJ – 88. On the flop he makes the 3rd player cold call two bets twice, driving him out the second time. IMO if he had AKs – ATs he would not have capped the flop, but would have called the 3-bet in an attempt to keep in the third player.

My reasoning was that if he had the FD his first raise would have been to build the pot. With 3 players and having 35% equity this is smart but the second raise risks driving out the 3rd player and him now putting in 50% of the money with the same 35% equity. I took this as a defensive raise. So I am now discounting AKs – ATs and bringing back JJ – 77. I am including 88 and 77 because of the defensive raise and the fact that his hand is now good enough to cap with on the flop but not pre flop. I muddied the waters with my 78 comment. He would protect two pair this way but the pre-flop raise eliminates it.

With 88 and 77 now possible, I want more information to see if I am behind so I would bet out on the turn not c/r. If he calls I put him on JJ – 99 but if he raises then 88 and 77 are tops on my list. Without further reads I check/call the river but if I had a read I may fold the river unimproved.

Again, IMO the responses were incomplete and failed to take the later information into account. My take on the hand lead me to put enough weight on 88 and 77 to not risk a c/r on the turn. I gave the OP my opinion and explained why.

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I don't back pedal, I'm just not a very gud spella

[scott2130]

To be honest, No I didn't. That is a weakness that I am trying to fix.

So what you are saying is that even if I think he has me beat, I should call him down because the odds are he will have those other hands enough times to profitably call. Calling one more bet is a smaller mistake then folding.

Thank you.